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Wonder the usefulness of charts in predicting SP movements . Do they take into consideration current events as an influencing factor ? Recently read a chart analysis by Todd Gordon of CNBC which says tesla may turn around at 210 where the two lines meet and breakthrough to a new high but apparently didn't happen . The post was end of August.FWIW, I'm a complete noob at Technical Analysis, so I picked up Murphy's text on Technical Analysis. In my reading he has a chart on a bullish symmetric triangle below:
View attachment 194112
When I looked at a 1 year trend on TSLA, here's what I saw (I added the lines):
View attachment 194113
I was struck by the similarities of the chart (obviously TSLA is in flux right now)!
I emailed a friend who has more knowledge, and he replied that my predicted price target for TSLA at 260 was optimistic. Whereupon I replied that I had no idea how to get a price target of 260 from the chart and asked him how he got that!? He hasn't got back yet...
Wonder the usefulness of charts in predicting SP movements . Do they take into consideration current events as an influencing factor ? Recently read a chart analysis by Todd Gordon of CNBC which says tesla may turn around at 210 where the two lines meet and breakthrough to a new high but apparently didn't happen . The post was end of August.
I'm not sure about day to day movements. From what I was reading (I haven't finished the book), the short term is really hard to predict. Lot's of variables (volume, open interest, percentage over/under the resistance/support etc...) gives clues to what is happening. I do not think they can account for sudden shifts, since much of what technicals are based on are historical movements, from what I've read.
Then there's always sudden events (e.g. SpaceX explosion) which throw a wrench into things. I suspect with SpaceX there are computer high frequency algorithms which scour the news/social media, and then make trades from it. I suspect that these are the modern "new" technical analysis with social medial trends amplified by the high frequency trades. You can see it here on TMC if you look at the "members" list, there's always bots looking through the threads. But since I'm not a bot or have a HF algo to do my work, I'm just trying to learn the basics.
The chart I found in the book was a monthly cycle (over a quarter to play out), and oddly the chart I found of TSLA was also the same (monthly), with a very similar pattern. It looks different at the end, where Dell had an up trading week which presaged a breakout. TSLA is still down toward the end, so I suspect we haven't seen down days yet. Further TSLA is still below all moving averages which is bearish and we are going into a big macro week (fed meeting, hence the down Friday). So it seems lots of stuff maybe keeping SP down for the week, but next month, who knows...
My friend who projected the 260 SP (not me, I don't know how), commented that had TSLA not announced a merger with SCTY he felt TSLA would definitely be going to 260. My reading was that if you believe in the technicals, then that uncertainty has already been baked into the price trend that we are seeing (arguably the big price drop after merger announcement in June). If he can see/project 260 from the chart, then theoretically that's where it should be going. Probably not tomorrow or next week, but later.
That being said, I'm still learning about this stuff, but find it pretty fascinating to try to discern trends from the patterns. I'm trying to see if the technicals can help me discern good entry price points, coupled with current events/announcements/macros and fundamental analysis. I am long on TSLA for full disclosure.
I'm not sure about day to day movements. From what I was reading (I haven't finished the book), the short term is really hard to predict. Lot's of variables (volume, open interest, percentage over/under the resistance/support etc...) gives clues to what is happening. I do not think they can account for sudden shifts, since much of what technicals are based on are historical movements, from what I've read.
Then there's always sudden events (e.g. SpaceX explosion) which throw a wrench into things. I suspect with SpaceX there are computer high frequency algorithms which scour the news/social media, and then make trades from it. I suspect that these are the modern "new" technical analysis with social medial trends amplified by the high frequency trades. You can see it here on TMC if you look at the "members" list, there's always bots looking through the threads. But since I'm not a bot or have a HF algo to do my work, I'm just trying to learn the basics.
The chart I found in the book was a monthly cycle (over a quarter to play out), and oddly the chart I found of TSLA was also the same (monthly), with a very similar pattern. It looks different at the end, where Dell had an up trading week which presaged a breakout. TSLA is still down toward the end, so I suspect we haven't seen down days yet. Further TSLA is still below all moving averages which is bearish and we are going into a big macro week (fed meeting, hence the down Friday). So it seems lots of stuff maybe keeping SP down for the week, but next month, who knows...
My friend who projected the 260 SP (not me, I don't know how), commented that had TSLA not announced a merger with SCTY he felt TSLA would definitely be going to 260. My reading was that if you believe in the technicals, then that uncertainty has already been baked into the price trend that we are seeing (arguably the big price drop after merger announcement in June). If he can see/project 260 from the chart, then theoretically that's where it should be going. Probably not tomorrow or next week, but later.
That being said, I'm still learning about this stuff, but find it pretty fascinating to try to discern trends from the patterns. I'm trying to see if the technicals can help me discern good entry price points, coupled with current events/announcements/macros and fundamental analysis. I am long on TSLA for full disclosure.
I always believed that charts are completely useless for stock analysis until I watched DaveT's Google hangout video with Jesse. There's a thread about it on this forum.Wonder the usefulness of charts in predicting SP movements . Do they take into consideration current events as an influencing factor ? Recently read a chart analysis by Todd Gordon of CNBC which says tesla may turn around at 210 where the two lines meet and breakthrough to a new high but apparently didn't happen . The post was end of August.
It has been awfully quiet here lately in this thread. How does TSLA chart look?
This post is not meant to be specifically about you, GoTslaGo. I have been on this forum for 2+ years now and I have read probably hundreds of predictions for the stock price based on technical indicators in that time, some from experts here, some from novices here, some from external experts. I honestly cannot remember even one time that one of these predictions actually came true. I am sure there have been a handful, but I cannot remember any. And I don't mean general predictions like "The stock will go up/down" over the next few weeks/months as those have a 50% chance to be correct. I mean short-term predictions based on specific technical indicators. I have always felt the whole technical thing wasn't just a modern-day form of tea-leaf reading. It seems like it really isn't any better (or maybe worse?) than the proverbial "broken clock is right twice a day."
This post is not meant to be specifically about you, GoTslaGo. I have been on this forum for 2+ years now and I have read probably hundreds of predictions for the stock price based on technical indicators in that time, some from experts here, some from novices here, some from external experts. I honestly cannot remember even one time that one of these predictions actually came true. I am sure there have been a handful, but I cannot remember any. And I don't mean general predictions like "The stock will go up/down" over the next few weeks/months as those have a 50% chance to be correct. I mean short-term predictions based on specific technical indicators. I have always felt the whole technical thing wasn't just a modern-day form of tea-leaf reading. It seems like it really isn't any better (or maybe worse?) than the proverbial "broken clock is right twice a day."
GoTslaGo, since CLNY, NSAM, and NRF all trade on the NYSE, perhaps you can include a similar chart for the same period of what the Dow or other NYSE chart was doing during this time period so that we could see if all three stocks were primarily tracking the broader market or if we saw a uniform departure of these three from the broader market. Thanks!