TSLA Technical Analysis

[bdy0627]

The thing about technical indicators is that they really only work well in the absence of changes in fundamentals. Basically, they work until they don't work. Thanks for the data, but should something happen like the SEC prevailing, hiccups in the China GF (which might be most related to battery sourcing since Tesla apparently has to use Chinese battery suppliers and not Panasonic), etc. the price could drop even further.

Yes, that's true. Keep in mind the way the stock has traded includes a LOT of crazy events including Elon's 420 tweet, SEC lawsuit, major ramp issues first with model X then the 3, pot smoking, Autopilot deaths, Tesla fires, VPs leaving, China tariffs, Trump, the stock market dropping about 20% (but no protracted bear market), Tesla almost dying last year according to Elon, etc. It does cover a lot of different events but that does not mean the stock will continue to trade in the same fashion. It will until it doesn't. Shorts are betting it will be different this time (or are trying to cause it to be different this time.) Longs adding here are betting this is more of the same trading pattern we have seen for years.

 

[Sudre]

The thing about technical indicators is that they really only work well in the absence of changes in fundamentals. Basically, they work until they don't work. Thanks for the data, but should something happen like the SEC prevailing, hiccups in the China GF (which might be most related to battery sourcing since Tesla apparently has to use Chinese battery suppliers and not Panasonic), etc. the price could drop even further.

Or something happens like the SEC getting hand slapped, Tesla delivering 100K cars, a new federal at time of purchase EV incentive , or a miracle profit for Q1 with plenty of cash. The scales tip both ways.

As of now the stock has maintained this seesaw action with no real out of the park good news for Tesla and lots of negative things holding it back.

 

[nursebee]

Isn't it about time for someone to vomit?

 

[anthonyj]

Chart reeks of distribution :/

 

[bdy0627]

Looks similar to some prior dips to me. Take a look at November 2016. Pretty similar falling wedge.

 

[Electrifying]

That's my thought as well. hopefully it can break above the down trend line in a couple weeks, which happens to coincide with the Q1 delivery report.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Mind the gap! -- at 267 and another one at 260.

No rule that says that gaps always fill, but good to be aware. 260 gap is an island reversal and may not fill. 267 has a greater chance of filling. Maybe a dip down to 265 to form an inverse head and shoulders?? Just guesses. Let's see what happens...

 

[defc0n]

View attachment 381922
Price target of ~ $278 around March 27?

Hey I did pretty damn good!

 

[anthonyj]

Mind the gap! -- at 267 and another one at 260.

No rule that says that gaps always fill, but good to be aware. 260 gap is an island reversal and may not fill. 267 has a greater chance of filling. Maybe a dip down to 265 to form an inverse head and shoulders?? Just guesses. Let's see what happens...

I point this out regularly and get a bazillion disagrees but it always happens, TSLA always fills gaps up within a week. I think there are only two instances that it didn’t happen. Gap downs can take forever to fill though

 

[BBone]

I point this out regularly and get a bazillion disagrees but it always happens, TSLA always fills gaps up within a week. I think there are only two instances that it didn’t happen. Gap downs can take forever to fill though

Don't know enough about technical patterns so I'm learning from you guys and gals. I don't judge. Just trying to learn and see how things go. Thanks for the info.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I point this out regularly and get a bazillion disagrees but it always happens, TSLA always fills gaps up within a week. I think there are only two instances that it didn’t happen. Gap downs can take forever to fill though

Yeah, I definitely pay attention to gaps. I sometimes think that, with TSLA, gaps are more technically important than all the other indicators.

What you say about gap ups vs down may be true. I haven't really tracked it. But note that the gap at 260 and 290 from last October (the move up on the earnings report), didn't get filled until very recently.

Interestingly, this week, it gapped up every day since Tuesday open. That's three gap ups in a row, at 260, 267, and 274 (today). As a result, I sold some of my calls and am hoping to buy back in lower.

But when/if that happens so hard to predict. For example, we can go up into and after the Q1 deliveries report (next week), and be at 300-320, and then get slammed by the SEC thing a couple of weeks later. So hard to predict. That's why I never trade my core position of stocks and LEAPs. I only trade the shorter term monthly calls.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Is today's daily candle considered a hanging man?

Understanding the 'Hanging Man' Candlestick Pattern

Edit: Also noticed what looks like a "bullish engulfing" pattern on the weekly chart, but I'm unclear as to whether such a formation applies on a weekly chart the same way it would on a daily chart. Anyone care to weigh in on this?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Is today's daily candle considered a hanging man?

Understanding the 'Hanging Man' Candlestick Pattern

Edit: Also noticed what looks like a "bullish engulfing" pattern on the weekly chart, but I'm unclear as to whether such a formation applies on a weekly chart the same way it would on a daily chart. Anyone care to weigh in on this?

It is not really a hanging man because a true hanging man candle come at the very end of a major trend is bearish and often portends trend reversal
Never ever take daily candies seriously unless they are at the far end of a trend

Yes it’s a bullish engulfing pattern on weekly chart and a really good sign that $tsla is about to run up And highly likely to go up next week
Note especially right on 200week MA

 

[TrendTrader007]

Okay I can’t help but listen to blurred lines and notice:
Triple bottom in a base on base pattern with bullish engulfing pattern right on 200 week EMA
In short: shorts are screwed maybe as fast as next week
Time to load up on calls bro!

 

[TrendTrader007]

These are some of the monthly bottoming candles since 2010 IPO
Notice the similarities
See the underlying theme? I could sit here all night and make bullish technical arguments
In the end a stock’s gonna do what a stock’s gonna do
Period. End of story

 

[TrendTrader007]

Last but not least (love the cliche’) look no further than the quarterly candle
Let that be the shining star/guiding light on the firmament/ valley of death

 

[pz1975]

Good God no...

 

[anthonyj]

TT007 giving us the sell signal after the market is closed >.>

 

[Antares Nebula]

View attachment 391716 Last but not least (love the cliche’) look no further than the quarterly candle
Let that be the shining star/guiding light on the firmament/ valley of death

Honestly, I wonder how much weight you can put in monthly and quarterly candles...?

Yeah, I would say the chart looks good for a rebound. Weekly engulfing is nice. Daily looks good, though a bit gappy, which I'm always weary about. The last two daily candles can be interpreted bullish or bearish?? And lots of news this week. So my guess, bullish with lots of volatility. I want to add a few more calls, but debating whether I should wait for a retest of the 260 zone and gap fills...?

 

[nursebee]

Don't know enough about technical patterns so I'm learning from you guys and gals. I don't judge. Just trying to learn and see how things go. Thanks for the info.

There is not much to learn here...

Only price pays!