Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

[AdVanced]

Thanks @Troy !!! You've been providing awesome service to the community : ) I'm very excited to join the ranks and would be happy to help if you need assistance.

 

[dennis]

They won't after Q2 2020 because 500K/year 3/Y prod capacity at Fremont is not even enough to cover US/EU demand for Model 3 LR AWD/P + Model Y LR AWD/P. They delivered 92,620*0,695= 64,371 AWD/P Model 3s in Q4 2019. Therefore they need 64,371*4= 257,484 AWD/P Model 3s per year.

You are not accounting for the fact that some portion of those 64,371 AWD/P Model 3's went to China and the rest of Asia. That production will be offloaded to Giga Shanghai, as will the production of all Model Y's for that region.

For 2020 the 500K 3+Y capacity in Fremont is nominally 350K Model 3's and 150K Model Y's. It is possible that Tesla will shift more of that capacity to Model Y in 2H20. In any case that is sufficient production to meet 3+Y demand in US/EU, with the Asia demand fulfilled by Giga Shanghai.

 

[Falcons023]

Thanks @Troy . I have been a longtime lurker and reading forums for Model s and M3. Finally joined the club last night. I have pre-ordered MY last night and added myself to the tracker too.

Hoping to get delivered by end of the year... I know too optimistic. Let's see.

 

[Aarons12]

So 3 out of the 4 Model Y's in Colorado will be blue. And here I thought I was going to have a unique color.

i've been thinking the same thing about tesla's in general as a few of them have started showing up in our town every day. oh well..

 

[Aarons12]

It took Tesla 2.5 years to ramp to 95k M3s. While it should be shorter, I don't think Freemont will be making more than 50k MY per Q by the end of this year.
So I look ahead to 2021. If the China LR RWD is legit, then that likely eases the burden on Freemont as well and gives them a little more room, call it 40k a year that Fremont no longer makes for China (by the end of 2020). That means you have demand for 320,000 M3 (220 AWD, 100 SR+) based on rough extrapolation from Q4 2019. I think that feels a little light as demand should grow organically from here on out, so lets say 350k.
That leaves 150k for MY in 2020. By that point there is probably demand for 300k+, so they will still be short.

I think the more likely scenario is that they bump prices up a bit across the board to trim demand until they can get Giga Berlin up to speed to handle the EU M3 demand.

i used a slightly different approach (and much more 'seat of the pants' based on various stats that seemed reasonable plus Tesla's own figures) to estimate production and came up around the same as you. my figure was 15-20k per month, with 20k being optimistic.

and based on the same sort of seat of the pants feelings (i'm not shooting totally from my hip, i'm in finance over 40 years) i think the preorders were about 75-80k, or about 5-6 months backlog, with at least one full month already in production.

even if we had the number of pre-orders, though, there is still the matter of colors that will have something to do with the first LR AWD even after they get through the performance models. i ordered about a month ago, and i think september is reasonable for me to hope for. maybe even a bit earlier.

 

[benh57]

In regards to MY LR RWD, As of today, Feb 15, 2020, my pre-order page on tesla.com says, and i quote, "Long Range Rear Wheel Drive". I think that is pretty clear.

- The 10k says what they currently offer, so it is accurate.
- The FAQ says it's not "scheduled" for production. Could still be made in 2021 or even 2020, who knows, it is just not scheduled.

Some of us will wait. Some will cancel, and some will change to AWD when we hear the option. It may be interesting to track each of those categories.

 

[morinma]

Just added my information

 

[djbrown21]

Just added my info!

 

[dc_h]

I can't believe there is not a whisper of a delivery yet. Any thoughts on current production? 100 a week, 200, 500, 1000? They are not going to want 5000 cars out there before asking people to come pick them up, but they might want 1 to a few per sales and delivery center for a big rollout on March 1st or so.
Thoughts? They did say starting deliveries in Q1, so how long can they hold off?

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I can't believe there is not a whisper of a delivery yet. Any thoughts on current production? 100 a week, 200, 500, 1000? They are not going to want 5000 cars out there before asking people to come pick them up, but they might want 1 to a few per sales and delivery center for a big rollout on March 1st or so.
Thoughts? They did say starting deliveries in Q1, so how long can they hold off?

43 days

 

[Troy]

Somebody tweeted the following. Is this new?

Critter on Twitter

 

[AdVanced]

Somebody tweeted the following. Is this new?

Critter on Twitter

I believe this change happened when they made all of the changes at the time of earnings call. I will call at one point you remove rear wheel drive from the spreadsheet. But I do think it was good at it back because there's lots of people that may still keep their order until being contacted by Tesla. That's the current status when people have reached out to Tesla is to wait until they are contacted or change their order to AWD/Performance.

 

[pdqgolf]

Can't wait for someone to post "got a call to day to schedule my MY pickup" that is legit. Then the real number crunching will start

 

[Aarons12]

Can't wait for someone to post "got a call to day to schedule my MY pickup" that is legit. Then the real number crunching will start

if tesla is on schedule, that should be in about 2-3 weeks for deliveries of performance models starting in about a month (late march per them)

 

[dc_h]

if tesla is on schedule, that should be in about 2-3 weeks for deliveries of performance models starting in about a month (late march per them)

And nothing in showrooms. Every car will go straight to deliveries. The only way to see it is to be an early buyer or hang out and watch deliveries.

 

[Aarons12]

And nothing in showrooms. Every car will go straight to deliveries. The only way to see it is to be an early buyer or hang out and watch deliveries.

one of the most amazing things about tesla growth is that they do no advertising!

 

[GDNTX]

Can't wait for someone to post "got a call to day to schedule my MY pickup" that is legit. Then the real number crunching will start

Screenshots abound from last night. Emails in the hands of those waiting for a Y. Pick the days between March 15 and March 31 that you can't pick up your Y. Came from both coasts.

 

[bchan911]

@Troy looks like you need to update the spreadsheet again =D.

• Confirmation Date
• Delivery Date

would be awesome!

 

[Troy]

@Troy looks like you need to update the spreadsheet again =D.

• Confirmation Date
• Delivery Date

would be awesome!

Done.

 

[MY Ordered]

Done.

They asked, Troy answered.

Where is all the data from the anxious email recipients?

Seeing nothing yet.