TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[voip-ninja]

Take out the tax rebate and gasoline savings, the $50,000 Model 3 is at the same price as the loaded Camry. But the car is MUCH better. Lots of people don't know this fact.

Auto loans don’t take into account the savings one might get from buying electricity instead of gasoline and the savings vary a lot from one part of the country to the next.

Similarly banks don’t underwrite auto loans based on tax incentives as far as I know.

Typical overextended consumer will buy a car that is roughly 1/3 to 1/2 their annual salary.

That still puts $50K car out of reach for many.

I do think that when $35K version arrives in volume next year it will take a lot of sales from the non luxury segment, Accord, Camry, Maxima, Prius.

 

[Jayjs20]

I hope an ER leak is driving that

 

[EngRyan]

Given the high option price volatility do you guys think it is worth while to cover some Jan 2019 calls now and re-buy them tomorrow. If we are overall flat, down or slightly up I would imagine I'd be able to buy them at a cheaper price. What do yo think?

 

[N5329K]

Three years ago, I was a Camry driver who upgraded to a Model S. Had the Model 3 LR been available at the time, I would have upgraded a year earlier. In my view, Camry owners do not drive a $25k car because they can't afford more; they just don't see any other car worth paying more for. Then Tesla comes around. Camry drivers are value seekers, not swayed merely by sticker price. I also believe that for many the LR is a better value than the SR, well worth the price differential. So from my own personal experience, I think there is huge potential to convert Camry owners to Model 3, both LR and SR version.

It worked that way with Prius owners buying a Model S.
Robin

 

[jelloslug]

Auto loans don’t take into account the savings one might get from buying electricity instead of gasoline and the savings vary a lot from one part of the country to the next.

Similarly banks don’t underwrite auto loans based on tax incentives as far as I know.

Typical overextended consumer will buy a car that is roughly 1/3 to 1/2 their annual salary.

That still puts $50K car out of reach for many.

I do think that when $35K version arrives in volume next year it will take a lot of sales from the non luxury segment, Accord, Camry, Maxima, Prius.

Considering how much people spend on pickups and SUVs, sales of a lightly equipped Model 3 should be brisk.

 

[jelloslug]

It worked that way with Prius owners buying a Model S.
Robin

Yep. My wife's Prius is pushing 10 years old now and her 3 should be along very soon.

 

[ggr]

So you tea readers....what do you make of the SP being basically flat so far today?

Not any more... just zoomed to $302. Someone thinks they know something.

 

[RobStark]

In my view, Camry owners do not drive a $25k car because they can't afford more; they just don't see any other car worth paying more for. Then Tesla comes around. Camry drivers are value seekers, not swayed merely by sticker price.

In my view that is no more than 20% of Camry owners and 15% of Accord owners.

And lets remember at some point there will be significant Model 3 exports. Not all the sales going forward in 2019 will stack up against US sales of Camry and Accord.

 

[voip-ninja]

In my view that is no more than 20% of Camry owners and 15% of Accord owners.

And lets remember at some point there will be significant Model 3 exports. Not all the sales going forward in 2019 will stack up against US sales of Camry and Accord.

I think you are right. While there are surely Camry owners who could buy a Mercedes E class or BMW 7 series if they wanted to that is probably a small fraction of owners.

Most people who buy a Camry purchase one because it’s the best value for dollar car they can afford.

My previous director purchased one. Even though he could have purchased a $60K+ car it would have been a real stretch for him and he ultimately picked the least expensive new car with a warranty that would get the job done.

 

[NicoV]

It worked that way with Prius owners buying a Model S.
Robin

I’m one of those.

 

[JRP3]

If you want, you can dig through the endless Seeking Alpha archives for the original hit piece. I think it was in 2016? Or 2015? Or maybe 2012? The comments to it are *full* of critical responses saying "you overestimated VOC per car"

I think it originated here Docs Reveal: Tesla’s Production Capacity Limited To Less Than Half Of Its 500,000 Vehicle Target

 

[Robocop]

Does the letter get released long before the call?

 

[jhm]

In my view that is no more than 20% of Camry owners and 15% of Accord owners.

And lets remember at some point there will be significant Model 3 exports. Not all the sales going forward in 2019 will stack up against US sales of Camry and Accord.

Sure, but if the Model 3 is able to peel off 10% of Camry, Accord, and many other midsize sedans, that is a huge chunk of demand beyond the premium segment.

 

[Mich]

Does the letter get released long before the call?

Typically about 6-12min after closing. so about 20 min from now.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

So you tea readers....what do you make of the SP being basically flat so far today?

It means everyone is already dug in inside their respective trenches and are now waiting for the bombshells to start falling.

3 minutes to go!

 

[Jayjs20]

ARE YOU HANGING OFF THE EDGE OF YOUR SEAT

 

[EngRyan]

ARE YOU HANGING OFF THE EDGE OF YOUR SEAT

Here we gooooooooo!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

ARE YOU HANGING OFF THE EDGE OF YOUR SEAT

YOUR TICKET BUYS THE ENTIRE SEAT BUT YOU'LL ONLY NEED THE EDGE!

 

[Ulmo]

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712

 

[defc0n]

Good luck to you all, the lot of you holding now are braver than I