TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

Every transaction involves an equal quantity of buying and selling. Put a different way, every purchase of stock requires an equal sale of stock by somebody else. And vice versa.

Volume = buying volume = selling volume.

No. These things have definitions
The Day Trader's Guide to Buying and Selling Volume

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla is seeking $167 million in damages from the former employee Elon Musk accused of sabotage

"Tripp was represented by Meissner Associates in the whistleblower matter earlier, but is now representing himself, attorney Stuart Meissner told CNBC. Meissner declined to comment further. Tripp also declined requests for comment."

The information is a little jumbled there. Tripp is not representing himself in the law suit where Tesla is suing him; the law firm Tiffany & Bosco is handling his defense in that one. The $100k question: Who is paying for Tiffany & Bosco to represent Tripp?

It is in his whistleblower case that Stuart Meissner dropped Tripp's case so he is now representing himself. (I don't understand how the whistleblower case works, is Tripp suing Tesla? Is Tripp suing the SEC to force them to take action?)

But the fact that the whistleblower attorney dropped the case, that he said was very strong makes me think that he got to the real facts and found out that Tripp was actually guilty of wrong doing and it was time to separate himself.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla can’t produce 2.5M cars per year in the world, let alone the US. At some point, they’ll probably need to advertise. That time is not even close to being here yet.

I referenced late 2020's .

And brand building ads now that emphasize The Mission and National Energy Independence.

Targeting teenagers/future buyers and Red State pickup/full size SUV buyers.

So when Tesla gets to 500K,1M,1.5M,2M, and 2.5M projected US deliveries the buyers are there.

 

[KarenRei]

The information is a little jumbled there. Tripp is not representing himself in the law suit where Tesla is suing him; the law firm Tiffany & Bosco is handling his defense in that one. The $100k question: Who is paying for Tiffany & Bosco to represent Tripp?

Do you have to ask?

 

[Krugerrand]

A EU GF (how's that for acronym salad?) will cost much more than the 10% savings on tariffs at this point, and is moreover not there at this point in time. Reality bites hard sometimes ,,,

Maybe I missed the post but don’t we have to include shipping costs as part of the savjngs?

 

[Curt Renz]

Mainstream coverage? Wow.

Interestingly, immediately after the Musk segment was broadcast by "60 Minutes", their online "Overtime" website featured a monologue by the segment's producer praising Musk for his openness and honesty, which the producer viewed as refreshingly different from that of other CEOs that they have featured. That monologue was soon removed from the website.

 

[AlexS]

thanx @Troy

combining Troy numbers and @luvb2b estimates, it looks that EPS numbers will be similar to Q3

 

[sparcs]

The $100k question: Who is paying for Tiffany & Bosco to represent Tripp?

Couldn't they be taking it on contingency to see what they can find out in discovery? Could be someone like Meissner looking for a payout from Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is seeking $167 million in damages from the former employee Elon Musk accused of sabotage

"Tripp was represented by Meissner Associates in the whistleblower matter earlier, but is now representing himself, attorney Stuart Meissner told CNBC. Meissner declined to comment further. Tripp also declined requests for comment."

Click here to support Tripp vs Tesla: Help fund the fight organized by Martin Tripp

Meanwhile, Martin Tripp has raised $18.5k on gofundme to "fight Tesla."

Goal is $500k.

 

[Cherry Wine]

thanx @Troy

combining Troy numbers and @luvb2b estimates, it looks that EPS numbers will be similar to Q3

I agree, though I'm wondering if the recent auto lease bonds would impact Q4 numbers? Or are those being issued in Q1 '19?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

if you translate the article:

The cars are shipped to Europe from the San Francisco plant in the US via the Zeebrugse site of International Car Operators. Electric cars are distributed across Europe from the coastal port. The new traffic is good for more than a hundred new jobs in the finishing center. There the Teslas are subjected to a final check and provided with extras before they go to the car dealer. The company invests 2.5 million euros in the new traffic.

so maybe these extras and checking are done to reduce import tax, but I have no idea.

I’m Dutch, so I got that far

The description of the activities and the total number of jobs is not comparable to what is happening in Tilburg, especially not when it involves 3000 cars per month. So I think they check them, and maybe install software and minor things. But not drivetrains and other large items.

Are you implying there's no incentive to building a GF in Europe? It's not just EU tariff, but also transportation expenses, delays.
Musk previously said it makes sense to have a separate GF per continent.

The demand will grow too, so Tesla can't send over 50% of production overseas long term.

Even if total now is 7k, 3k for Europe and some ?k for China, there's not much left for U.S.

The final assembly in Tilburg saves 5% on part of the car (there is a 10% import tariff on the car and ac5% import tariff on the parts that are installed later, like battery and drivetrain). So overall maybe a savings of 2.5%.

A European GF would save 10% on the whole car, plus save on shipping and handling costs.

 

[LoveTSLA]

“The chief financial officer of Chinese tech giant Huawei has been released on a $10 million bail, a judge in Canada ruled Tuesday.”
I think this is positive to the market.

 

[mltv]

I think the 2 disagreesvthis post garnered is from those afraid of their wives. I take no offense

This comes from one who did not use his real name.

 

[RobStark]

Well, maybe we should just wait until they’re producing 2.5m before we decide what’s going to be required to actually sell that many.

That has been the M.O. for marketing,sales, and service

Scramble mode.

Maybe time to act like a big boy Company?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Hi, everybody. My previous update was on 18 Nov, here in this thread. Here is a new update:

Production is going well. I see an increase and more activity on weekends. They are definitely adding more shifts to weekends. If they were to continue at the current rate, they would finish Q4 at 59,500 Model 3s produced. I don't know exactly what kind of increase we might see between now and the end of the quarter but being cautiously optimistic, I would expect a little over 60K but 61K could be possible too.

As for deliveries, I estimate about 12,000 Model 3's were delivered in the US in the last week. The reason for the high number is that the cars they shipped early in the quarter to the East Coast have arrived. The order backlog dropped from 20,000 to 8,000. This is a good thing because Tesla has promised 2018 delivery for orders placed by 30 Nov. New order rate is a bit low after 30 Nov. I estimate between 1,700-2,000, new Model 3 orders per week in North America, down from 2,500-3,000 on average before the 30 Nov deadline. This is not a problem because they will start production for Europe in early January. There is a chance EU production could start in the last few days of December if they clear the backlog.

My current estimates for Q4 are as follows:

Production:
60,359 Model 3 (up 13% from 53,239 in Q3)
24,909 Model S+X
Total 85,268

Deliveries:
60,596 Model 3 (up 8% from 56,065 in Q3)
14,911 Model S
12,754 Model X
Total 88,261

Tesla's guidance for Q4 is,

• More Model 3s produced and delivered in Q4 than Q3. They will hit this target.
• 100,000 S/X delivered in 2018. My current estimate is pretty close at 99,509.

Here are some useful links:

• Tesla Production and Delivery Estimates: 28 people added their estimates for Q4 2018. You can add your estimate too if you want. There is a link to a Google form on the top left.
• Teslike Model S/X Order Tracker: The 'S/X Production' tab shows the latest estimate. In Q3, this was 97.8% accurate.
• Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker: The 'Production' tab shows the latest estimate. This was 98.8% accurate in Q3. 4,818 Model 3 buyers have added their data to this survey since Apr 1st, 2018. I remove old entries every 3 months to make room.
• You can follow me on Twitter @TroyTeslike

Troy, Great work. My only comment is why would you estimate deliveries to exceed production? My thinking is the great the rate of production the greater the gap in deliveries over production. I'm interested in hearing your viewpoint.

 

[RobStark]

A EU GF (how's that for acronym salad?) will cost much more than the 10% savings on tariffs at this point, and is moreover not there at this point in time. Reality bites hard sometimes ,,,

Once the EU region (+Norway,Switzerland,UK?,Russia,Middle East) show demand is sustainably above 300k units per year it is advisable to build a EU GF.

$35k cars are not competitive when paying $3k in import tax plus transatlantic shipping.

Agreed that an assembly facility like that for Model S and Model X in Tilburg is probably not justified.

 

[hacer]

Elon and JB answered a question around this on the last earnings call or some other forum recently. Can`t recall their exact words, but they said that they Supercharger V3 would be 200-250 Kw as above that the trade offs are too big. My understanding is there is no "free lunch", so with the current chemistry you try to find a balance between charge speed, longevity, capacity, etc.

So I am also very interested in these 300-350 claims that the VW group has been making. I would love to be wrong, but there is always some fine print or other trickery with "these guys". Anyway, this is too much OT. But for this to become a game changing feature that would affect Model S sales and the TSLA share price (see what I did there, how I brought it back on topic?) I would like to see some real world tests head-to head 10 to 50% or 10-80% charge times compared to Tesla.

Also, I still think Tesla may surprise us once they roll out V3 Superchargers. I would bet the Model 3 is already capable of at least 200 Kw (as some have done the math and speculated on these forums) and since this is more chemistry than form factor related, may be that newer S and X with 2170 chemistry inside the 18650 cylinders would also turn out to be capable.

No trickery, the battery is just a regular service item like oil - you just replace it every 7,500 miles.

 

[Troy]

Troy, Great work. My only comment is why would you estimate deliveries to exceed production? My thinking is the great the rate of production the greater the gap in deliveries over production. I'm interested in hearing your viewpoint.

See the 'Deliveries' section of my post here from two weeks ago.

 

[STARR X]

Hey guys... I published this article about Tesla's competitive advantage regarding battery cells..... before I put it out there...

does anyone know of a traditional automaker planning to use cylindrical cells? Also has anyone seen a picture of the robots that wire the cells into the modules?

Thanks for the feedback....

Tesla’s secret sauce – Andrew Thomas – Medium

Rivian?

 

[electracity]

Hi, everybody. My previous update was on 18 Nov, here in this thread. Here is a new update:

Production is going well. I see an increase and more activity on weekends. They are definitely adding more shifts to weekends. If they were to continue at the current rate, they would finish Q4 at 59,500 Model 3s produced. I don't know exactly what kind of increase we might see between now and the end of the quarter but being cautiously optimistic, I would expect a little over 60K but 61K could be possible too.

As for deliveries, I estimate about 12,000 Model 3's were delivered in the US in the last week. The reason for the high number is that the cars they shipped early in the quarter to the East Coast have arrived. The order backlog dropped from 20,000 to 8,000. This is a good thing because Tesla has promised 2018 delivery for orders placed by 30 Nov. New order rate is a bit low after 30 Nov. I estimate between 1,700-2,000, new Model 3 orders per week in North America, down from 2,500-3,000 on average before the 30 Nov deadline. This is not a problem because they will start production for Europe in early January. There is a chance EU production could start in the last few days of December if they clear the backlog.

My current estimates for Q4 are as follows:

Production:
60,359 Model 3 (up 13% from 53,239 in Q3)
24,909 Model S+X
Total 85,268

Deliveries:
60,596 Model 3 (up 8% from 56,065 in Q3)
14,911 Model S
12,754 Model X
Total 88,261

Tesla's guidance for Q4 is,

• More Model 3s produced and delivered in Q4 than Q3. They will hit this target.
• 100,000 S/X delivered in 2018. My current estimate is pretty close at 99,509.

Here are some useful links:

• Tesla Production and Delivery Estimates: 28 people added their estimates for Q4 2018. You can add your estimate too if you want. There is a link to a Google form on the top left.
• Teslike Model S/X Order Tracker: The 'S/X Production' tab shows the latest estimate. In Q3, this was 97.8% accurate.
• Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker: The 'Production' tab shows the latest estimate. This was 98.8% accurate in Q3. 4,818 Model 3 buyers have added their data to this survey since Apr 1st, 2018. I remove old entries every 3 months to make room.
• You can follow me on Twitter @TroyTeslike

What do you estimate for 2018 total production?