I think it is interesting that Tesla would rather cut prices in the US than produce RHD cars to take up the slack in demand, although that would only provide temporary respite and a price cut for the S and X was expected.
Surprisingly the German/French price for a LR X or S is actually still less than the US price once you add VAT and import duty. Considering the US has now had two price cuts, it shows how good a deal the EU price started off as. The Plaid, however, is more expensive in Europe now.
I would expect probably a 10k cut in Europe, maybe less on the LRs (if I was just basing it off this, see below).
Current US pricing would suggest around 100k for a S LR and 120k for the Plaid in the UK. X prices would be 110k and 120k. These are still a little higher than pricing was in summer 21 when I ordered my X.
These prices still feel high to me, especially for the S. I present some other cars for comparison, I know you can argue whether or not different cars are truly comparable and other people may prefer different comps, it is just a framework to think about it.
I was trying to think what would seem like reasonable pricing versus the overall car market. A lot of cars have seen big price increases in the last couple of years. If you use a BMW 545xe PHEV as a comparable car to a Model S LR (I have not thought extensively about this) then you are looking at around 70-75k list (M Sport) and 65-70k after discount. The S still looks pretty expensive compared to this. For comparison a Model 3 LR is give or take around the same price as a BMW 330xe PHEV, a Y is cheaper than a X3 PHEV. This suggests that the Model S LR should be around 80k which is a lot closer to where it was before Tesla ramped up prices. The Plaid should maybe be around 100k.
Model X LR is harder to find an obvious comp for. The new Volvo EX90 at 96-100K seems similar. The X5 is a little smaller and not available with 7 seats as a PHEV. It would come in at around 85k. I would set the X at 90 and 110k considering this, 10k more than the S seems reasonable. It was only 5k at one point.
The car that is going to make a big difference to X pricing is the Kia EV9. I would guess that the top of the line model will come in at around £75-80k. The EX90 price was set based on the Model X price at the time and I think it is probably overpriced. The car that is outrageously priced in the UK is the EQS SUV. In most of the world the base EQS SUV is priced at around 2k more than the EQS saloon. In the UK the base EQS SUV is £24k more than the saloon. Now this is because they have made an expensive option pack compulsory in the UK, but it looks way out of line with every other market. I would have seriously considered one at the USA/EU price. Anecdotally the EQS saloon is not selling in the USA and available with discounts, having started off being sold at a big premium.
Considering all of this I have my Model X order. I am getting worried that they just don't see RHD as worthwhile, but surely we still get the new models. I am hopeful that there is another price cut before they come to the UK if they do come and we see a price at around 90k on an LR. I currently have a Plaid on order as the premium vs the LR is very small.
I have caved and placed an order for an EX90. The £500 is refundable so nothing to lose. I think it is also a bit overpriced.
I will likely also order an EV9 when it comes out and I would not pay £25k more for an X than the EV9, so it might be my next car unless Tesla cuts prices. What this backs up is the point people often make that the S and X are currently too expensive versus the 3 and Y. A 5 series does not cost twice what a 3 series costs or an X5 twice as much as an X3.
For the EV market in general, the number of people making or planning to make £100k saloons is crazy. Historically this market was very small. There is not big demand for large expensive less practical cars. Other than for limos, most people want a big SUV at this price point (look how Model 3 sales have fallen with availability of the Y). Historically this market was the 7 Series, S-Class, A8 and Panamera, then the S came along (Similar price different concept). We still have all these cars plus the Taycan, e-tron GT, i7, EQS, Lucid Air, Lotus 133, Polestar 5. The top end of the market will be enormously oversupplied. No wonder Lucid are struggling with demand.
I actually think as supply of cars eases up some of the prices that have been set recently will look way out of line. Mercedes seem particularly guilty with the EQE and pricing on their AMGs. You also have the BMW XM at 150k. Some of these cars will see crippling depreciation.
Surprisingly the German/French price for a LR X or S is actually still less than the US price once you add VAT and import duty. Considering the US has now had two price cuts, it shows how good a deal the EU price started off as. The Plaid, however, is more expensive in Europe now.
I would expect probably a 10k cut in Europe, maybe less on the LRs (if I was just basing it off this, see below).
Current US pricing would suggest around 100k for a S LR and 120k for the Plaid in the UK. X prices would be 110k and 120k. These are still a little higher than pricing was in summer 21 when I ordered my X.
These prices still feel high to me, especially for the S. I present some other cars for comparison, I know you can argue whether or not different cars are truly comparable and other people may prefer different comps, it is just a framework to think about it.
I was trying to think what would seem like reasonable pricing versus the overall car market. A lot of cars have seen big price increases in the last couple of years. If you use a BMW 545xe PHEV as a comparable car to a Model S LR (I have not thought extensively about this) then you are looking at around 70-75k list (M Sport) and 65-70k after discount. The S still looks pretty expensive compared to this. For comparison a Model 3 LR is give or take around the same price as a BMW 330xe PHEV, a Y is cheaper than a X3 PHEV. This suggests that the Model S LR should be around 80k which is a lot closer to where it was before Tesla ramped up prices. The Plaid should maybe be around 100k.
Model X LR is harder to find an obvious comp for. The new Volvo EX90 at 96-100K seems similar. The X5 is a little smaller and not available with 7 seats as a PHEV. It would come in at around 85k. I would set the X at 90 and 110k considering this, 10k more than the S seems reasonable. It was only 5k at one point.
The car that is going to make a big difference to X pricing is the Kia EV9. I would guess that the top of the line model will come in at around £75-80k. The EX90 price was set based on the Model X price at the time and I think it is probably overpriced. The car that is outrageously priced in the UK is the EQS SUV. In most of the world the base EQS SUV is priced at around 2k more than the EQS saloon. In the UK the base EQS SUV is £24k more than the saloon. Now this is because they have made an expensive option pack compulsory in the UK, but it looks way out of line with every other market. I would have seriously considered one at the USA/EU price. Anecdotally the EQS saloon is not selling in the USA and available with discounts, having started off being sold at a big premium.
Considering all of this I have my Model X order. I am getting worried that they just don't see RHD as worthwhile, but surely we still get the new models. I am hopeful that there is another price cut before they come to the UK if they do come and we see a price at around 90k on an LR. I currently have a Plaid on order as the premium vs the LR is very small.
I have caved and placed an order for an EX90. The £500 is refundable so nothing to lose. I think it is also a bit overpriced.
I will likely also order an EV9 when it comes out and I would not pay £25k more for an X than the EV9, so it might be my next car unless Tesla cuts prices. What this backs up is the point people often make that the S and X are currently too expensive versus the 3 and Y. A 5 series does not cost twice what a 3 series costs or an X5 twice as much as an X3.
For the EV market in general, the number of people making or planning to make £100k saloons is crazy. Historically this market was very small. There is not big demand for large expensive less practical cars. Other than for limos, most people want a big SUV at this price point (look how Model 3 sales have fallen with availability of the Y). Historically this market was the 7 Series, S-Class, A8 and Panamera, then the S came along (Similar price different concept). We still have all these cars plus the Taycan, e-tron GT, i7, EQS, Lucid Air, Lotus 133, Polestar 5. The top end of the market will be enormously oversupplied. No wonder Lucid are struggling with demand.
I actually think as supply of cars eases up some of the prices that have been set recently will look way out of line. Mercedes seem particularly guilty with the EQE and pricing on their AMGs. You also have the BMW XM at 150k. Some of these cars will see crippling depreciation.
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