TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Bullish_Bear]

A quick question: when could we know if Tesla has reached the 200k limit for full tax rebate for sure? Thanks!

 

[jhm]

Shorts have been killing us longs for over a year now. That's how long TSLA has been trading sideways with wild peaks and valleys. The only people making money are the swing traders and they have made a mint. Meanwhile the longs (and shorts) are wondering when the wild ride will end.

Actually if you accumulate shares in the valley, you can do well. Buy cheap, hold long.

 

[ken830]

Raise your hand if you've driven down the street and you stop at a stop light, stop sign, or pause to turn right and you've had kids on the curb yell "TESLA!" as you pass by them.

I've had it happen multiple times.

I don't know really know what this means. Maybe one of you guys can help me out here.

This happened frequently at the end of 2012 and the first half of 2013 in the SF Bay Area. After that, it just became too common. I put in a reservation in Sept 2012 and got the car in Feb 2013 and still two of my neighbors and three of my coworkers (at the time, I worked on Sand Hill Road) beat me in getting the Model S. The car still got attention when we are in SoCal (Disneyland trips) up until 2015. There are a LOT fewer Teslas in LA region compared to SF Bay Area -- I guess when the cost of the car is less than 5% of the average home price, it's a lot easier to justify here. Also, since the release of the Model 3, most of the people around me that are more financially sensitive have become Tesla owners. My dad and several friends & coworkers have already taken delivery with many, many more coming soon (I know my brother and at least 5-6 more friends have just placed orders).

I think the trend starts here. When the Model 3 & Y start becoming readily available, other parts of the country will start to look more like the Bay Area. I always use this as a gauge of what will be coming to the rest of the country in the next 5-10 years.

 

[cheshire cat]

Raise your hand if you've driven down the street and you stop at a stop light, stop sign, or pause to turn right and you've had kids on the curb yell "TESLA!" as you pass by them.

I've had it happen multiple times.

I don't know really know what this means. Maybe one of you guys can help me out here.

Over here (UK) there seems to be a very strong awareness of Tesla among the under twelve year olds the first comment I heard was"sick motor" from a five year old- had to look it up ;-) youngsters do get very excited and one lad nearly fell off his scooter, this bodes well for future customers

 

[jhm]

According to Cramer and CNBC, shorts are being “bulldozed.”

Asked what is it going to take to bring Tesla down when there’s a cult of followers who won’t sell? Cramer’s answer was “there you go, you just answered it.”

Shorts aren’t going to win, their large numbers could be detrimental to themselves when positive sentiments return.

Investors betting against Tesla are getting killed but not for the reason you may think: Cramer

I think the term Ponzi scheme is way overused, but consider the enterprise of shorting. One wave of shorts steps in and drives the price down a bit. This encourages another wave of shorts to enter and drive the stock down more. The fiat wave of shorts see a profit because of the second wave of shorts. This continues on until the last wave of shorts have saturated the market for sellers. The longs that remain are decidedly not going to sell. So this last wave fails to push the price down. Prior waves of shorts fail to see any incremental gains and begin to exit faster than a new wave can enter. The whole enterprise of shorting begins to collapse. It never actually produced any good. It just suckered in successive waves of investors to perpetuate gains for earlier waves of investors. Perhaps this should be called Not a Ponzi Scheme.

 

[sundaymorning]

Pre Market is showing Tesla at $310, let’s hope we cross it for good tomorrow. We’ve had a pretty good dip so far, time for a reversal.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think the term Ponzi scheme is way overused, but consider the enterprise of shorting. One wave of shorts steps in and drives the price down a bit. This encourages another wave of shorts to enter and drive the stock down more. The fiat wave of shorts see a profit because of the second wave of shorts. This continues on until the last wave of shorts have saturated the market for sellers. The longs that remain are decidedly not going to sell. So this last wave fails to push the price down. Prior waves of shorts fail to see any incremental gains and begin to exit faster than a new wave can enter. The whole enterprise of shorting begins to collapse. It never actually produced any good. It just suckered in successive waves of investors to perpetuate gains for earlier waves of investors. Perhaps this should be called Not a Ponzi Scheme.

I agree, the Ponzi scheme are created by smarter shorts calling on dumber shorts to enter, as more and more of the dumber shorts enter the smarter ones leave. So now we are loaded with dumb shorts, the smarter ones have likely exited their position since the stock was pushed down.

 

[sundaymorning]

436 new vins registered, 100% dual motors.

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) on Twitter

 

[Lessmog]

Trying not to push off the cliff into OT I tried to ad a pm to you through a conversation with lessmog but that is forbidden. The point I made is probably due to my confusion about what a cause is. (Fortunately I haven't time to brush up on something I read where Aristotle goes through at least four different meanings or uses of the word "cause." That might clarify my error.) The little I remember of an explanation of the general theory is that mass creates a space where another mass interacts with it like to balls in a rubber sheet stretched out initially flat. If you imagine the Earth and the Moon, each stretches space locally and the resultant motion of rotation is a balance which looks initially like the moon is "falling" to the Earth. That looks like, eventually, the Moon will fall into the Earth. Gravity sucks as the system wants to sink into a ground state, or some such physical term I'm incompetent to use not being a physicist. What I said in the original post might have been better phrased as "the effect of gravity is a consequence of the second law."

The idea can be tested. Won't the Moon eventually fall into the Earth? Barring, of course, passing through a field of dark energy or some such fudge factor. Not to troll dark matter or dark energy enthusiasts. That would attract dishonorable mention by the mods as OT.

God I love playing with you guys. But then maybe I'm just from another universe and don't know it. Are you? How could you tell? Surely the shorts sometimes are on this thread. And they create more entropy, useless waste. There. Back on topic.

I know we're heading to the edge of being OT, but as a one-time physicist, it's funny that you should conjecture about a connection between the second law and GR. The second law in its current formulation doesn't really have anything to do with GR, AFAIK. However, data-starved theorists can't sit around and do nothing, hence the exploration of entropic gravity, which sounds kinda cool. Regrettably, doesn't actually seem to apply to the universe we happen to be in.

Apologies for any confusion -- I was referring to Umberto Eco's novel, not the actual pendulum experiment.
My understanding of celest mechanics is limited and a little sparse.
But it's fun.

 

[Ellec]

436 new vins registered, 100% dual motors.

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) on Twitter

23 hours ago, keep up at the back!

 

[Tslynk67]

Raise your hand if you've driven down the street and you stop at a stop light, stop sign, or pause to turn right and you've had kids on the curb yell "TESLA!" as you pass by them.

I've had it happen multiple times.

I don't know really know what this means. Maybe one of you guys can help me out here.

Happens ALL the time, with the parents too :-D The kids usually start dancing too...

 

[Hogfighter]

Hasn't Hogfighter been trading based on the Hog Negativity Index using essentially this method?

Doesn’t work weekly, but it has been very profitable for me. It’s essentially the spread negativity in articles/twitter/SA and the actual performance of the company. It’s not just negativity....for example, when the X was delayed significantly (and Tesla Energy was eerily quiet) there were lots of negative articles, however they were justified and the SP stayed down.

Seriously not advice. You won’t be hearing from me for a bit, putting down my dog today.

 

[hoang51]

It actually may be all stocks. I read a study -- I think it used an index, or maybe it looked at a bunch of different stocks -- which said that the vast majority of gains from investing over 5 years were actually realized in three specific months or fewer, and that the stock stagnated the rest of the time. Wish I could find the link. Anyway, this may be normal for nearly all long-term investing.

I'd like to ready that study if you could find it .Sounds interesting.

 

[madodel]

I’m not selling, ever! Maybe some when stock is at $1,750. But not much.

Weak long. I'm holding out until $3k, and even then I might not if I'm getting decent dividends.

 

[lklundin]

Elon taking on the FUD on Twitter. Let the fun begin!

I just hope that Elon realizes that although he is very smart he should still consult with his legal advisors before making public statements regarding Tesla.

PS. Apologies if I am too far behind in this high-speed discussion.

 

[lklundin]

The only things the I-pace beats the 3 on is ride height, ground clearance and number of buttons/ knobs.

The I-Pace can drive through 50 cm (close to 20 inches) of water.

Apart from that impromptu amphibious drive by a crazy (or common?) Kazakh in his Model S, do any of the Teslas have a specified wading depth?

Watch a Tesla Model S drive (or swim) through a flooded tunnel [Video]

 

[kbM3]

Any OTA updates? What is range?

It's also a big wide open space in the west of the United States where people used to put homes... Deer and Antelope used to hang out there too.

And per Google the range of the I-Pace is 240 miles. I have serious doubts that it does over the air upgrades.

They have not reported EPA range numbers, last I heard, but expect somewhere between 240 and 260. Jaguar has committed to OTA upgrades - among the first OTA updates will be the implementation of Android Auto and Apple Carplay, in a month or two.

To add insult to injury, the IPace has a larger battery pack (90 kWh).

This would mean the efficiency vs. the Model 3's 80 kWh pack and 334 mile Epa range would be absolutely terrible:

Model 3 LR: 130 MPGe
IPace : 83 MPGe

Tesla pulled off a miracle with this efficiency. It beats even the BMW i3 which was made of carbon fiber reinforced plastic and has super skinny tires for high efficiency, tiny battery (33 kWh) for low weight and is smaller and has less performance. The BMW i3 was supposed to be a tour de force to exemplify BMW's engineering prowess in making the most efficient vehicle possible.

 

[Sancho]

Kids give me a thumbs up all the time as I drive by.

It’s worth all of us taking a moment to see Tesla cars from a 12 year old’s perspective. They love the design, they love the high technology, they even love the environmental impact. These are “cool cars”, period.

I’m a Tesla fan because of the environment. I’m a TSLA investor because they are making vastly superior products. Just ask a 12 year old.

 

[EVMeister]

It’s worth all of us taking a moment to see Tesla cars from a 12 year old’s perspective. They love the design, they love the high technology, they even love the environmental impact. These are “cool cars”, period.

I can personally relate to that very much. I'm not 12 year old, mind. Here in Northern England Teslas are rare. But we get the occasional Tesla parked up charging in town, and I see people of all ages go up and stare or make comments about it. The younger generation in particular.

 

[lklundin]

I think the term Ponzi scheme is way overused, but consider the enterprise of shorting. One wave of shorts steps in and drives the price down a bit. This encourages another wave of shorts to enter and drive the stock down more. The fiat wave of shorts see a profit because of the second wave of shorts. This continues on until the last wave of shorts have saturated the market for sellers. The longs that remain are decidedly not going to sell. So this last wave fails to push the price down. Prior waves of shorts fail to see any incremental gains and begin to exit faster than a new wave can enter. The whole enterprise of shorting begins to collapse. It never actually produced any good. It just suckered in successive waves of investors to perpetuate gains for earlier waves of investors. Perhaps this should be called Not a Ponzi Scheme.

I believe what you just described is a Pyramid scheme, which differs from the Ponzi scheme in the sense that everyone in the Pyramid scheme do the same thing, the difference being that those who start have little risk, while the huge numbers to enter last will exhaust the supply of new entrants and thus lose out.