Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jamaatta]

And I'm not entirely sure the first cities will be in the US. They'll be wherever they can get regulatory approval the fastest.

Maybe these Tesla jobs are relevant for the question?

"A look at Tesla’s Careers Page shows that job listings for Prototype Vehicle Operators have been posted for Brooklyn Park, Minnesota; Miami, Florida; Littleton, Colorado; Bellevue, Washington; Draper, Utah; Jacksonville, Florida; Houston, Texas; Elgin, Illinois; Peabody, Massachusetts; Arlington, Virginia; Atlanta, Georgia; Clarkston, Michigan; Bridgeville, Pennsylvania; Lenexa, Kansas; and Farmer’s Branch, Texas, as of writing."

Tesla boosts its data collection team with hiring ramp for Prototype Vehicle Operators

Tesla seems to be putting a lot of effort into boosting its vehicle data collection team, with the electric vehicle maker going live with job openings for Prototype Vehicle Operators across multiple states in the US. A look at Tesla’s Careers Page shows that job listings for Prototype Vehicle...

www.teslarati.com

 

[DarkandStormy]

Thanks for the great reminder even though you’re trying to talk sense and logic to someone who’s here for purely dishonest reasons. Still, someone else may learn from your post making it not a wasted effort.

I guess because I don't post "Elon is our savior" every day I'm here for dishonest reasons?

Lol

 

[DarkandStormy]

Layoffs allegedly incoming.

 

[Andy O]

What safety features have ever been mandated to be provided for free by manufacturers? Seat belts? ABS? Airbags?
This is an absurd idea

First, I said the opposite of the implication that Tesla should provide FSD for free.

Second, some apparently "free" safety features are the police, fire, and military services, fluoridated drinking water, vaccinations, traffic control devices and structures. There are many services that the end user doesn't pay for directly. The public good benefits from government organizing these things, and it may be, to my mind, that the public good would be served by governments' buying FSD safety features from the developers.

The future holds this, whether this route is taken or not. In 100 years people will be astonished that humans were once allowed to drive on public roads at highway speeds without an electronic system protecting them.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Missing for a system that can operate without a human in the drivers seat?

A complete OEDR, which it does not have presently
A system to perform the dynamic DDT fallback task, which is does not have presently
Defining the ODD of the L4 system (which will almost certainly at least include weather, of not other factors)

L4 is not just "L2 that gets really good"- there's fundamental functional pieces that do not exist in an L2 system that are required for L4.


Feels like we JUST had this conversation in this forum like... a couple days ago... for roughly the 793rd time.... so I guess try 794 at suggesting folks wanting to understand this stuff in detail instead either go here where this stuff is discussed ad nauseum

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

Or go here and actually read SAE J3016

https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/54/02/2d5919914cfe9549e79721b12e66/j3016-202104.pdf

Thought I'd share in the joy and help confirm what we see happening as an investor. What's all this?

Sorry if I don't understand your jargon or rules. I'll go check out and thanks. Maybe more specificity would help, it's a big doc and you know I have trouble with even some of unk45 posts!

OK I'm back. I saw my last version FSD exhibiting OEDR (Object and event detection and response). It was a small box on the Hyw that it weaved around. Have it recorded, I'll review now, hang-on...

Found it. Car stayed to the right until it passed that box… on my PRIOR version of FSD.

I'm responding in this thread specifically because of your obvious pessimism. Of course it's not ready yet, and I never said it was.

No change in prediction. I will post updates if needed in the other thread.

 

[jerry33]

FSD V12.3.4 can now see most dips

How do I use this on Social Media?

 

[AndrewZ]

What safety features have ever been mandated to be provided for free by manufacturers? Seat belts? ABS? Airbags?
This is an absurd idea.

That’s not what I’m saying. How are autopilot and the associated passive safety features included by default in the cars?

I’m saying Tesla wouldn’t lock things like this, that are supposed to save lives, behind a monthly subscription. I don’t think the leadership team would do that, they’ll break them off and make them standard in the cars and use it to further market them as the safest vehicles on the road.

The economic benefits of robotaxis etc are a different story, not safety features that are a mere software lock away because all the vehicles already have the hardware. There will not be a situation where we’re like “oh that pedestrian’s life could have been saved, if only the driver made enough money to afford the $99/month subscription”. That’s not how the world works.

 

[SOULPEDL]

How do I use this on Social Media?

Right? Maybe then I'd come back (to social media), as I literally boycotted all about 2 yrs ago after a hack, spoof, ghost, whatever they're called. The secret was to turn off notifications. Oh, they hate that...

People can still find me, text, or call. Just ask the election people, they clearly know how to get a hold of me.

 

[Discoducky]

What year and model is your vehicle, and what hardware are you running?

I got 12.3.4 yesterday on 2020 LR Y with hw 3.0; did a drive yesterday and this morning. I do the same "challenging" routes to compare/contrast software versions. Can't say I notice any improvements from 12.3.3.

The car somehow got a school zone (15 mph) incorrect and now shows 40 mph speed limit, although at least it still drives at a speed that won't garner a traffic ticket.

Automatic speed offset is still too fast, will go 38 mph on a 25 mph road, for example. I think auto speed offset is a good idea in principle, but for now I feel that whenever the vehicle is in FSD it shouldn't go 5 mph over the posted speed limit. When it drives fast on a slow road it tends to take corners too fast and brake suddenly, causing excessive wear and tear on tires, brakes, suspension, etc. I realize this is a very subjective statement, but I want to maximize vehicle/tire longevity, not waste energy, and not waste money. Also, one would never drive this way with a stranger in their car, or their boss, or their elderly mother, etc.

It still messes up one intersection quite badly--I was really hoping it would be fixed because I give feedback every single time I drive this section, for years now--a right turn onto an in-town 40mph road (from a 25 mph road with a school), but the car still recognizes it as a 55mph highway after all these years. So the car just rips out of the corner, close to breaking traction, then will speed up to 55mph then suddenly back down to 40 when it comes up to the 40 mph traffic sign. Just a dangerous, illegal, hard-on-the-car, waste-of-money maneuver. Really wish Tesla could get the speed limit fixed here. I know they've got the ability to fix this.

Make and model has very little to do with how well it functions outside of the model possibly being spatially ego static and since S and X are wider it seems to keep right too far.

I have two vehicles, 2021 3 is on 12.3.3 and 2017 X is on 12.3.4 HW3 MCU

 

[cliff harris]

I know Elon is focused on robotaxis etc, but I wish he got more of a nudge from people outside Texas and the US in general.
What I see of FSD V12.3.4 is amazing, and as I've paid for it up front, I'd like it here in the UK right now. I can assure you that without ANY improvement from the current version, 12.3.4 would be a HUGE attention grabber here in Europe, where 'FSD' take rate is abysmal because its crippled.

I know its a different department entirely, but the regulatory lobbying people at Tesla need a kick from elon to push for FSD outside the US. People who have access to V12 right now have probably forgotten how much better it is than the standard 'autopilot with traffic light recognition' which is all we are offered here.

Get lobbying elon!

 

[heltok]

One nice thing with the trial month. People will not buy any other brand:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779234123384529048

 

[CorneliusXX]

Who would ever agree to finance tesla by buying RT that could be osborned tomorrow?

Every major bank, especially if the payback period is [guessing here] less than a year while margins are high prior to market saturation.

 

[kbM3]

Great teardown CT video
.

Well done, and clearly shows many advantages of Tesla’s technology versus the competition.

 

[Knightshade]

Thought I'd share in the joy and help confirm what we see happening as an investor. What's all this?

it's an attempt to education investors on what's actually required for a driverless system, versus folks who think it's just "current FSD needs a lot less interventions"- which is not the case. There's multiple, specific, things needed that do not currently exist in the system beyond that... Hence why "RT any day now" might not accurately reflect the reality from a legal and engineering perspective.

Sorry if I don't understand your jargon or rules. I'll go check out and thanks. Maybe more specificity would help, it's a big doc and you know I have trouble with even some of unk45 posts!

I was pretty specific on at least 3 things that current FSD lacks to be capable of driverless?

OK I'm back. I saw my last version FSD exhibiting OEDR (Object and event detection and response). It was a small box on the Hyw that it weaved around. Have it recorded, I'll review now, hang-on...

Found it. Car stayed to the right until it passed that box… on my PRIOR version of FSD.

I'm responding in this thread specifically because of your obvious pessimism. Of course it's not ready yet, and I never said it was.

No change in prediction. I will post updates if needed in the other thread.

That's... not a complete OEDR.

That's "an OEDR that recognizes and reacts to at least one thing"

3.19 OBJECT AND EVENT DETECTION AND RESPONSE (OEDR)
The subtasks of the DDT that include monitoring the driving environment (detecting, recognizing, and classifying objects and events and preparing to respond as needed) and executing an appropriate response to such objects and events (i.e., as needed to complete the DDT and/or DDT fallback).

It needs to be able to detect, recognize, and classify all objects and events (and prepare to respond to them as needed, then executing that response) as might be encountered during the DDT (dynamic driving task). That doesn't mean "can recognize a box" it means "can recognize anything you need to be able to drive safely and legally" and there's a long list of such things the system currently either does not recognize at all, or does not respond to properly... (the most obviously being school buses, a myriad of traffic, school zone, and parking signs, potholes, and more).

The OEDR of FSD is larger than it once was, but it's still a fair distance from complete.

Lack of a complete OEDR is one of the things that limits a system to a maximum of L2 and requires there always be a human as the driver to perform the parts of this task the system can not (see note on page 31 under 5.3 for exact wording of this fact).... I listed two others as well in the previous post to which you replied.... one is the DDT fallback task... You can get to L3 without this one, but not L4 (meaning you still need the human to perform this task), and the last is a defined ODD... this is a documentation thing more than an engineering thing but will be the thing that tells us where RTs can be used or not, and to what degree... (for example an ODD might be "Any public road in dry weather or light rain" or it might be "public roads in these specific geofenced areas during daylight in any weather" or any of a myriad of possibilities- but it must be defined).

Again further discussion belongs, not here, but there:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[X Fan]

I did a search on Iran, this is all I could find, so I assume it hasn’t been discussed recently.

Attack on Israel is likely this weekend. Gettin a bit concerned. Anyone have a read on how it impacts TSLA or markets?

I see potential for the Israeli strike and a measure counter back at Iran. If that’s it, will only be a blip next week. Hope for zero escalation after that point. I assume it puts oil prices on notice, but just guessing. Thoughts?

Monday could be an ugly investment day.

 

[SOULPEDL]

One nice thing with the trial month. People will not buy any other brand:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779234123384529048

FSD Withdrawals - good, it's not just me.

I experienced this when I rented a MY, no FSD, and nearly rear ended someone in Fla 3 times in the first day. (I bet Tesla parsed this data out to come up with the 30 days free.)

This will hook some $ paying customers for sure just from that feeling alone. For a moment, you start to feel like you may not be able to drive as safely anymore. And it's more precisely the feeling of driving stoned or heavily distracted.

Some will lease FSD during their first day of withdrawals because of this feeling. But like most drugs, it doesn't last more than a couple days, so hit em hard with the bundle sales deal, like 3 months 10% savings or something so they can't resist. It's an immediate reward when they pay, such a drug! Play it Tesla, play it hard.

 

[Skipdd]

Sorry, but I disagree. When there are ZERO repeatable critical/safety disengagements from the ENTIRE fleet that signals/suggests that the current approach is working/scalable. Next step/milestone is explaining the fractional critical DEs from the 12 stack and remember we are NOT talking about sign issues as these are not yet implemented (aka road closed, school zone...etc)

If you have another suggestion, I'm all ears!

Well I have +/- data points from my use of it today. Plus: I have never used FSD on city streets before. It was mind blowing to have it take me to the gym on city roads to Interstate to city roads and into parking lot. Also equally blown minds in the gym from non-Tesla owners when I described it. Great brand advertising. Negative: It failed an unprotected left turn out of my neighborhood (different trip than to gym), started into the intersection then stopped in the intersection, with on coming car on the right and very angry driver, who proceeded to honk and follow me aggressively for awhile. Still, overall very useful. Not sure I want to repeat the experiment at that intersection, but perhaps I should. If I do, I will post it in the FSD thread.

Based on what I’ve seen so far, I would pay for FSD on subscription when I wanted to use it, e.g. month of a road trip. City streets capability is helpful. Looking forward to v12 on the interstate.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not all businesses have pulled their weight. Superchargers, service etc.

Check the 10-Q on that. Services and Other are profitable right now. Further, Elon has opened up the supercharger Network with the intent of becoming profitable. He aims for a 30% gross margin for the supercharger business.

Not sure that a singular Tesla Network is less of a monopoly if the vehicles are public owned. It will also take a while to be a monopoly in any one market.

The network is replaceable technology. Competitors already exist, for example Lyft and Uber, whereas Tesla will be the newcomer. On the other hand, if Tesla keeps its proprietary FSD technology to itself, that could lead to Monopoly concerns. This is why it's smart for Tesla to make the early announcement that it's willing to license its FSD technology. It immunizes the company against Monopoly claims.

 

[geometro]

Monday is going to be ugly for risk assets.

 

[AndrewZ]

Oil prices increasing could be good for the EV vs ICE dynamic but geopolitical inflation could be not good, energy prices included