TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JRP3]

Regulators are not immune from press coverage but should be driven by data. If Autopilot saves lives, are they really going to choose to kill people by shutting it down?

One would hope not but maybe if people keep crashing with autopilot enabled the numbers won't support it.

 

[Incredulocious]

People keep saying this: Tesla has to do something. Why suddenly is it Tesla’s problem that people drive distracted? It’s been going on for decades, having gotten particularly worse because of cellphones. Why doesn’t Apple or Android et al... do something about it? Why don’t fast food joints do something about people eating while driving? Why don’t those in charge of highway traffic laws do something about it?

Well, to be fair, people are demanding that others do something about distracted driving. There’s been lawsuits aganst cellphone software manufacturers like Apple, Apple now has an optional “do not disturb while driving” feature, individual states (and presumably some countries) are adding laws to make it easier to fine distracted driving and/or cellphone use while driving (like in California).

That said, I don’t really understand why Tesla allows such apparently long periods of hands off autopilot use (at least at high speeds) when autopilot is by definition not a fully autonomous driving feature (yet).

 

[mickificki]

Well, to be fair, people are demanding that others do something about distracted driving. There’s been lawsuits aganst cellphone software manufacturers like Apple, Apple now has an optional “do not disturb while driving” feature, individual states (and presumably some countries) are adding laws to make it easier to fine distracted driving and/or cellphone use while driving (like in California).

That said, I don’t really understand why Tesla allows such apparently long periods of hands off autopilot use (at least at high speeds) when autopilot is by definition not a fully autonomous driving feature (yet).

long periods of hands off use? have you driven a tesla with autopilot?

to me it seems like it's borderline too frequent.

 

[Runarbt]

One would hope not but maybe if people keep crashing with autopilot enabled the numbers won't support it.

There havent really been that many confirmed AP crashes. But they get media exposure out of another world.

The guy that drove into the pond drove without AP.

 

[Mkorpal]

I personally think it's a real problem that should be dealt with. Less so about un attentive drivers, and more so about why the program is making these false turns. What is the car seeing that is causing the problem? Rather than blame the driver, I'd prefer to see Tesla try to improve the product.

 

[Unpilot]

I personally think it's a real problem that should be dealt with. Less so about un attentive drivers, and more so about why the program is making these false turns. What is the car seeing that is causing the problem? Rather than blame the driver, I'd prefer to see Tesla try to improve the product.

You don't think they are? Of course they are looking at every accident and incident and trying to improve the algorithms.

 

[jelloslug]

I personally think it's a real problem that should be dealt with. Less so about un attentive drivers, and more so about why the program is making these false turns. What is the car seeing that is causing the problem? Rather than blame the driver, I'd prefer to see Tesla try to improve the product.

Where was the "fast turn"?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I, contrary, find @CuriousSunbird very contributing to the discussion and bringing forward interesting views, polite, and courteous. I wish he sticks around.

Just my opinion: @CuriousSunbird has had couple of interesting thoughts, though I found/perceive that he fails to address some of the most important feedback, and attacks easier targets. But I'll admit it takes a lot of reading to find few nuggets...
But I love @YasB contribution, best bear in this forum ever, pity we don't see more of him...

 

[JRP3]

There havent really been that many confirmed AP crashes. But they get media exposure out of another world.

Indeed, and I'm concerned about the numbers going up when a few hundred thousand Model 3's are on the road if there aern't significant improvements to either keep people more attentive or stop them from crashing. Obviously I'm hoping for both.

 

[madodel]

I go to Cologne a couple of times a year and usually see a couple in the old town and not too far from the HBF (assuming you mean train station here). Although i readily agree that the frequency is much lower than what I see in London.

Thanks. I guess I keep missing them.

I see a number of Germans posting here. Some seem very bullish and some are full on shorts. I was just beginning to wonder if there was some sort of resistance to buying the Tesla brand there.

 

[Krugerrand]

Because they are getting all of the negative press. Simple as that. If government regulators decide autopilot is unsafe and shut it down it's going to drastically impact Tesla.

Ye of little faith.

 

[kbM3]

Interesting take on projected numbers for Tesla going out to 2024. Gali is pretty high on what he sees down the road for the company. We'll see what plays out. What I am interested in however is what the stock will do in the short term...say the next 3-6 months. Gonna be a wild ride.

Dan

Intuitively, his $75k/unit auto revenue seems high (even though it includes service and supercharger use). I believe Models 3 and Y will drag this down faster than he estimates.

Energy growth seems to slow.

 

[Waiting4M3]

If you consider in small city I live in, Brussels, 1 million inhabitants, we have, I would guess 50 different bus routes (we have a Metro and tram system too). Looking at the real-time maps right now I see some route have 9 buses running, some 5, some, others just one (they are short routes), others 5. Let's assume 250 buses in total.

Now what's the average fuel consumption - quick scout around the Internet would imply around 2km/L for inner-city and I would estimate that each route is averaging 15kms and takes 45 minutes to complete (based on my experience of using). So that would imply in a day 6:00-00:00, 18 hours, with 15 minutes rest, it's 18x15x2=540L of diesel - I assume the bus has a huge tank and can hold this capacity without the need to return to depot. Maybe they can't go all day without fuel, maybe they cycle one out of the route and add one in every hour, I don't know.

But then, what capacity battery would be required to complete a day's work? I'm guessing it would be the same as the semi, which we don't know, but extrapolating from the consumption/km I think it's going to need around 700kWh. Now imagine the infrastructure needed to charge 250 buses in 6 hours, all in parallel. That's quite immense, not only from installing such super/mega-chargers, but on energy-drain. OK, would be distributed around several depots, but it's going to be challenging.

Given the above, I think FCH would be more practical. Not for general public use though, that's a no-go, totally.

Sorry for the long post, so early in the morning...

If I understand you correctly, if each bus needs to run a 15km route 18 times day, that's 270km, or 170 miles, are you saying that would need a 700kwh battery? Semi's battery size are for 300-500 mile range, and at freeway speed. Is it possible that buses will need a smaller battery pack? If each bus can handle a whole day with a 400kwh battery, with 250 buses, that's 100MWh of energy needed per day. If you distribute that to 5 charging depots, with 5 charging stalls each, then each stall needs to provide 4MWh. With Tesla's MegaCharger and 6 hour down time, it seems pretty feasible.

BTW, regarding the diesel tank size, if it's 2km/L, the size should be 18*15/2=135L.

 

[Lessmog]

[URL='https://twitter.com/elonmusk']Elon Musk Retweetade
Electrek.Co‏ @ElectrekCo 1 timför 1 timme sedan


Tesla Model 3 owner says vehicle ‘performed miraculously’ in high-speed rear-end crash, all occupants are safe http://electrek.co/2018/05/30/tesla-model-3-performed-miraculously-crash/ … by @fredericlambert[/URL]

 

[Krugerrand]

Well, to be fair, people are demanding that others do something about distracted driving. There’s been lawsuits aganst cellphone software manufacturers like Apple, Apple now has an optional “do not disturb while driving” feature, individual states (and presumably some countries) are adding laws to make it easier to fine distracted driving and/or cellphone use while driving (like in California).

That said, I don’t really understand why Tesla allows such apparently long periods of hands off autopilot use (at least at high speeds) when autopilot is by definition not a fully autonomous driving feature (yet).

Yes, my mother uses the driving DND feature on her phone, which is a pain when she’s the passenger and I need directions. The program doesn’t have a clue when she’s driving and when she’s not. But yes, aware of that feature.

To answer your last, you only need to peruse this forum the last time Tesla increased the nag feature of AP. Righteous indignation, screams of ‘I don’t need a nanny’, ‘I have rights including those to endanger myself if I damn well feel like it’, ‘This isn’t the product I paid for’, ‘Tesla devalued my vehicle, I want compensation’...and so on. Short answer, people are self-centered, irresponsible *****.

 

[Krugerrand]

The guy that drove into the pond drove without AP.

He might be alive if he’d been on it even though, if I recall correctly, that wasn’t a road AP is currently designed for.

 

[Lhan]

One possible solution is to start charging these people with a crime.

Instead of being a moving violation, it can be “negligent use of a motor vehicle” that has more serious consequences—some jail time, etc.

Brilliant ! Put people in jail for being stupid, that will sure make the for profit prisons owners happy.

 

[avoigt]

Thanks. I guess I keep missing them.

I see a number of Germans posting here. Some seem very bullish and some are full on shorts. I was just beginning to wonder if there was some sort of resistance to buying the Tesla brand there.

My answer: No! I do see more Teslas in my home town than lately at the east coast. I do spot at least one Tesla every day here and I don't move around a lot. My record has been so far 4.

No resistance here at all and a strong fanboy community as well from investors as from car entousiast's.

Also I am not convinced that shorts that appear here spreading nonsense (I would not call it Fud as they usually fail to create any uncertainty or even fear) claim to be from my country are indeed from here. I could list some indications why but its assumptions mainly.

Most uneducated Germans repeat the Fud they read in the news daily but if you give them some facts they understand quickly that they have been badly informed. I love in that respect the article from Karen who is a very smart and knowledgeable lady. We need more of those. Unfortunately I doubt that someone will pic all of those up and makes a blog or publish's it in the media.

An other set of people works for the auto industry or Gas& Oil or Media they either claim to be market leader in EVs today (believe it or not e.g. BMW) or they are in denial of EVs as a disruption.

That is a human behavior to make sure you feel safe with your job and that you are good to continue with what you did the previous decades. Managers in this companies get more nervous nowadays but feel like unable to change the organization. They either talk the talk everybody does or get frustrated and leave to EV start ups for instance.

 

[bdy0627]

Because they are getting all of the negative press. Simple as that. If government regulators decide autopilot is unsafe and shut it down it's going to drastically impact Tesla.

This is exactly why I'm concerned as a TSLA shareholder. I also think some kind of camera monitoring of the driver like Cadillac apparently has would likely decrease the number of Tesla crashes.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

This is exactly why I'm concerned as a TSLA shareholder. I also think some kind of camera monitoring of the driver like Cadillac apparently has would likely decrease the number of Tesla crashes.

It would also enable AutoPilot to be a hands-free system, which— inappropriately— many drivers already treat it as. I don’t know of any way to keep drivers’ attention on the road, but eyes on the road seems more important than hands on the wheel.