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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Robert.Boston, Dec 31, 2014.
Technical Analysis has no predictive power, it just shows what happened in the past.
Three black crow and three white knight are both continuation indicators. In this case it has no bearing on stock movement because it appeared on a reversal.
A good case of the three black crow appeared recently. If you look at the island reversal due to Elon's twits. A 3 black crow candle stick followed and we hit rock bottom later.
And in the past weeks technical analysts were talking about the patterns that were showing us we were going to have a breakout. Where are they now? In the end all these technical predictions are just utterly useless.
It depends on your use case. Even if you think that they amount to oracle bones there is still some value in knowing technical predictions because they are predictable* which means you can predict how technical traders are likely to respond (depends on how disciplined they are). So, at the very least, the predictive power of technical trading is that it predicts technical trades
* I've seen enough about technical trading to know that there isn't a single system/prediction. Rather, there are a lot of "indicators" that are monitored and used to form predictions. However, it is more possible to predict technical traders following technical trading predictions than it is someone who throws oracle bones.
Technical predictions can be useful when you consider that tons of traders use them to spot signals, which creates a self-fulfilled prophecy. Like today if we jump right off $326 on the 50MA. Also I think Algos use them in some cases. But for the most part, they’re useless
In addition you always need to see technical indications in context of other stock price influences (news, fundamentals, macros, manipulations a.o.) and those influences increase and decrease at a given moment and need to be weighted separately and accordingly.
Using TA only will maybe give you a lucky punch but on the long run it does not work stand alone. Using it as one signal beside others including fundamentals and weighting the signals more or less heavy is where value can be found and predictions get more accurate.
Sounds complicated? Welcome to trading.
Exactly. T.A. is just another tool, and you do well to know the tool's in the other guy's toolkit as well.
For example today, we expect FED interest rate news around noon EST I think. And its likely to be positive, based on all the whinging on CNBC over the past week.
So in this analog hamburger eating computer, I integrate all that info and say the macros hold their breath until noon, then pop up. At least, that's what happened last month.
Then for TSLA, if its a high volume day, TSLA is unstoppable. If its low volume, shortz will beat it down with the slow fade maneouve they have become so adept at.
So we watch to see what ACTUALLY happens, prepared to change our minds if our expectations don't come to pass.
Craig Johnson is a managing director and the chief market technician at Piper Jaffray. He was a regular guest on my TV show and still sends me his newsletters. He is the one who pointed me toward a TSLA position in early 2013. Today he came out with a special note summarized below.
Summary: We believe conditions are right for an intermediate-term market bottom. We raised our recommended equity exposure to 90% from 85% this morning.
A bottom appears to be developing in U.S. equity markets. Oversold conditions are widespread, bullish divergences have formed in momentum, market breadth has deteriorated to historically washed out levels in our technical work, and bearish sentiment is at extremes. Based on the overall weight of the evidence, we believe investors should tactically deploy capital back into stocks. Rationale for this call and several stocking stuffer trade ideas are included in the following research.
And I like Linux better than Windows, 'vi' over 'emacs', Canon over Nikon, actually no, Sony over both of C/N...
Would you like to start any other holly war?
vi? vi? that's gotta be the worst (other than emacs). vim for the win, baby!
/me ducks and runs
...on topic-ish, still keeping an eye on $TSLA, although for me personally it'll have to drop a bit more to start buying in. Heck, its actually above NASDAQ? At least for now...
[edit, I'm not sure what I was seeing, still below NASDAQ]
Inverted hammer candle on daily chart?
dunno (I'm new). Wikipee says:
"When encountering an inverted hammer, traders often check for a higher open and close on the next period to validate it as a bullish signal."
So (as always) I'll watch for that higher open and close tomorrow. Zooming out, I do see that the Lower Bollinger Band is now at 325.91 and that the 50d MA is now above that at 327.74
I expect to test these levels this week, then good support off the 50d or a bounce off the Lower BB.
Macros excepted. Some analysts are now seeing a bottom forming. That'd be good for TSLA. I expect its another 10 trading sessions or so for any slow march up to return us to ATH territory.
However, there's Q4 Production News just 7 trading days ahead (Jan 2nd or so). So any positive news could catalyze a move up toward the Upper BB, which today sits at 378.05
That'd be a good setup for a break out in Feb on Q4 financials.
More now on TA. Let's look at how the technical indicators from close of day on Tuesday relate to Wednesday's trading range:
Tues Lower BB: $328.43
Wed Minimum SP: $329.74
Difference: $1.31 (0.40% diff)
Don't look at BBs as predictions, look them like the 2 goal posts in a footie match. They lay out the playing field for that day's match. Wednesday didn't have to go down as it did (we didn't know what the FED would do). but once News hit, the Market reacted by heading toward one of the two predictable outcomes. That's the power of TA.
There was strong resistance on the way down (lots of people want to own TSLA at this price), but buying was overcome by massive short selling. @Papafox tells us 68% of selling was tagged 'Short' yesterday, with much of that shorting likely occurred after the 2 PM News hit.
The upside is Shortz now have a legal committment to buy 5,6M more shares of TSLA sometime in the future!
Note we also saw strong support at the $330 level. The "per-minute" ASP data from NASDAQ never decended below 330.00 during the entire day's session. That's a pyschological support level because its easy for human traders to assign whole numbers, and thats also part of TA.
So now we will see what tomorrow brings. From the Stock Chart for Wed's Close, the BBs range was 325.91 to 378.05, and there is also another support level with the 50 day moving average at 327.74
So now we wait for News, and watch the Market. @anthonyj
The question mark right now is how much actual selling by shorts 68% of Tesla selling (according to FINRA data) translates into. Suppose because of ticker batching, 68% translates into 50% or all selling. That's still a very high amount. A fair amount of that short-selling could have been by brokerage houses and market makers for various duties of convenience and timing, so it is certainly not all short-seller new positions. Typically we don't see short interest increase by more than about 300,000 shares per day. Today was not typical, but there's a ballpark figure. Consider, too, that many shorts are churning shares by selling in big clumps, covering at a slower rate, then selling in big clumps again. For all these reasons, one has to be careful with drawing numerical conclusions about the number of shorts added to short interest.
That said, when 68% of selling carries a ticker tag of "short", it indicates a super-high level of selling activity by the shorts, enough to very substantially affect the stock price. For this reason, I am optimistic because even with this very high level of manipulative selling and covering today, shorts weren't successful in depressing TSLA nearly as much as the broader markets and typical tech stocks lost (on a percentage basis).
I agree, especially WRT the relative amount of shorting.
I also noticed your comment on Saturday that: "shorts have been known to favor non-FINRA-monitored sources of shorting when they wish their actions to be transparent"
So I think overall they are responsible for a great deal of the selling of TSLA stock.
What I would like to see from your data source is comparibles for other equities like AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN to compare the proportion of their selling tagged short.
It's interesting because when you look at AAPL on a day like today, it's showing about 39% of selling by shorts, and yet short-sellers only hold about 1.1% of AAPL shares right now. Obviously, there's a huge number of sales tagged as "short" that do not really involve short-sellers. What I can tell you is that the observable manipulations increase noticeably when the percent of selling by shorts number rises above the mid-50s. Look at how erratic the TSLA price was during the red afternoon hours. It was icicle after icicle as shorts depressed the price of TSLA and buyers brought it right back up again. It didn't help that the NASDAQ itself was somewhat erratic at this time because of the Fed message.
In fact, I think what the shorts were doing was pushing hard to trigger as many stop-losses as possible before close. TSLA actually dipped below 330 momentarily at one point. All this dipping gets the algobots warmed up and they do some selling that helps the shorts dip low and try to trip as many stop-loss triggers as possible. It's the worst kind of gamesmanship and the Short-seller Enrichment Commission (SEC) doesn't do anything about it. Elon Musk actually got that one right.
Expecting to bounce off 200ma tomorrow. If we slice through, well then, we’ve been had
Let's take a quick look at the Technical Chart for Q4. Notice how the opening days of October also had 5 down days in a row (Oct 2-8)? That move also took us from the top of the Bollinger Bands to the bottom:
That early Oct move was $65 (from $315 to $250), also about the same as the $65 move we've seen over the last 5 sessions (377 to 312).
A bottom then formed over the next 5 trading sessions, then small moves for the next 5. Finally, we broke out with the Citron/Left news on Oct 23 and we went into Earnings already on an upswing which lasted 2 months.
Shortz took advantage of poor macros to get their dirty work done early for Q1. But the extented length of the run up in Q4 was so long they had to hurry to get *sugar* done.
So I'm looking for the bottom now, I expect a pause to consolidate the SP, then some body to announce a "surprise" (nudge-wink) good news, and the runup starts all over again. That's why I call TSLA the "money-pump".
Kabuki Theatre or Klingon Opera, either way, it's Wall Street.
I believe short will make every effort to break the 200MA support tonight at all cost, this is the best timing to make the TA super bearish and make weak long go away.