thoughts on getting long range instead of SR for the tax credit?

[RVD98072]

i am probably going to get the short range M3. i reserved my M3 on 3/31/2016 but at the end of the day so my place in line isn't that great. but i own a MX so i think that puts me ahead in the line a bit.

i don't really need long range on the M3 since i already have a MX 100D. all of our road trips and such will be in the MX.

so i was going to just go with a cheap M3 pretty close to the $35k base price (will add autopilot if that's not included but probably will not add premium upgrade, etc.).

but i was thinking that if the tax credit is no longer fully available by the time i get my M3, maybe it's better to just go with a long range model?

one possibility is that the long range gets the full $7500 tax credit because it's early and by the time my turn comes up for the short range, there is 0 available so that $9k option really only cost me $1500 which seems like a good long term investment for resale, etc.

any thoughts?

 

[IdaX]

Partly it depends on if the whole tax credit goes poof with the pending tax bills ...

 

[Zaxxon]

It's very unlikely that waiting for SR would cost a 3/31/16 reservation the full credit. When the 200,000th US sale is hit, the full credit remains for the rest of that calendar quarter and all of the following. Then 50% credit for 6 months, and finally 25% credit for six months.

So assuming your LR purchase would get the full credit and that 200k vehicle sales are hit in the worst-case scenario (last day of a quarter), that would imply that your SR delay compared to LR would need to be at least 3 months + 6 months + 6 months + 1 day, or 15 months.

It ain't gonna be 15 months.

More likely, electing for SR would cost you 50% of the credit, or $3,750, making the $9k option effectively $5,250.

In that scenario, which FWIW is what I'm using I'm my own contemplation as a 3/31/16 late morning res holder, I think LR is worth it so long as the cost isn't prohibitive for you. The benefits, after all, aren't limited to the additional day-1 90 miles of range:

-Faster onboard charger
-Faster low-SOC supercharging rate
-5.1s 0-60 vs 5.6s
-Less worry about degradation impact on range if you plan to keep the vehicle for the long term (eg an initial 220-mile range may be 190 after several years, vs 310 degrading to 270 after a similar time frame.)
-Some portion of the initial cost will come back on resale

For those reasons, I'm leaning toward LR. Hope that helps!

 

[McHoffa]

If you get the configurator email very soon (which is likely since you’re an owner) and you can get your car before the end of the year, I’d definitely get long range. If the tax credit is killed by congress then that long range upgrade effectively only cost you $1500. Even if it doesn’t then there is a chance you wouldn’t get standard until the tax credit is cut in half.

 

[ElecFan]

I'd wait when the configurator mail arrives and postpone until it becomes clear when the SR is going to come out. I think it'll be before the end of Q2 so you'll probably be alright. If not, you can always configure the LR when it gets critical.
On the other hand, with the tax credit you'll still pay 1500$ more than for the SR so you might want to wait. Or if LR is worth the extra 1.5k, go for it.

 

[RVD98072]

for me...

i think the LR is definitely worth an extra $1.5k.

i'm not sure if the LR is worth $5250. probably not.

the LR is not worth $9k.

but yeah, i guess i can get the configurator email and sit on it waiting for the SR and then decide later on as time progresses...

 

[McHoffa]

for me...

i think the LR is definitely worth an extra $1.5k.

i'm not sure if the LR is worth $5250. probably not.

the LR is not worth $9k.

but yeah, i guess i can get the configurator email and sit on it waiting for the SR and then decide later on as time progresses...

long term the standard will lose a lot more value, as the roadster shows that they have some longer range plans for their cars down the line. In 5 years, 300 miles will be probably standard (on more than just Tesla) and a 200 mile car will be worth a lot less. Maybe not $9000 less, but enough for me between that and the fact that my twice a year road trips would take about 1-3 hours longer in the standard than in the LR.

 

[03DSG]

I agree that a couple of years down the road battery size will be forefront for resale EV’s. As well 3 years down the road battery pricing should be lower. I’ll go LR on the 3 to cover the bases.

 

[IdaX]

But the superchargers are getting closer together all the time. I think that the short range will be totally fine and better in 5 years than today. And that while long range helps today, you won't even need it by then so it won't hurt range all that much.

 

[ElecFan]

But the superchargers are getting closer together all the time. I think that the short range will be totally fine and better in 5 years than today. And that while long range helps today, you won't even need it by then so it won't hurt range all that much.

Not only are they getting closer, the speed of charging will increase dramatically. 350 kW is already being planned in Europe the next couple of years. Imagine how this will be in five years.

 

[ccutrer]

Not only are they getting closer, the speed of charging will increase dramatically. 350 kW is already being planned in Europe the next couple of years. Imagine how this will be in five years.

A 350kW charger installed in 2019 won't help anymore than a 135kW charger when your car you buy in 2018 can only take 120kW or less.

 

[stevej119]

I think it'll be before the end of Q2 so you'll probably be alright. If not, you can always configure the LR when it gets critical.

"Before the end of Q2" is worthless if the tax credit is eliminated.

 

[bswn1]

Due to the unclear nature of the federal tax credit, we switched our plan from getting the short range to the long range with premium and ordered today to hopefully take delivery by end of the year.

Cost was $54k as configured which is $44k after rebates. This is compared to $45k as configured and $42.5k without federal rebate for the short range.

The answer was clear, but didn't think I'd be ordering a Model 3 today when I woke up.

 

[chilman408]

Is it clear that the tax credit removal applies to current tax year? I'm not sure that this can happen.

 

[bswn1]

Is it clear that the tax credit removal applies to current tax year? I'm not sure that this can happen.

No, it would be repealed Dec 31, 2017 if the Senate doesn't get their version of the bill passed.

 

[run-the-joules]

You should definitely wait and see. At least until I get to order.

 

[YDAORCT]

This is my thinking exactly. Thanks for sharing your logic, I’m in a similar boat and it was helpful to read this for my own looming decision.

Due to the unclear nature of the federal tax credit, we switched our plan from getting the short range to the long range with premium and ordered today to hopefully take delivery by end of the year.

Cost was $54k as configured which is $44k after rebates. This is compared to $45k as configured and $42.5k without federal rebate for the short range.

The answer was clear, but didn't think I'd be ordering a Model 3 today when I woke up.

 

[Need]

I wonder if the 4-weeks estimate is really accurate for the M3. We ordered an in-production MX 2 weeks ago so we could beat the fed tax credit repeal if it happens. It was said the time the car will be ready in 2 weeks by end of Nov or first week of Dec. Now they said it will at the middle of Dec... getting nervous.

 

[RVD98072]

I'm still in a bit of a holding pattern. I have not been invited to configure yet. The estimate online says Dec 2017 - Feb 2018. As stated before, I am an owner who signed up on launch day but I signed up online at the end of the day (did not wait in line).

The latest data seems to indicate that Tesla will probably sell their 200,000th vehicle early next year. Ideally they would sell it a day into Q2 so the full tax credit would be available until the end of Q3 2018. That means that if the SR is out by then and I am able to order mine, I would ideally order my SR car in early Q3 for delivery at the end of Q3 and I would get my $35k + options vehicle with the full tax credit. This is the ideal scenario.

But if it looks like the SR won't be available for me at that time, I may just put in the order for the LR in early Q3 instead.

Now this assumes both the tax credit will still exist + the tax credit will be available in Q2 and Q3.

If Tesla were to sell it's 200,000th vehicle in Q1, then I'd have to make a decision in early Q2 and pretty much certainly I'd have to go with the LR.

As for actual price, it will likely be $54k for the LR (LR + PUP + EAP) or $40k for the SR (+ EAP). With the full tax credit, we are looking at $46.5k or $32.5k...not bad deals.

 

[ElecFan]

@RVD98072 Before EOY you'll know whether there is any tax credit you can count on. LR may indeed be delivered before the end of Q2. SR probably not, although you never know if production ramps up.
I'm still not sure whether the 200,000 mark will be reached in Q1. With the rate it's going at present, Q2 seems more realistic to me. But that can change pretty quickly. I sincerely hope so.