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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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FWIW, I'm a complete noob at Technical Analysis, so I picked up Murphy's text on Technical Analysis. In my reading he has a chart on a bullish symmetric triangle below:
When I looked at a 1 year trend on TSLA, here's what I saw (I added the lines):
I was struck by the similarities of the chart (obviously TSLA is in flux right now)!
I emailed a friend who has more knowledge, and he replied that my predicted price target for TSLA at 260 was optimistic. Whereupon I replied that I had no idea how to get a price target of 260 from the chart and asked him how he got that!? He hasn't got back yet...
When I looked at a 1 year trend on TSLA, here's what I saw (I added the lines):
I was struck by the similarities of the chart (obviously TSLA is in flux right now)!
I emailed a friend who has more knowledge, and he replied that my predicted price target for TSLA at 260 was optimistic. Whereupon I replied that I had no idea how to get a price target of 260 from the chart and asked him how he got that!? He hasn't got back yet...
Wonder the usefulness of charts in predicting SP movements . Do they take into consideration current events as an influencing factor ? Recently read a chart analysis by Todd Gordon of CNBC which says tesla may turn around at 210 where the two lines meet and breakthrough to a new high but apparently didn't happen . The post was end of August.
I'm not sure about day to day movements. From what I was reading (I haven't finished the book), the short term is really hard to predict. Lot's of variables (volume, open interest, percentage over/under the resistance/support etc...) gives clues to what is happening. I do not think they can account for sudden shifts, since much of what technicals are based on are historical movements, from what I've read.
Then there's always sudden events (e.g. SpaceX explosion) which throw a wrench into things. I suspect with SpaceX there are computer high frequency algorithms which scour the news/social media, and then make trades from it. I suspect that these are the modern "new" technical analysis with social medial trends amplified by the high frequency trades. You can see it here on TMC if you look at the "members" list, there's always bots looking through the threads. But since I'm not a bot or have a HF algo to do my work, I'm just trying to learn the basics.
The chart I found in the book was a monthly cycle (over a quarter to play out), and oddly the chart I found of TSLA was also the same (monthly), with a very similar pattern. It looks different at the end, where Dell had an up trading week which presaged a breakout. TSLA is still down toward the end, so I suspect we haven't seen down days yet. Further TSLA is still below all moving averages which is bearish and we are going into a big macro week (fed meeting, hence the down Friday). So it seems lots of stuff maybe keeping SP down for the week, but next month, who knows...
My friend who projected the 260 SP (not me, I don't know how), commented that had TSLA not announced a merger with SCTY he felt TSLA would definitely be going to 260. My reading was that if you believe in the technicals, then that uncertainty has already been baked into the price trend that we are seeing (arguably the big price drop after merger announcement in June). If he can see/project 260 from the chart, then theoretically that's where it should be going. Probably not tomorrow or next week, but later.
That being said, I'm still learning about this stuff, but find it pretty fascinating to try to discern trends from the patterns. I'm trying to see if the technicals can help me discern good entry price points, coupled with current events/announcements/macros and fundamental analysis. I am long on TSLA for full disclosure.
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I'm also long tesla. Let's hope it hits 260 first week of Oct after release of q3 results
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I always believed that charts are completely useless for stock analysis until I watched DaveT's Google hangout video with Jesse. There's a thread about it on this forum.
technically, pretty crappy. below all the moving averages, just had a death cross. But at the bottom bollinger band as of close monday. But tons of catalysts coming that will determine the direction.
Inspired by @ggr, to watch the price of oil as well:
A chartist explains why oil's breather won't last long—and is targeting $70
Inverted head and shoulders. Over 5 month period for left shoulder, and projected same period for right shoulder to now, October. Projecting upper resistance around 60s. Indicates if breaks below 40s, then it would be a failed pattern. Interesting, since TSLA may benefit from higher oil prices...(add that to ER).
A chartist explains why oil's breather won't last long—and is targeting $70
Inverted head and shoulders. Over 5 month period for left shoulder, and projected same period for right shoulder to now, October. Projecting upper resistance around 60s. Indicates if breaks below 40s, then it would be a failed pattern. Interesting, since TSLA may benefit from higher oil prices...(add that to ER).
Ok here's my newbie take:
I believe TSLA is forming a double bottom (Eve-Eve configuration). Started 9/1, Gap in 10/3 shows our resistance/confirmation level at 213 or so. This would imply that the right bottom could end early November (Nov 2?) with a confirmation of 213. Suggests target price from there up to 235 or so if it goes above 213 (200 day MA is 212.87).
I believe TSLA is forming a double bottom (Eve-Eve configuration). Started 9/1, Gap in 10/3 shows our resistance/confirmation level at 213 or so. This would imply that the right bottom could end early November (Nov 2?) with a confirmation of 213. Suggests target price from there up to 235 or so if it goes above 213 (200 day MA is 212.87).
pz1975
Active Member
This post is not meant to be specifically about you, GoTslaGo. I have been on this forum for 2+ years now and I have read probably hundreds of predictions for the stock price based on technical indicators in that time, some from experts here, some from novices here, some from external experts. I honestly cannot remember even one time that one of these predictions actually came true. I am sure there have been a handful, but I cannot remember any. And I don't mean general predictions like "The stock will go up/down" over the next few weeks/months as those have a 50% chance to be correct. I mean short-term predictions based on specific technical indicators. I have always felt the whole technical thing wasn't just a modern-day form of tea-leaf reading. It seems like it really isn't any better (or maybe worse?) than the proverbial "broken clock is right twice a day."
I can think of one. Back in 2013 or 14 there was a bull flag formed. That was supposed to predict a resumption of the trend and indeed it did. Of course there were real reasons for that rise and like you I think we have a bad track record.
I'm new to Tech analysis and prior to studying it I felt the same way. However as I read more and thought about it, there is a psychological basis to TA which makes sense. How resistance and support is formed is based on where and when people/institutions buy into the stock and what prices they can make some or lose the least amount of money.
Extending it out it occurred to me that since a lot of traders out there and analysts are using TA, then there is a psychological positive feedback loop occurring. So if a bunch of traders are seeing the same patterns, while they may not come to the same price point, they will tend to pursue the same trend. If I can see what they are seeing then I can at least keep up with their game.
My goal in posting here is to see if my learning and understanding of the subject makes sense. Attempting to get at a number is just my way of checking on my own knowledge base. Ideally if other TA interested people begin to post over here it would be a good way for all of us to share knowledge about TA and improve our understanding of the subjects.
My other reason to post TA stuff here is to encourage others who are using and looking at TA to post over here, and to decrease TA posts over in the short term thread. I'd like to encourage posters to use all the available threads here on TMC rather than bunch everything into a few threads.
I became interested in TA because as a long-term holder of TSLA I was looking for entry points into TSLA. I remember the frustration of several nights of trying to figure out what were good price points for me to get into the stock and what was the logic behind the price movements. Learning about TA, using it and combining it with things I've read on TMC and elsewhere has helped me find multiple points to accumulate additional shares.
Finally, I did notice that TSLA does some strange things with its SP. Using TA I've seen some pretty classic price movements with other stocks that are not so heavily, emotionally shorted. Even ones that are heavily shorted follow the rules better than TSLA. I'd love to know if TA rules still work with merging stocks.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
So yeah, here's why we ended up where we did in AH today. With some analyst upgrades it shouldn't be hard to break through all that resistance but it might take more than 1 day if the shorts don't cover but instead short more (just like a long might buy on dips until they have to tap out due to a margin call). We also have the event Friday night and financials Nov 1 so some longs may hold off buying until after those events so I would be aware of all this tomorrow and not assume everything is golden tomorrow. On the other hand, shorts may start a stampede as they try to cover and longs may buy in due to FOMO ahead of the events and we could get an awesome rally.
I couldn't help notice how SCTY and TSLA candlestick patterns were very similar the last 5-6 days. Has anyone seen something similar with other stocks that are merging?
What I found particularly interesting was how SCTY yesterday basically formed a "Southern Doji" (yes I am being a little liberal with the Doji, I know), presaging today's gap up. TSLA seemed to be doing something similar, but not as dramatic.
Seems SCTY is moving more quickly than TSLA in the patterns, maybe because it's the cheaper stock?
What I found particularly interesting was how SCTY yesterday basically formed a "Southern Doji" (yes I am being a little liberal with the Doji, I know), presaging today's gap up. TSLA seemed to be doing something similar, but not as dramatic.
Seems SCTY is moving more quickly than TSLA in the patterns, maybe because it's the cheaper stock?
3Victoria
Active Member
Sorry, cross post from short thread
Chart On Watch: Tesla Motors Inc Formed a Bullish Descending Triangle Pattern, Could Be One of The Best Performers Soon - Chester Independent
Chart On Watch: Tesla Motors Inc Formed a Bullish Descending Triangle Pattern, Could Be One of The Best Performers Soon - Chester Independent
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I for one appreciate the cross post - I mostly stay out of the Short Term thread (too active, doesn't fit my investment profile), and to the extent generally useful information gets posted in that thread due to its activity, I miss it.
Thanks
Thanks
@Lump,
As promised, I did some research into Mergers to see how they affect the stock trends and patterns. You are right! There does seem to be a definite concordance of the pattern, EVEN on the intra-day patterns. There are exceptions. I dug up a bunch of mergers planned for this year with stock swaps. Two of the mergers, the intra-day patterns on the shares are pretty identical. One is off.
(There were more which were followed the concordant stock pattern, even on the intra-day movements. I left them off because I was getting tired of copying, cutting and pasting).
Here they are:
First is a three way merger between CLNY:NSAM:NRF. Don't ask me why and who they are but they are a straight stock swap between the three companies. I included the monthly data, with daily periods on this one. Similar intraday patterns.
The next is SCNB--BCT. Similar intraday. I didn't bother with the monthly on this one, they're the same.
Finally, this was the anomaly. LSBG:BHB. Only the intraday patterns on this one. The monthly looked the same.
So it seems, on the whole, the longer term and intraday patterns do start to follow each other pretty closely in most cases. There are always exceptions. I did not control for other variables (price between stocks, short interest, etc...), but just wanted a general overview of how the patterns are working.
That being said, it does imply there is some type of market making going on in the background behind merging stocks. Maybe not entirely by short sellers, but someone or something is moving merging stocks in unison.
As promised, I did some research into Mergers to see how they affect the stock trends and patterns. You are right! There does seem to be a definite concordance of the pattern, EVEN on the intra-day patterns. There are exceptions. I dug up a bunch of mergers planned for this year with stock swaps. Two of the mergers, the intra-day patterns on the shares are pretty identical. One is off.
(There were more which were followed the concordant stock pattern, even on the intra-day movements. I left them off because I was getting tired of copying, cutting and pasting).
Here they are:
First is a three way merger between CLNY:NSAM:NRF. Don't ask me why and who they are but they are a straight stock swap between the three companies. I included the monthly data, with daily periods on this one. Similar intraday patterns.
The next is SCNB--BCT. Similar intraday. I didn't bother with the monthly on this one, they're the same.
Finally, this was the anomaly. LSBG:BHB. Only the intraday patterns on this one. The monthly looked the same.
So it seems, on the whole, the longer term and intraday patterns do start to follow each other pretty closely in most cases. There are always exceptions. I did not control for other variables (price between stocks, short interest, etc...), but just wanted a general overview of how the patterns are working.
That being said, it does imply there is some type of market making going on in the background behind merging stocks. Maybe not entirely by short sellers, but someone or something is moving merging stocks in unison.
GoTslaGo, since CLNY, NSAM, and NRF all trade on the NYSE, perhaps you can include a similar chart for the same period of what the Dow or other NYSE chart was doing during this time period so that we could see if all three stocks were primarily tracking the broader market or if we saw a uniform departure of these three from the broader market. Thanks!
Alright, here we go: (sorry about the format change between NASDAQ to NYSE, to Marketwatch)
Here's the DJIA (3 month, 1 day period), and intraday:
Here's NYSE (3 month, 1 day period) and intraday:
To recap here's CLNY, etc...:
So it looks like they are only kind of tracking the indices. Intraday is closer. The indices on the longer time frame seem to be identically tracking the banking stocks (the other merging stocks!).
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