Hopefully before April 20th ..... have some options that expire then ... hope to get the big upswing from report before I sell them off
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Hopefully before April 20th ..... have some options that expire then ... hope to get the big upswing from report before I sell them off
Actually that would be mid-May. Early May is probably a good guess, though. Last quarter was quite late.
The last four earnings reports were released on:
2012 MAY 09
2012 JUL 25
2012 NOV 05
2013 FEB 20
On average that is nearly 38 days since the end of each quarter. So the next earnings report likely won’t be released until sometime in May.
wanted to add a quick thought on gross margin for the quarter (excluding enviro credits). read this excerpt from the last conference call:
copied from:
Tesla Motors, Inc. TSLA Q4 2012 Earnings Call Transcript
elon: For this quarter and for probably most of next quarter, you have to decide what the relative focus is and I think the important thing for us to focus on right now is production efficiency and improving gross margin rather than scaling up production... It's really important that we improve the manufacturing efficiency and kind of reduce the number of temps essentially. We still expect to see an increase in full time employees from beginning of quarter to end of quarter, but it is really important that we make some significant progress in reducing the size of the temporary labor force and addressing the manufacturing inefficiencies. In any company, you've got to focus on what's important at any one time and production efficiencies, thanks to – if we wanted to, we could raise production right now to 500 units a week, but that's probably what we could do right now, but we would do so at the expense of efficiency and would have a lot of overtime and that kind of thing. So, right now, it's really just production efficiency...
elon mentions production efficiency about 6 times in this one paragraph. it's repeated several other times during the call too. he states several times they won't scale up production until they have efficiency first. we have very strong data points indicating production is at 500 per week, thanks to the various links people have posted here and the delivery information from other threads.
i think the logical conclusion is that they must have made pretty significant progress on improving gross margin. in my model to start the thread i estimated 5% gross margin on an 85k car, and 15k in enviro credits per car. the 15k in enviro credits is possibly too high, but on the other hand the information above has me thinking the 5% gross margin estimate is probably too low. with as important as increasing margin was to them, it probably is the case that they have made substantial progress on this front. i guess i'm saying on further reflection that maybe my gross margin estimate leaves some further room for upside.
i wonder when the shorts will figure out all these pieces.
make 500 cars per week. then 6000 cars produced in the quarter. add 15k in enviro credits per vehicle. fold in gross margins skyrocketing. mix in 5 million shares newly shorted in the last month.
it's a recipe for a strawberry short-cake.
copied from:
Tesla Motors, Inc. TSLA Q4 2012 Earnings Call Transcript
elon: For this quarter and for probably most of next quarter, you have to decide what the relative focus is and I think the important thing for us to focus on right now is production efficiency and improving gross margin rather than scaling up production... It's really important that we improve the manufacturing efficiency and kind of reduce the number of temps essentially. We still expect to see an increase in full time employees from beginning of quarter to end of quarter, but it is really important that we make some significant progress in reducing the size of the temporary labor force and addressing the manufacturing inefficiencies. In any company, you've got to focus on what's important at any one time and production efficiencies, thanks to – if we wanted to, we could raise production right now to 500 units a week, but that's probably what we could do right now, but we would do so at the expense of efficiency and would have a lot of overtime and that kind of thing. So, right now, it's really just production efficiency...
elon mentions production efficiency about 6 times in this one paragraph. it's repeated several other times during the call too. he states several times they won't scale up production until they have efficiency first. we have very strong data points indicating production is at 500 per week, thanks to the various links people have posted here and the delivery information from other threads.
i think the logical conclusion is that they must have made pretty significant progress on improving gross margin. in my model to start the thread i estimated 5% gross margin on an 85k car, and 15k in enviro credits per car. the 15k in enviro credits is possibly too high, but on the other hand the information above has me thinking the 5% gross margin estimate is probably too low. with as important as increasing margin was to them, it probably is the case that they have made substantial progress on this front. i guess i'm saying on further reflection that maybe my gross margin estimate leaves some further room for upside.
i wonder when the shorts will figure out all these pieces.
make 500 cars per week. then 6000 cars produced in the quarter. add 15k in enviro credits per vehicle. fold in gross margins skyrocketing. mix in 5 million shares newly shorted in the last month.
it's a recipe for a strawberry short-cake.
Don't get your expectations out of alignment with reality.
500 cars/week now doesn't mean 500/week at the beginning of the quarter.
They also had the first week off, so that would be 0.
While I would love to hear a surprise 6000 number, I am expecting 4500. If we get more, awesome!
I agree with Zythryn, historically TSLA has had a tough time hitting their goals (recall Q4 sales, production of Model X etc.) so we shouldn't be so excited about the sales figures.
smorgasbord
Active Member
I think the credit-math needs to be redone.
A Model S is a Type III and so gets 4 ZEV credits (http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/cleandoc/clean_2009_my_hev_tps_12-09.pdf). Prices per credit had been around $5000, but with more and more qualifying cars coming onto the market, the law of supply and demand indicates that price per credit should decrease. So, while right now Tesla might be making as much as an additional $20K per car, that's not something they can count on moving forward.
Here's what Tesla's recent 10K says about them:
So, they're not able to sell all the ZEV credits they get, but are able to sell of the GHG credits. I don't know the value of the GHG credits.
A Model S is a Type III and so gets 4 ZEV credits (http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/cleandoc/clean_2009_my_hev_tps_12-09.pdf). Prices per credit had been around $5000, but with more and more qualifying cars coming onto the market, the law of supply and demand indicates that price per credit should decrease. So, while right now Tesla might be making as much as an additional $20K per car, that's not something they can count on moving forward.
Here's what Tesla's recent 10K says about them:
So, they're not able to sell all the ZEV credits they get, but are able to sell of the GHG credits. I don't know the value of the GHG credits.
curt, as zythryn mentioned, it is not 500 cars/week for the entire quarter. my production estimate of 6000 vehicles is coming from the fact that only vin numbers up to around 3000 had been produced as of the end of q4, and now we are seeing vin numbers of 8800+. vin 88xx said delivery could be scheduled march 28th, and with production running 100 per day one could assume in the neighborhood of 6000 cars will be produced this quarter.
from a revenue standpoint there is a lag from production to delivery, i estimate around 10-14 days. meaning you should expect that of the cars produced in the quarter 1000-1400 to will not be delivered in time to book revenue. the unit estimate of 5200 i got by taking the 500 or so model s that were produced but not delivered as of the end of q4, then adding 4600-5000 that should be produced and delivered this quarter (based on my production estimate of 6000 above, subtract 1000-1400 that will be in process of delivery).
i understand people not wanting to get expectations up and be disappointed. however in prior quarters we could tell that they weren't meeting consensus production timelines by looking at vin numbers and deliveries, i think this quarter we see the opposite. i'm trying not to be optimistic, but rather assessing the available data as realistically as possible. as an investor, knowledge that there may be a revenue or earnings beat vs consensus expectation is very valuable information. that's why i feel accuracy is paramount. from the long-term standpoint of the company, i realize a few hundred units this way or that isn't going to matter much.
an aside, on this forum it seems like sometimes when i post the post doesn't show up right away? i assume because it's a moderated forum. is there any way to see my posts that are awaiting approval so i don't post twice? i guess you could pm me with the answer?
The tesla motors twitter account just tweeted that production was 400 cars/week.
Tesla Motors (TeslaMotors) on Twitter
Looks like we are being too optimistic.
Tesla Motors (TeslaMotors) on Twitter
Looks like we are being too optimistic.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
Tesla just posted this to their Facebook page (and probably twitter):
#WattsUp: We've ramped up! The Tesla factory is now producing 400 Model S a week!
Based on that, they won't have come close to 6000 in this quarter. If they had been doing 400 per week since Jan 1, there are almost 13 weeks in Q1, that would be 5200. But with the missed first week (4800) and likely haven't been doing 400/week all along if they are saying they've ramped up.. then we could be looking at closer to 4,000 for Q1. Of course the twitter/facebook account may not be accurate, so who knows.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
Wonder if that has anything to do with the stock going from nicely positive to negative now...
You totally stole my thunder....
Something definitely doesn't add up. In this video: Elon Musk in conversation at Tesla Motors | 18 March 2013 - YouTube
Elon CLEARLY says Tesla is delivering 500 cars per week. Tesla motors website says they are building400 cars per week. Maybe cancelation rate is higher than we all think? Why would they build at a slower place than delivery rate?
Elon CLEARLY says Tesla is delivering 500 cars per week. Tesla motors website says they are building400 cars per week. Maybe cancelation rate is higher than we all think? Why would they build at a slower place than delivery rate?
Yuri_G
Member
I think it's a social media snafu. Tesla said they were producing 400 cars per week at the end of Q4 per the most recent earnings report. Tesla probably meant to reiterate what Elon said recently with 500 cars being delivered and/or produced per week.
Zzzz...
Member
You are most likely correct. Tesla really needs to get a handle on its corporate communication teams. It seems like the wild west and chaos over there. Thats a pretty big typo to make.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I've seen from two different sources (one being Elon himself in the video above) that production and/or delivery is at 500/week. I would not give as much weight to that little blurb on Twitter. It's clearly out-of-date information.
If it is indeed a typo, then an hour has gone by without a correction.
Does anyone know who on twitter is "WattsUp"?
Tesla executives must have noticed the tumbling share price that followed the tweet. If it was in error, they may be in consultation regarding a correction. They may fear that someone could be accused of manipulating the share price for day trading profits.
Does anyone know who on twitter is "WattsUp"?
Tesla executives must have noticed the tumbling share price that followed the tweet. If it was in error, they may be in consultation regarding a correction. They may fear that someone could be accused of manipulating the share price for day trading profits.
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