Thoughts on buying a new Model S today

[ALT-F]

I've had my eyes on buying a Model S for a couple of years. The bug has now bitten and I'm ready to commit. I've looked at 2017+ Model S 100D but they have not depreciated much (low mileage, within full warranty). A new 2021 Model S Long Range Plus is $70k on Tesla's website.

I've read a Model S refresh is right around the corner. Does it make sense to buy a new current generation Model S today?

 

[BioSci]

Most likely any Model S ordered today will be filled with the refreshed version. It's nearly impossible to find any inventory of new MS cars at any Tesla dealer.

 

[Ofarlig]

Next generation for sure, given your economic situation supports it and you are willing to spend the money.

 

[NickFie]

If I were in your situation, I would configure and order TODAY. Then decline any inventory car offered.

That should reserve a 2021 Refresh (not yet available) at 2020 price.

When technology is rapidly evolving, purchase decisions are different. SmartPhones in their first decade, flat-screen TVs, PCs back in the day, color TV and calculators if you’re old enough...

1. The following year will bring a better version, possibly at a better price.
   
2. As long as you postpone purchase, you get exactly ZERO value from the new technology.

So take a deep breath, jump into the pool and enjoy the experience. I‘ve enjoyed 49k miles of safe, swift and smooth travel since picking up our S100D in November 2017. Still love it every time I get in. MCU and AutoPilot computer upgrades give me full capability.

 

[CapeOne]

I've had my eyes on buying a Model S for a couple of years. The bug has now bitten and I'm ready to commit. I've looked at 2017+ Model S 100D but they have not depreciated much (low mileage, within full warranty). A new 2021 Model S Long Range Plus is $70k on Tesla's website.

I've read a Model S refresh is right around the corner. Does it make sense to buy a new current generation Model S today?

I would argue that they have depreciated quite a bit. A 2017 MS 100D with no extra cost options would've stickered for around $95,200 or $87,700 after deducting $7,500 federal tax credit. A car like that today with 48k miles (12k/year) would be worth maybe half that number wholesale. What has happened is that new MS prices have come down so much over the years that it LOOKS like the MS hasn't depreciated much, but it has.

I would not suggest buying a "current" 2021 unless you can get a decent discount on an inventory car and/or you plan to keep it for so long that resale value becomes less of a factor. As battery technology continues to improve, more and more competition enters the EV market, etc. I think there is going to continue to be a lot of price volatility for a while.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Believe OP has a good idea. Place his order now, at the current low price. Deliveries will be some time from now. If he likes the new refresh he can go through with his order. He might even time it right if the refresh has a higher price he may get his for his ordered price, but still get the refreshed mode.
If the refresh is priced lower, then most likely he will get that lowered pricing as well...

 

[ucmndd]

That should reserve a 2021 Refresh (not yet available) at 2020 price.

This is far from certain. If the price increase for the refresh is significant, there’s little reason to think that Tesla is just going to eat thousands of dollars per car vs. refund your $100 order fee.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Has happened to many of us. I placed an order for my X and the pricing increased prior to delivery. Some configuration upgrades happened as well. Tesla delivered my car at the ordered price, and I got the upgrades included as well. Saved me a bunch.

When I ordered my 70 X it was also upgraded to a 75 X, the trailer package was included, Falcon Wing doors worked faster, etc. Pricing was the same as quoted when ordered.

 

[ucmndd]

Has happened to many of us. I placed an order for my X and the pricing increased prior to delivery. Some configuration upgrades happened as well. Tesla delivered my car at the ordered price, and I got the upgrades included as well. Saved me a bunch.

When I ordered my 70 X it was also upgraded to a 75 X, the trailer package was included, Falcon Wing doors worked faster, etc. Pricing was the same as quoted when ordered.

It’s also happened in the reverse.

AP2 cars had the choice of either paying up or delivering with gimped software that mimicked AP1.

Tesla is a much different company now, the ordering process is different, etc. If the current European pricing holds for the US and there’s a $3-5k price increase, I don’t see the company feeling particularly obligated to honor speculative $100 bets.

 

[ALT-F]

If I were in your situation, I would configure and order TODAY. Then decline any inventory car offered.

That should reserve a 2021 Refresh (not yet available) at 2020 price.

This would be a great scenario if it plays out that way!

I'm wondering if the last of the current gen will be more reliable than the first of the next gen...

 

[emailforbrett]

I ordered my Model S Performance on January 15. Originally it had a March 5-20 delivery window. It has now been pushed to March 5-31.

Just a FYI in case you were looking at the timing.

 

[2101Guy]

one should never post a "should I buy" thread without including the main factor: What is the amount you are willing/wanting to spend, max?

 

[pabla]

I picked up my 2021 LR+ mid dec and not going to lie its hurts a bit that a refreshed model is right around the corner. However along with that refresh there will also be price increases, considering how much I paid for my LR+ its an absolute steal of a deal and its a really solid car. The biggest thing that I will miss is the refreshed looks, but with the money I saved I can put it back into the car and it make it one of a kind too! Basically if the budget allows for it, obviously go for the refreshed model if not find a LR+ take that and you wont regret it.

 

[David_Cary]

I would argue that they have depreciated quite a bit. A 2017 MS 100D with no extra cost options would've stickered for around $95,200 or $87,700 after deducting $7,500 federal tax credit. A car like that today with 48k miles (12k/year) would be worth maybe half that number wholesale. What has happened is that new MS prices have come down so much over the years that it LOOKS like the MS hasn't depreciated much, but it has.

I would not suggest buying a "current" 2021 unless you can get a decent discount on an inventory car and/or you plan to keep it for so long that resale value becomes less of a factor. As battery technology continues to improve, more and more competition enters the EV market, etc. I think there is going to continue to be a lot of price volatility for a while.

Yeah - past performance does not equal future performance.
Imagine if the Model S dropped another $25k and got even better. That isn't going to happen.
There are limits and we may not be at the limit yet, but it is around the corner.
Most people (for good reason) are expecting a price increase - probably the largest one to ever hit the Model S. So there is that.
Remember - Elon seemed to make up the current price on the fly. Sexual and drug reference and all. Probably because he knew it was very temporary.
If I could get a discount on a current inventory car, I would probably take it. I don't necessarily want the refresh and I am sure that I won't be the only one. But I do realize that a refresh always hits resale values.
Just checked - Zero Model S inventory new in 200 miles.

 

[Chaserr]

Maybe wait until tomorrow?

 

[CapeOne]

Yeah - past performance does not equal future performance.

Not always but advancing technologies, improving production efficiencies, new competition, and perhaps an all-new MS (not just a refresh) within a few years could impact the resale of "current" generation models equal to or worse than what has occurred over the past years. The current 2021 MS LR+ is already a "better" product (quicker, more range, etc.) than the 2017 MS 100D yet is priced significantly less. Plus, if Lucid and/or others get into a pricing war with Tesla/Elon who knows where things may go.

Even if new MS prices more or less stabilize, resale values of aging models could continue to see notable declines as Tesla products and the EV market evolves and expands. I think we can still expect to see a fair amount of price volatility in the coming years.

 

[46&2]

resale values of aging models could continue to see notable declines

No. Not 'could'. 'Will'.

Every Model S owner should have known he was buying into a new market segment of real world usable, larger electric sedans. The (big, sometimes more, sometimes a little less) premium you paid for that was the entrance fee for the ownership of such a car. It was high, and higher (bigger) when Tesla needed more cash and was able to squeeze out more.

It STILL was worth to join the party early, as we got the pleasure of already years of miles driven electrically.

But I have zero understanding for the people complaining about a Model S losing resale value. This is not an investment. It's the price for a good used daily (if you want), and for a tool.

Who did not take into consideration that future models would be better yet cheaper made a mistake.

(I am entitled to be that harsh because I am in that boat, to some extent. I paid cash. Even when Tesla offered bad rates and low residual leasing, that would have been the better - no, about equal - deal. In a hindsight, buying TSLA stock... blame me)

 

[ALT-F]

Some additional thoughts. At $70k new, I feel the current Model S Long Range Plus is a very good value when comparing what used 100D's are going for. I also feel that it's a great value compared to the Performance option. I'm guessing the next gen Model S will cost more than $70k.

So here's to wishing the order I just placed locks me into a discounted price on the next gen!

 

[Sbaimo]

Some additional thoughts. At $70k new, I feel the current Model S Long Range Plus is a very good value when comparing what used 100D's are going for. I also feel that it's a great value compared to the Performance option. I'm guessing the next gen Model S will cost more than $70k.

So here's to wishing the order I just placed locks me into a discounted price on the next gen!

I ordered my 2021 model S in December from showroom here in Los Angeles. I asked salesman what would happen if the price went up. He replied saying “if the price goes up, I would be able to accept mes price and pay the difference or they would try to find existing inventory or refund deposit. “ fwiw

 

[1windy]

I bought the day the price dropped the second time. I got a GREAT DEAL compared to the buyer right before me who didn't.
Buy
Enjoy
Forget