TSLA Technical Analysis

[EVNow]

The massively unstable geopolitical situation is creating serious jitters though and is probably going to cause a recession. Consumer non-durables should get hit first (Kraft Heinz is probably an example).

Isn't durables the first to get hit in a recession ? Staples are supposed to be the least affected.

With Kraft Heinz the main problem could be an actual shift in consumer preference for non-junk food.

I'd look at Whole Foods having problems in a recession rather than a cheap junk food company.

 

[neroden]

Isn't durables the first to get hit in a recession ? Staples are supposed to be the least affected.

Theoretically, usually, yes, but I think non-durables are going to get hit first this time. There's a LOT of discretionary non-durables these days, and a bunch of the popular durables are actually serious improvements over the previous generation.

With Kraft Heinz the main problem could be an actual shift in consumer preference for non-junk food.

I'd look at Whole Foods having problems in a recession rather than a cheap junk food company.

 

[anthonyj]

Pretty much today

Maybe this was the shock that Tesla needed to break the downtrend... let’s hope for good news soon.

 

[nursebee]

 

[defc0n]

Price target of ~ $278 around March 27?

 

[anthonyj]

Death cross

 

[neroden]

OK, this is starting to feel "SolarCity merger" level silly; the news reporting and stock price movement is just backwards from reality. I LOADED up on shares at that point, which was a very very good move.

 

[Navin]

Golden Shower

 

[BoringUsername]

OK, this is starting to feel "SolarCity merger" level silly; the news reporting and stock price movement is just backwards from reality. I LOADED up on shares at that point, which was a very very good move.

Are you loading up again?

 

[neroden]

Are you loading up again?

I'm tapped out at this point. Waiting for a merger arb to go through (or fail, either way). Selling some deep OTM puts though.

 

[defc0n]

OK, this is starting to feel "SolarCity merger" level silly; the news reporting and stock price movement is just backwards from reality. I LOADED up on shares at that point, which was a very very good move.

Tesla or Maxwell?

 

[ZachF]

SP is now heading towards the bottom trendline.

 

[Curt Renz]

The editor of the McClellan Market Report is my friend Tom McClellan. Tom’s 84-year-old father Sherman and his late wife Marian were the inventors of the McClellan Oscillator technical analysis tool in 1969. Sherm, who is still well, was a regular guest of mine on my TV show until he passed the baton to Tom many years ago.

This morning on CNBC, Tom again presented his current bullish macro-market case. Afterward I told him, "Your outlook appears contrary to most of the herd. That may result in your getting the last laugh." He responded, "Hope so. I prefer not to hear others voicing opinions I agree with. If I do hear them, I have to reassess my opinions."

Link to CNBC video: McClellan Analysis: Bull market to last until 2021

 

[Curt Renz]

Technical analyst Tim Ord was my regular guest on our TV show. This is what he wrote after today's market close regarding technical indicators for the S&P 500 (SPX).

For monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 3/8/19 at 2743.07.
Equity Put/Call closed yesterday at .76 Predict higher Within 5 days 86% of the time.
VIX lower low SPX lower low and closes near +16 (closed at +16.09)
3 day Trin at 1.44 in bullish levels.
SPX down five days in a row, next day higher 80% of the time and next week higher 80% of the time; week average gain is 4%.

All the Best,
Tim Ord
Ord Oracle - Home

 

[anthonyj]

TSLA is kept in the insane trading range because of low float, very easy to manipulate. Market makers are making silly amounts of money selling calls/puts. Hits max pain on the dot 75% of the time. I don’t predict 400+ until even Helen Keller can see that Tesla won’t go bankrupt

 

[anthonyj]

Chart looks like it’s setting up to make an extreme move like we’ve never seen before. Q1 will be very interesting.

Surprised at the lack of short selling volume recently too. Bears are not confident in shorting at these prices, check it out:

TSLA | Volumebot

Only 37% today. That’s like a record low.

 

[ggr]

Chart looks like it’s setting up to make an extreme move like we’ve never seen before. Q1 will be very interesting.

Surprised at the lack of short selling volume recently too. Bears are not confident in shorting at these prices, check it out:

TSLA | Volumebot

Only 37% today. That’s like a record low.

I tend to agree with (what I think is) @Papafox's position. The serious short sellers have found a way to keep their trades out of that report, and the fact that they have all hit upon it at the same time is just more evidence that they're all working together.

 

[smorgasbord]

The serious short sellers have found a way to keep their trades out of that report, and the fact that they have all hit upon it at the same time is just more evidence that they're all working together.

Or, it could simply be that smart people don't want to short TSLA going into a Tesla product unveiling (tonight!).

 

[bdy0627]

On the weekly chart, the stock is right at the 200 moving average. It has only briefly dropped below the 200 moving average dating back to 2015. That level has been an excellent spot to buy. We are at that point again now. The stock briefly dropped about 10% below the 200 MA back in early 2016, but it typically has kept within 5% of it. The longest it has taken to rise at least 20% from there is 7 weeks back in late 2016/early 2017. That was very unusual though. It typically takes just 2-3 weeks to rise 20%. We'll see how it plays out this time.

 

[smorgasbord]

On the weekly chart, the stock is right at the 200 moving average. It has only briefly dropped below the 200 moving average dating back to 2015. That level has been an excellent spot to buy. We are at that point again now. The stock briefly dropped about 10% below the 200 MA back in early 2016, but it typically has kept within 5% of it. The longest it has taken to rise at least 20% from there is 7 weeks back in late 2016/early 2017. That was very unusual though. It typically takes just 2-3 weeks to rise 20%. We'll see how it plays out this time.

The thing about technical indicators is that they really only work well in the absence of changes in fundamentals. Basically, they work until they don't work. Thanks for the data, but should something happen like the SEC prevailing, hiccups in the China GF (which might be most related to battery sourcing since Tesla apparently has to use Chinese battery suppliers and not Panasonic), etc. the price could drop even further.