TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[gora321]

According to a technical, Danish news outlet (ing.dk), the above article is based on the Danish prime minister's speech at the opening of parlament (following their summer break), the actual speech is here:
Statsministeriet - Statsministerens tale ved Folketingets åbning, 2. oktober 2018

In this speech, he specified his government's goal of forbidding newly sold, pure ICEs from 2030 and to allow only ZEVs from 2035. Understandingly, this speech does not differentiate hybrids and plugin-hybrids.

The context of this information is important. Danish politicians are not fundamentally different from politicians in other countries, so there is a non-zero risk that (due to wholly unforeseen circumstances) the current government's stated goals will not actually materialize.

By accepting a ban from 2030 the government would actual help legacy automakers to transform. Legacy follows only legislation and I don't see additional effort. If they would let them they would produce ICE for 20-30-40 years. If BMW and other will success to stop such legislation than they are really doomed. Can you imagine where will be Tesla&co. after 12 years with no competitors?

Short term victory would mean death after.

 

[elasalle]

Not sure who made the mistake, but apparently a lot of publications repeated it. See here:

View attachment 340307

Could you make the FONTS a bit bigger

 

[Fact Checking]

Anyone have a guess when Model 3 #100,000 rolls off the line?

Late this week or early next week, most likely.

Tesla should make it a media event, to drive home the speed of the ramp-up.

 

[Tslynk67]

New Bloomberg TV interview with Romit Shah, about the Q3 delivery numbers:

Tesla Looks Set to Be Sustainably Profitable, Analyst Says

Oct.02 -- Romit Shah, analyst at Instinet, discusses Tesla Inc.'s surge in electric-car deliveries that could prove pivotal to earning an elusive profit, overcoming a series of distracting missteps by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. Shah speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."​

Completely fair interview and good analysis by Romit of "Tesla no longer investable" infame. The FUD in the summary above is not actually in the interview.

Romit Shah is a top analyst:

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/romit-shah

Ranked #326 out of 4,881 Analysts on TipRanks

60% success rate​

His current $300 price target for TSLA and 'neutral' rating might require slight adjustments.

BTW., I did sense a certain kind of surprise (maybe even shock) from the reporters when Romit mentioned that he thinks Tesla is now sustainably profitable and will stay so. It clearly threw them off and there was a slight pause.

He also killed the "no demand" FUD with a few simple sentences.

The thing is, these TV anchors feel deep contempt for companies and CEOs that are unprofitable and are struggling, and Tesla never having been "truly" profitable over a decade genuinely irks them. I believe this is the source of a fair chunk of the media bias tracked by @ZachShahan.

Elon the weird stammering nerd is strange to these reporters who were among the cool kids at high school. So they distrust and despise him intuitively, which gets projected to their reporting, often unconsciously.

But the same anchors revere genuine billionaires who make money, and that is what is going to kill the FUD from the business press I believe: financial success.

Tesla cash generation and profitability in Q3 and Q4 is IMHO going to trigger a true turnaround in the effectiveness and penetration of FUD.

Elon is soon going to be the weird nerd cool kid who is amazingly successful, to these reporters too, not just to us.

That turnaround of most of the business media is going to further help demand, and it will be positive for stock sentiment and the stock price as well.

Still ~4 weeks to go though.

Considering he downgraded basically because he "didn't approve of Elon's behavior", he can easily cite the SEC deal as a good excuse to put it back up again, and add a bit more while at it...

 

[Fact Checking]

Considering he downgraded basically because he "didn't approve of Elon's behavior", he can easily cite the SEC deal as a good excuse to put it back up again, and add a bit more while at it...

Yeah, and Elon's tweets have become a lot more mature lately as well - he might have grown up a bit in this regard. The Thai and SEC fallout might have been wake-up calls for him to self-improve.

I.e. Elon's behavior improved, objectively.

(Because the hardest software to fix is yourself.)

 

[Chickenlittle]

Thats an interesting piece of information to counter shorts:

In Q3 Tesla delivered 83.5k vehicles, or 908 per day. So 12.6k of unsold inventory represent less than 14 day worth of the current Tesla sales. For comparison, current inventory level for auto makers in US is 69 days, or about 5 times higher than for Tesla

Twitter. It's what's happening.

Unsold or undelivered? Cars in transit are sold just not delivered yet. Language needs to be precise

 

[Xenius]

Yeah, and Elon's tweets have become a lot more mature lately as well - he might have grown up a bit in this regard. The Thai and SEC fallout might have been wake-up calls for him to self-improve.

I.e. Elon's behavior improved, objectively.

(Because the hardest software to fix is yourself.)

Not that I'm like a lot here who seem to be souring on Elon, but I'm not totally sure he's matured. Just gotten more cautious. That OPP tweet was totally a dig at the SEC if I've ever seen one.

 

[lklundin]

My 2 cents: If losing the money you spend on the shares wouldn´t significantly affect the way you live today or your retirement plans and you don´t need to get margin to buy, go for it. Otherwise, scale down. Disclaimer: Just a hobby investor/fan, all I know I have learned here.

Thanks for this advice.

Since some of the TSLA buying opportunities have a duration on the order of hours, I have enabled margin buying, just so I can act on such an opportunity, while moving funds in from other accounts. So technically I have been buying on margin, but I would say that in reality I have not.

 

[andrewt3000]

New Bloomberg TV interview with Romit Shah, about the Q3 delivery numbers:

Tesla Looks Set to Be Sustainably Profitable, Analyst Says

Oct.02 -- Romit Shah, analyst at Instinet, discusses Tesla Inc.'s surge in electric-car deliveries that could prove pivotal to earning an elusive profit, overcoming a series of distracting missteps by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. Shah speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."​

Completely fair interview and good analysis by Romit of "Tesla no longer investable" infame. The FUD in the summary above is not actually in the interview.

Romit Shah is a top analyst:

https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/romit-shah

Ranked #326 out of 4,881 Analysts on TipRanks

60% success rate​

His current $300 price target for TSLA and 'neutral' rating might require slight adjustments.

BTW., I did sense a certain kind of surprise (maybe even shock) from the reporters when Romit mentioned that he thinks Tesla is now sustainably profitable and will stay so. It clearly threw them off and there was a slight pause.

He also killed the "no demand" FUD with a few simple sentences.

The thing is, these TV anchors feel deep contempt for companies and CEOs that are unprofitable and are struggling, and Tesla never having been "truly" profitable over a decade genuinely irks them. I believe this is the source of a fair chunk of the media bias tracked by @ZachShahan.

Elon the weird stammering nerd is strange to these reporters who were among the cool kids at high school. So they distrust and despise him intuitively, which gets projected to their reporting, often unconsciously.

But the same anchors revere genuine billionaires who make money, and that is what is going to kill the FUD from the business press I believe: financial success.

Tesla cash generation and profitability in Q3 and Q4 is IMHO going to trigger a true turnaround in the effectiveness and penetration of FUD.

Elon is soon going to be the weird nerd cool kid who is amazingly successful, to these reporters too, not just to us.

That turnaround of most of the business media is going to further help demand, and it will be positive for stock sentiment and the stock price as well.

Still ~4 weeks to go though.

Solid interview... here is the link... cuz embedded video is not working.

Bloomberg

 

[Fact Checking]

Thats an interesting piece of information to counter shorts:

In Q3 Tesla delivered 83.5k vehicles, or 908 per day. So 12.6k of unsold inventory represent less than 14 day worth of the current Tesla sales. For comparison, current inventory level for auto makers in US is 69 days, or about 5 times higher than for Tesla

Twitter. It's what's happening.

Careful:

• Vehicles "in transit to customers" are not unsold inventory, they are matched to real customers and the delivery acceptance rate is beyond 99%.
• We don't know the inventory levels , they are only disclosed as a lump sum of "finished goods", where composition is guesswork based on probable ASP and probable vehicle mix. Extra difficulty are vehicles traded in and put into CPO inventory - common when a lease is refreshed.
• For the Model 3 we could try to add up all production and subtract deliveries. Will do that later today.

So vehicles in transit are the wrong kind of inventory: they are sold inventory, not unsold inventory.

 

[mongo]

Careful:

• Vehicles "in transit to customers" are not unsold inventory, they are matched to real customers and the delivery acceptance rate is beyond 99%.
• We don't know the inventory levels , they are only disclosed as a lump sum of "finished goods", where composition is guesswork based on probable ASP and probable vehicle mix. Extra difficulty are vehicles traded in and put into CPO inventory - common when a lease is refreshed.
• For the Model 3 we could try to add up all production and subtract deliveries. Will do that later today.

So vehicles in transit are the wrong kind of inventory: they are sold inventory, not unsold inventory.

Sorry for the pedanticness (only clarifying due to financial implications, your point regarding days of inventory is totally valid):
In transit vehicles (unless going to Texas or such) are allocated/ assigned inventory, not yet sold. They do indicated the collection of the deposit amount.

 

[ggr]

Denmark embraces EV revolution with plan for fossil-fuel ban

VS

BMW CEO Krueger: EU target of 45% CO2 cut by 2030 is 'dreaming'

To full-fill BMWs volume (2,08M) up to 2030 including network? I think it is feasible.

It must be feasible or we're doomed.

 

[HG Wells]

Be aware that the Martian Delegation is expected to land around 2:15 Eastern Standard Time Today.



Martian High Command

 

[scaesare]

Seriously? Welcome to my ignore list.

Do people honestly believe this dribble? That the New York Times is running negative stories because of advertising revenue from automakers?

The New York Times makes 1.7 billion annually. They don't give a damn about advertising revenue from automakers. They're widely regarded as one of the most reputable news organizations in the world.

"The New York Times makes 1.7 billion annually". <-- So the NYT doesn't care about companies because they make money.

"...advertising revenue from automakers." <-- Companies that advertise are the source of that money.


Logic?

 

[tivoboy]

Let’s get back to our normal trading range 280-295 before earnings. ;-)

 

[hoang51]

So vehicles in transit are the wrong kind of inventory: they are sold inventory, not unsold inventory.

Unsold or undelivered? Cars in transit are sold just not delivered yet. Language needs to be precise

It would be more accurate to state that the cars are undelivered while in transit. A car in transit doesn't mean that it was paid in full. I know this because I didn't pay for my car in full until I was right next to it in the delivery room. It is true that one can pay prior to delivery while the car is in transit, but it's not the only option.

 

[MP3Mike]

Hi Wolfie. Let's be careful about the casual use of the term "charged". The SEC is not a law-enforcement body, they can not lay criminal charges. The SEC sued Elon. That puts it to a Judge or a Jury to decide the merits of the case, not the SEC.

Elon settled a law suit out of court. There were no charges, full stop.

Only the DOJ or other such law-enforcement agency can lay charges, which is now a less likely prospect since the SEC settled without requiring an admission of any wrongdoing, showing how weak their case likely was.

Well the SEC uses that word: SEC.gov | Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges; Tesla Charged With and Resolves Securities Law Charge

The SEC also today charged Tesla with failing to have required disclosure controls and procedures relating to Musk’s tweets, a charge that Tesla has agreed to settle.

 

[Todd Burch]

Looks like the market manipulators are trying to hold TSLA steady. Looks like we might need to wait until the conference call & financial numbers for the true sh*tstorm of short pain.

I've never seen a stock rise so intently, then get shot down quickly with spikes like TSLA. By far, the most manipulated stock in the market.

 

[Leo9]

Premium killing time.

 

[X Fan]

Shortsville Times: Mazda Announces Electrification and Connectivity Strategies for Cars That Invigorate Mind and Body

"By 2030, Mazda expects that internal combustion engines combined with some form of electrification will account for 95 percent of the vehicles it produces and battery electric vehicles will account for 5 percent."​

Actually, I lied, the headline and the quote is from a real press release from Mazda this week:

Mazda Announces Electrification Of All Cars By 2030​

The mind boggles, in 2-4 years these ICE makers are going to be in a world of hurt...

I've worked with many of the Japanese car companies.....they've invested significant research ¥ into self driving vehicles (at least 6 years now) but just didn't believe full scale EV's needed immediate/significant capital investment.

Clearly, they are wrong and its even crazier when you realize that Sanyo Electric (now owned by Panasonic) was a leader in battery technology.