Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GatorMeat]

It was vague because it was a half baked idea to try to save the stock since it was the worst performing in the S&P 500 this year outside of Boeing. Elon was asked directly for more details and he punted.

If they were planning on new models this year we'd have reports of prototype testing. There have been none. It can take up to a year for regulatory approval for a new model in the U.S. they could share details if that process has started. They didn't. If new models were coming this year don't you think they'd be taking customer deposits?

When they don't deliver anything new this year people will say "oh, that's Elon Time, being optimistic" when it's plainly obvious it's not going to happen from the moment it was announced.

Ron Baron was on CNBC in November, and said new model in 12-18 months. So it's not a new plan. His fund holds 30%+ of TSLA and 10% of SpaceX

 

[Artful Dodger]

TBH I still don't understand why Berlin isn't making model 3s.

I think it's capex. Model 3 requires a large number of robots to weld the underbody out of stamped sheet metal parts. The alternative is to come up with another mega casting specific to the smaller Model 3 body. They also could have done this in Fremont and Shanghai for the Highland refresh. They chose not to likely again because of Catholics [imma leave in this autocorrect spoonerism, it's a doozy]

 

[DarkandStormy]

TBF I also called you out, but WEIRDLY ENOUGH you didn't reply.

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My goodness, everyone here is so sensitive. You guys do realize I get like 17+ quoted notifications every time I log in, right? I simply don't have time to address every single one. If you want a specific answer send me a PM.

The question of cannibalization or the Osborne Effect is hard to prove, because a different reality would have occurred if the company did something different. Model 3 wasn't even fully ramped on 2019 so looking solely at total unts sold isn't prudent, imo. Tesla also continued changing the pricing on Model 3 throughout the last several years as well.

Seems like when Tesla doesn't announce something it's considered "smart" because they aren't "Osborning themselves" but when they do announce something (like the vague new, low-cost models) that concern is simply ignored.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Ron Baron was on CNBC in November, and said new model in 12-18 months. So it's not a new plan. His fund holds 30%+ of TSLA and 10% of SpaceX

Right, so not "possibly later this year" (2024). Thanks for confirming.

 

[EVMeister]

Ron Baron was on CNBC in November, and said new model in 12-18 months. So it's not a new plan. His fund holds 30%+ of TSLA and 10% of SpaceX

What do you mean by "holds 30%+ of TSLA"?

 

[Carl Raymond]

I expect a measurable boost in economic productivity due to autonomous driving. This will be due to people working and shopping while being transported. There may also be a further health dividend—beyond that from accidents averted

Yes. I’d add that FSD for people is the kick starter to FSD for goods. Amazon must already be looking at their fleet of electric vans and thinking: where’s the FSD computer?

Throw in humanoids aboard or at the end points and we’re going to see stuff moving A to B, without fuel, without labour. The cost of everything falls, right down every supply chain.

Except in places where FSD his been strangled with regulatory road blocks, cough Europe. They’ll work it out eventually.

 

[2daMoon]

That would be very very interesting. A shorter model Y, especially if its noticeably cheaper would be very popular in Europe, and Berlin is the obvious choice of where to manufacture it. TBH I still don't understand why Berlin isn't making model 3s. Seems bizarre to still ship those from shanghai.

Would it need to be narrower as well as shorter to address EU's trouble spots for the current Model Y?

 

[Knightshade]

My goodness, everyone here is so sensitive. You guys do realize I get like 17+ quoted notifications every time I log in, right? I simply don't have time to address every single one. If you want a specific answer send me a PM.

That's what makes the fact you ignored a direct question, quoting you, and challenging you to source your seemingly inaccurate claim..... but DID take the time to reply to something not even addressed to you because it let you poke at Elon, stand out as.... indicative of something.

The question of cannibalization or the Osborne Effect is hard to prove

Then it's extra weird you claimed it was a fact that happened.

Kudos I guess for admitting you can't support your claim even if it took extra effort to get you to do it

 

[AudubonB]

It's not a problem for universal only-means-one-thing signs like stop signs.

It's a major problem for signs where the words matter.

A lot of parking signs come immediately to mind where you have to know more than "that is a parking sign"-- you need to read the hours and days and lengths of time and other conditions parking is allowed or not.

Ditto with school zone signs that are also hour/day dependent and not at all universal.

Another one is signs like road closed to through traffic, but local traffic is ok... maybe your destination is in that local traffic only area-- if you just reject because you see a generic road-closed you'll never get to your destination.

Lots of other examples I'm sure (and even more in other countries)







I think that's pretty reasonable for good-enough functionality as far as following basic rules of the road and getting a functional L2 deployed... stuff like "drives and reacts like local humans do" stuff, one of the hallmarks of why people like 12.x so much, I think that's a lot harder to get in simulation vs real world data.

Let's see whether it does better, worse or the same as a human with what one encounters on the Denali Highway:

 

[cliff harris]

Would it need to be narrower as well as shorter to address EU's trouble spots for the current Model Y?

I don't think that any tweaking of the model Y would completely address the gap in the lineup that European city drivers are looking for. Its just way too big.
The model Y is 83.8" wide. The MG4 is 72.3". Thats a big difference.
I think a smaller model Y would definitely sell well, but ideally Tesla bit the bullet and release a proper compact car, with a compact car price.

 

[Todd Burch]

If 2 years from now TSLA has gone up significantly due to FSD, Energy, Model 2, etc...then apart from retiring filthy rich and hiring many wives for sport I'm going to fondly remember Gary Black's comment that he wished his fund had sold 100% of their TSLA instead of most of it.

I love it when a short-sighted Wall Street throws out the baby with the bath water.

 

[traxila]

I'm still digesting the earnings transcript. Overall positive, but I think does not change earnings estimates for 2024 and 2025 too much in my first guess.

First question though, I keep seeing people making excuses that Q1 was down due to supply constraints.

The CFO literally said:



"Uncertain macroeconomic environment" is, IMO, a code word that consumers were skittish. Aka they weren't willing to spend a lot of money on EVs.

Not sure we've seen data that it is changing in Q2. Seasonality changes should improve demand so certainly deliveries will be higher than Q1, but not sure how much inventory drawdown they can do?

Certainly, if there is both high production / deliveries and inventory drawdown in Q2, then we can state Q1 truly had a lot of supply issues.

Earnings estimates mean nothing for SP if the belief in the grand future can be reignited.

Companies always have this problem when they start turning profits. Suddenly the bean counters are in charge sabotaging the mojo and proclaiming grand illusions.

They are usually right.

Can EM convince majority again that Tesla is inevitable?

 

[KBF]

Any update on Semi. It seems to have completely stalled and no end in sight?

All the noise on thousands of reservations and a few deliveries to PepsiCo have all gone quiet... Even investors have lost interest in this product?

You just need to read every single post (save time by putting all the trolls on ignore so the actual investors who post real news don't get lost in the shuffle). From a little while ago:

Not sure if this has been mentioned here, but it's a good reminder things are still happening in multiple areas for the company: Tesla Semi pilot expands to Martin Brower

Another customer for the Semi pilot project. I like the glowing reviews by the drivers: while I wish they would ramp Semi quicker, it's nice that they are being careful to gain real world feedback before ramping that up. Sounds like the central driver position is a hit, and maneuverability in real world situations is elite.

There's also a dedicated Semi thread elsewhere on the forum.

 

[Zero CO2]

Right, so not "possibly later this year" (2024). Thanks for confirming.

so in addition to being a troll you are calendar challenged 12 months would be Nov 2024

 

[Tachyon]

All the sniping here makes me think the SP finally hit the bottom. Wait , we went up today ? Then why all the sniping ??

 

[geometro]

I don't think that any tweaking of the model Y would completely address the gap in the lineup that European city drivers are looking for. Its just way too big.
The model Y is 83.8" wide. The MG4 is 72.3". Thats a big difference.
I think a smaller model Y would definitely sell well, but ideally Tesla bit the bullet and release a proper compact car, with a compact car price.

Would love to see a Tesla Golf/GTI for all markets.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

All the sniping here makes me think the SP finally hit the bottom. Wait , we went up today ? Then why all the sniping ??

Simple: Trolls gonna Troll.

 

[jerry33]

It's true. It's actually cheaper to finance now than it was during Covid with the low interest rates due to the lower pricing.

While true, people still have interest rate sticker shock. Even if the actual payment is lower, that doesn't sink in.

 

[traxila]

so in addition to being a troll you are calendar challenged 12 months would be Nov 2024

You know he is a troll but you engage.

The number one rule is not to feed the trolls!

That makes you a troll feeder. Who is worse the troll or the troll feeder who validates the troll’s existence?

Please don’t feed the trolls. Why are so many people here feeding the trolls?

 

[jerry33]

You know he is a troll but you engage.

The number one rule is not to feed the trolls!

That makes you a troll feeder. Who is worse the troll or the troll feeder who validates the troll’s existence?

Please don’t feed the trolls. Why are so many people here feeding the trolls?

They look hungry and have big eyes and a sad face.