TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[colettimj]

Your daily Seeking Alpha Rundown:

Here's How We Short Tesla And Still Sleep Soundly

Summary: Don't worry, we all know that Tesla is going down eventually. Buy calls to deal with the risk and then ignore the volatility. And the cognitive dissonance about the fact that you're also going long on Tesla.

Quote: "Because we agree with Jim Chanos and Mark Spiegel. Tesla could be one of those once-in-a-lifetime shorts. When we typically short, we are looking for a move down between 10 and 20 percent. Not so with Tesla, our largest short position. We expect to wake up one day with Tesla stock down $30, headed to down $150, and who knows from there."

Tesla, Dieselgate, And The Future

Summary: EVs are a government-promoted scam because you can sequester carbon more cheaply by other means, and I don't understand the concept that subsidies exist to kickstart an industry so it can sustain itself. Solar City was a fleecing fraud. Don't switch to clean energy, just go vegan. It'll fix any problems you have with your genitals as well, and yes, I'm actually talking about Viagra in a Seeking Alpha article.

Quote: "The absurd dream of an integrated renewable energy company is quickly coming to an end. From a societal standpoint, it was always more make-believe than real solution anyway"

That second quote almost got me a new laptop due to a spit take.

 

[shlokavica22]

There is still hope boyz Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
$TSLA short situation is such a unicorn, I couldn't hazard a guess at what price would start a short squeeze ... but I do know that when and if it happens you'll see millions of share exiting in a stampede and $TSLA's stock price will resemble a SpaceX rocket launch

 

[ggr]

true, but the flip side of that is if that 500m swing was a rebate, then all of a sudden the Q doesnt look very good (300m in profit with 180m from credits, selling the highest margin cars they have with 2 years of backlog).


Time will tell

Are you just confabulating? Daring.

 

[Fact Checking]

true, but the flip side of that is if that 500m swing was a rebate, then all of a sudden the Q doesnt look very good (300m in profit with 180m from credits, selling the highest margin cars they have with 2 years of backlog).

Well, there's a lot to dissect in that single sentence:

• GAAP profits: Tesla's GAAP results are still burdened by high capex costs, but the "this GAAP profit was a one-off" argument is fatally wounded by the $1.4b cash generated from operations,
• demand: Tesla has only utilized 25% of its sedan market so far: the European sedan market is twice as large and the Chinese one is at least as large as the U.S. one. Tesla has not leased a single Model 3 yet - while in modern economies about 80% of the new car purchases are financed. To suggest that Tesla is anywhere close to running out of demand is denial of reality.
  
• backlog: Can you cite a single major carmaker who can make customers wait for 2 years for a new car with over 10 billion dollars worth of products in the "backlog"? I'll help you: there's none, because customers are not willing to wait for ICE cars - they'll just buy from a competitor. But they are willing to wait for a Tesla Model 3. This is not the sign of a simple "backlog", but the sign of extremely high demand for a unique, one-of-a-kind product that customers cannot buy anywhere else.

 

[EVNow]

Considering how we started today, happy we ended above 340.

Hoping after the election the market and Tesla will start a new bull run.

 

[avoigt]

1. 
   4m4 minutes ago
   $TSLA short interest $11.16 bn, 32.22 mm shares, 25.05$ of float. #Tesla shares shorted declined by -940k over the last week, by -1.4 million shares since Oct 1st, and by -2.5 million shares since The Tweet. Shorts are down $1.88 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market losses
   
   
   
   
   0 replies0 retweets0 likes
   

Ihor Dusaniwsky Retweeted jon

I am seeing a bit of short selling today, but in all honesty, shorts do not substantially move $TSLA's stock price - it is long selling and buying that has the largest effect. Even if shorts sold half a mm shares today, it would have a minor effect versus the 7.7 mm shares traded

Ihor Dusaniwsky added,

Replying to @ihors3

2 replies1 retweet5 likes

 

[Remus]

selling the highest margin cars they have with 2 years of backlog

Apparently this is the bad thing for Tesla, as in nobody wait for 2 freaking years for a car in any other brand.

 

[jhm]

They'll lose money on their overall position, obviously, and they'll lose more money on the time value of the calls which they keep buying, but by buying protective calls, they won't go bankrupt like Spiegel. These idiots were listening to Larry Fossi!

I love seeing them lose their money.

Maybe I should revisit writing covered calls, you know, to help the shorts sleep at night.

 

[jhm]

That second quote almost got me a new laptop due to a spit take.

They had me going vegan.

 

[gringotuanis]

Yeah, this is a totally dishonest piece. Don't click through. It does stuff like listing payables (ooh, scary) without listing receivables, acting as if GHG credits are one-time (they're not going anywhere, and they're state-based so Trump can't stop them), and scaremongering about warranty reserves (despite Tesla's documented conservatism in warranty reservation).... without pointing out that Tesla would still have made a huge profit without GHG credits and with larger warranty reserves.

Charley Grant has written a classic plausible-deniability "don't say anything provably false, but mislead as much as possible" dishonest hit piece, as opposed to the Linette Lopez/"Reveal" style of "just say something provably false" hit piece.

Everyone here I assume knows about trying ties between Charley Grant and Chanos correct? It's widely been noted on Twitter that his dad is a friend of Chanos.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

...Look downstream on the Truckee River, starting at Fernley, or upstream at Sparks. Note the farms on the river. Tesla could buy them with pocket change. Tesla replants native vegetation, and then gains the water rights from the Truckee River. And now Tesla has enough water for a small city. Because, to reiterate, farms use vastly more water than people. And simultaneously, fertilizer discharges into Pyramid Lake (a concern of the EPA) drop.

Testify!
I don't want to go all-out Nathaniel in this forum, but give me some time to explain to Kimbal how aquaponics uses juuuust about one-tenth the water of trad farming and pollutes infinitely less than Hydroponics... we'll (I and my Aussie buddies) wrap this sucker up all neat and tidy. "The Martian" could have just stayed on Mars and waited out the next expedition...

 

[Carl Raymond]

Considering how we started today, happy we ended above 340.

Hoping after the election the market and Tesla will start a new bull run.

Isn't the worst case that nothing changes? As a foreigner I'm not understanding why markets would be suppressed when on "nothing to a win".

 

[Boomer19]

1. Everyone here I assume knows about trying ties between Charley Grant and Chanos correct? It's widely been noted on Twitter that his dad is a friend of Chanos.

   
   wow, no wonder his coverage is so slimy

 

[Cherry Wine]

There is still hope boyz Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
$TSLA short situation is such a unicorn, I couldn't hazard a guess at what price would start a short squeeze ... but I do know that when and if it happens you'll see millions of share exiting in a stampede and $TSLA's stock price will resemble a SpaceX rocket launch

If this could please just happen, I would be so happy.

 

[SpaceCash]

If this could please just happen, I would be so happy.

IT WILL IT CAN'T NOT

 

[lklundin]

Didn't click on SA link, so I'll just guess...

I stopped clicking them a long time ago. Still, when I google Tesla or TSLA for news about half the links suggested on the first page are from SA.

Is someone playing games with PageRank - Wikipedia ?

 

[mongo]

IT WILL IT CAN'T NOT

@Cherry Wine

 

[dmckinstry]

Tesla currently owns almost 4.5 square miles at Sparks so they are planning something...

More solar panels to provide all electrical needs for GF1 and sell power back to Nevada and California grids?

 

[Artful Dodger]

AAPL market cap is down 9.28% at today's close vs last Thursday.

That's ($99.6 B) in 3 days, or 1.7x TSLA total market cap.

 

[Thekiwi]

I asked a local, DISQUS User 'carsonight', about the possibility of creating a 'Teslatown'. This idea was first raised by Elon with NV Gov Brian Sandoval during a conference about a month ago. Carsonight says there isn't enough water in the Reno area to support a town of 10,000 people. Further, all water rights in the area are long since over-allocated and its a major limiting factor for residential growth. Gov Sandoval did not comment on the idea.

Wondering how Musk would handle that sort of response.

Not enough water to support a town of 10,000 people.

So does the cost of importing water daily by truck to support 10,000 people stack up on a cost/benefit basis?

(Meanwhile, over at SpaceX, the BFR life support system team is about to get a query about how far along the water recycling system is.)

EDIT: @mongo beat me to it 6 pages back!