The biggest problem around FSD for Tesla is that Elon Musk has made promises he cannot keep. But that is not really a problem if the only people who believed him were a few fans who were not paying attention to his record of promises not kept on time. I'm a big fan of Tesla and I admire Elon Musk, but I never believe the time lines in his promises. So I pay for what I can get now, not for the vaporware promised next month. I'll buy FSD when it exists.
The problem with FSD was the approach.
Elon/Tesla lost of a lot of credibility for selling a product like FSD with the promises made. I can't even think of another company who did anything close to that. It was almost to the point of being ludicrous to sell it so far before the necessary regulatory framework (at a federal level), and when it was technically feasible from a HW/SW perspective.
A lot of damage has already been done as an automotive companies best customer is an existing owner, and their loyalty. Once they mess that up they jeopardize that for good. We're coming up to 3 years with nothing to show for FSD.
I tend to completely leave out FSD anytime I talk about Tesla to someone who might buy one. I don't think it's all that important when talking about Tesla versus it's competitors. Most of its competitors will only have AP related features, and Tesla already includes these for the purchase price.
I only talk about it when the person is really into technology, and would enjoy an incremental increase in autonomous capabilities even if it doesn't achieve FSD.
That's why I bought FSD despite all my misgivings about it. I don't believe most people who bought it truly understood the technical challenges and regulatory concerns. I think regulatory stuff is going to be a lot tougher than most people imagine.
Like you say the goal for FSD is safer than an average human driver, but that's not a good comparison. The problem is the average driver statistically is a lot worse than the average good driver. The bad drivers account for way more than their fair share of accidents.
A good driver being one that doesn't drive while distracted, intoxicated, etc.
A good driver being one that has a lot of experience, and knows how to deal with a lot of situations.
if a Self-driving car is 2X better than a good driver on average than I can see that being plausible. People are still going to resist due to the irrational fear AI getting someone killed. So that 2X number might have to be higher.
As to competitors keep in mind that Porsche isn't just Porsche, but VW/Porsche/Audi.
They're also not just VW/Porsche/Audi as they are also things like Ford (with their partnership with VW), Rivian, etc along with other European companies (BMW if they ever get it into gear).
The reason is the Electrify America charging network is growing, and it's slowly becoming a viable alternative to Tesla. The other reason is the charging speeds is getting better, and the Audi E-Tron is fast enough at charging that it can be an alternative to the Model 3/S/X (despite it's poor range).
This is why I view the Audi E-Tron, Porsche Taycan, and some others as viable competitors to Tesla. They might not be very comparable efficiency wise right out of the gate.
I don't see the Nissan Leaf as being very serious as they still don't have good battery thermal management, and they don't have a CCS adaptor yet (as far as I know) so they can't take full advantage of the Electrify America network.