[UK centred discussion] The cat is out of the bag. True FSD will never happen for cars below HW4

[argon2018]

So you believe Elon claims...

Let's pause for a minute and remind ourselves that FSD means "Full Self Driving". This is what was sold to consumers. Here. In Europe. I'm not a lawyer but this is misleading.

If FSD was indeed ready or safer, Tesla would put their money where their mouth is and file FSD as truly autonomous Level 3, with the liability that ensues.
The fact that they are still years away from this, while other manufacturers such as Mercedes & Volvo will release models in 2023, beating Tesla to it, says it all.

Biggest car buying mistake I’ve ever made. I half believed the hype in 2019 and am getting more and more grumpy about the fact that I feel misled (or a fool). FSD was what was promised …. What a con !

Well guess how I feel when I bought model 3 with fsd then traded to model y also with fsd and now model x plaid with fsd with the same old ass cameras. I was an investor and a big fan. Made so many referrals. But now I feel deceived

 

[CWT3LR]

I understand what you're trying to say, but that's very shortsighted given the macro economic conditions over the last 12-18 months. TSLA should be part of many long term portfolios

Agree that others are ramping up, but Tesla has been and continues to ramp up as they decrease their per unit costs. It's not even close.

View attachment 900868

Tesla account for 16% of annual global sales of BEV. Down from over 20% two years ago, and as current inventory shows, has fallen further.

 

[Artiste]

Of course FSD isn’t just about hardware. It’s about AI, Deep Learning and neural nets. Yoshua Bengio, one of the top worldwide researchers in Deep Learning, is saying that the neural nets we currently use are comparable in complexity to the brain of a frog. Can you teach a frog how to drive a car better than a human? I don't think so. The science is just not there yet. Tesla should refocus its efforts in driver assist, make their experience more enjoyable and forgot about robot taxis.

No doubt the true believers will tell me Tesla’s AI is so much more advanced, and we already know DoJo is going to solve everything. Perhaps Tesla’s neural nets have the brain of a toad.

 

[CWT3LR]

Of course FSD isn’t just about hardware. It’s about AI, Deep Learning and neural nets. Yoshua Bengio, one of the top worldwide researchers in Deep Learning, is saying that the neural nets we currently use are comparable in complexity to the brain of a frog. Can you teach a frog how to drive a car better than a human? I don't think so. The science is just not there yet. Tesla should refocus its efforts in driver assist, make their experience more enjoyable and forgot about robot taxis.

No doubt the true believers will tell me Tesla’s AI is so much more advanced, and we already know DoJo is going to solve everything. Perhaps Tesla’s neural nets have the brain of a toad.

Mr Toad gave everyone a wild ride, so you might not be too short of the mark given phantom braking etc.

If Tesla announced a pause in its religious crusade to achieve some sort of automated driving beyond the crap we get today, that would risk the company being viewed as a mere purveyor of cars and batteries. Share price would shrink by another 80% to that of a normal car company, which is where it is heading once the market wakes up to the false promises.

 

[johnnycnote]

Tesla account for 16% of annual global sales of BEV. Down from over 20% two years ago, and as current inventory shows, has fallen further.

I don't understand what those numbers mean or where they came from

Tesla owns an approx. 65% market share of the EV market. It's down from the 75% share a couple of years ago and it will drop further as more EV manufacturers develop new products. But this is an expected result for any industry leader as their specific market matures

 

[CWT3LR]

Well guess how I feel when I bought model 3 with fsd then traded to model y also with fsd and now model x plaid with fsd with the same old ass cameras. I was an investor and a big fan. Made so many referrals. But now I feel deceived

 

[Jason71]

I don't understand what those numbers mean or where they came from

Tesla owns an approx. 65% market share of the EV market. It's down from the 75% share a couple of years ago and it will drop further as more EV manufacturers develop new products. But this is an expected result for any industry leader as their specific market matures

I assume you are talking about the US market?
If the fact that you are on the UK forum was not a bit of a hint or or the title of the thread "UK Centric". Then surely the fact that the person you quoted saying "global sales "should have been a giveaway that the comment was not related to the US market where Tesla may well have a 65% share,
But if you did see all that and genuinely think Tesla have a 65% share of the GLOBAL or even the UK market then please can I have some of what you're smoking?

 

[johnnycnote]

I assume you are talking about the US market?
If the fact that you are on the UK forum was not a bit of a hint or or the title of the thread "UK Centric". Then surely the fact that the person you quoted saying "global sales "should have been a giveaway that the comment was not related to the US market where Tesla may well have a 65% share,
But if you did see all that and genuinely think Tesla have a 65% share of the GLOBAL or even the UK market then please can I have some of what you're smoking?

Yes US market. My mistake. Tesla is 2nd at 15% and BYD leads with 19% in the global market. However, subtracting hybrid units from those numbers puts Tesla significantly in the global lead. And yes, if you're ever in the NYC area, I would def share what I'm smoking and drinking

 

[Zubinix]

Yes US market. My mistake. Tesla is 2nd at 15% and BYD leads with 19% in the global market. However, subtracting hybrid units from those numbers puts Tesla significantly in the global lead. And yes, if you're ever in the NYC area, I would def share what I'm smoking and drinking

View attachment 901436

So Tata Motors was the fastest growing EV manufacturer last year, or be it from a very very small base They have shown some interesting concept cars. I just hope they can get the manufacturing scale to produce a large number of EVs at a low enough cost to get India moving on reducing pollution caused by motor vehicles, which is a huge issue in their cities.

 

[CWT3LR]

Yes US market. My mistake. Tesla is 2nd at 15% and BYD leads with 19% in the global market. However, subtracting hybrid units from those numbers puts Tesla significantly in the global lead. And yes, if you're ever in the NYC area, I would def share what I'm smoking and drinking

View attachment 901436

VW & GM have as much market share as Tesla, but didn't really market electric cars until 2021.

When you factor in the skewed incentives for US car manufacturers in the US, not surprising that Tesla dominates. In the developed world, where taxation and subsidy schemes are largely manufacturer neutral, the picture is vastly different.

 

[johnnycnote]

So Tata Motors was the fastest growing EV manufacturer last year, or be it from a very very small base They have shown some interesting concept cars. I just hope they can get the manufacturing scale to produce a large number of EVs at a low enough cost to get India moving on reducing pollution caused by motor vehicles, which is a huge issue in their cities.

Those are pretty cool looking concepts, especially the Avinya

 

[Adopado]

VW & GM have as much market share as Tesla, but didn't really market electric cars until 2021.

Chevy Bolt (GM) predated the Model 3

Wikipedia quote:

"Sales of the 2017 Bolt began in California in December 2016, with nationwide US and international markets release in 2017.[7][8] The Bolt was the U.S. second best selling plug-in car in 2017. Global combined Bolt/Ampera-e family sales totaled 112,000 units by the end of 2020.

The Bolt was named the 2017 Motor Trend Car of the Year, the 2017 North American Car of the Year,[9] an Automobile magazine 2017 All Star, and was listed in Time magazine's Best 25 Inventions of 2016"

 

[CWT3LR]

Chevy Bolt (GM) predated the Model 3

Wikipedia quote:

"Sales of the 2017 Bolt began in California in December 2016, with nationwide US and international markets release in 2017.[7][8] The Bolt was the U.S. second best selling plug-in car in 2017. Global combined Bolt/Ampera-e family sales totaled 112,000 units by the end of 2020.

The Bolt was named the 2017 Motor Trend Car of the Year, the 2017 North American Car of the Year,[9] an Automobile magazine 2017 All Star, and was listed in Time magazine's Best 25 Inventions of 2016"

Like I said, didn't really market EVs until 2021.

 

[Adopado]

Like I said, didn't really market EVs until 2021.

Just keep saying it ... it may eventually become true ... but not yet!

 

[johnnycnote]

VW & GM have as much market share as Tesla, but didn't really market electric cars until 2021.

When you factor in the skewed incentives for US car manufacturers in the US, not surprising that Tesla dominates. In the developed world, where taxation and subsidy schemes are largely manufacturer neutral, the picture is vastly different.

Sounds like you're saying that the US is not part of the developed world. How dare you Sir!

 

[CWT3LR]

Sounds like you're saying that the US is not part of the developed world. How dare you Sir!

Well, the US used to be, up until about 2016. Global jury is still out on whether the moniker still holds. I mean, who eats bacon THAT crispy!

 

[Jason71]

Well, the US used to be, up until about 2016. Global jury is still out on whether the moniker still holds. I mean, who eats bacon THAT crispy!

How dare you! That is about the only thing I like about the US these days. Their bacon is great (oh and some of the cars are OK)

 

[CWT3LR]

How dare you! That is about the only thing I like about the US these days. Their bacon is great (oh and some of the cars are OK)

Back bacon. Thick cut. Crispy fat but moist flesh. Between a crusty roll, lashings of HP. Fight anyone who says that isn't the way the Good Lord intended piggies to be eaten.

 

[yessuz]

Back bacon. Thick cut. Crispy fat but moist flesh. Between a crusty roll, lashings of HP. Fight anyone who says that isn't the way the Good Lord intended piggies to be eaten.

Ditch HP but add runny egg and you are OK

 

[argon2018]

I

Of course FSD isn’t just about hardware. It’s about AI, Deep Learning and neural nets. Yoshua Bengio, one of the top worldwide researchers in Deep Learning, is saying that the neural nets we currently use are comparable in complexity to the brain of a frog. Can you teach a frog how to drive a car better than a human? I don't think so. The science is just not there yet. Tesla should refocus its efforts in driver assist, make their experience more enjoyable and forgot about robot taxis.

No doubt the true believers will tell me Tesla’s AI is so much more advanced, and we already know DoJo is going to solve everything. Perhaps Tesla’s neural nets have the brain of a toad.

agree, but 80 year old eye doesn’t see as well as a 20 year old. I just wonder why are they not putting these new cameras in production. It’s not like they were recently developed. I’m sure it was developed for at least 2-3 years. Bc they prob wanna finish what they can achieve with the current HW before start coding for the camera with radar.

Secondly, even then, what happens on a very foggy day? Without having a LiDAR or radar. Bc I’m pretty sure human eye can see much better than 1.2 camera or see equally. Perhaps southern cali would be the only place that will have fsd