Unhappy with FSD sales and pricing

[BeeGood]

FSD is now 10000? With 100 a month it would take more than 8 years for those who paid 10k to break even. I believe FSD will be more than 100 a month.

Maybe. But why would someone choose to subscribe to FSD if they know they’re going to pay the same (or close to it) as someone who bought it outright?

If I buy it today, a few years down the road I can sell a car with FSD. Cant do that if I just subscribe to it.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

FSD seems to have faded from the limelight. I kind of get the impression the plans of releasing the new beta FSD has been kind of cancelled or maybe put off for a couple more years. Elon hasn’t said squat about it. I don’t think I’ve even seen a new release video in the last month or two. I can’t see people paying a monthly subscription for a slightly better autopilot.

JMHO.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

10-15k for fsd that works is certainly feasible. 40k isn’t.

Umm, it's already $10K for FSD that's not even close to working.

My belief is it won't actually be $40k, but that FSD will switch to a subscription where when/if they achieve L4 or greater will likely cost somewhere in the $300 to $500 a month range.

This largely solves your concern that there won't be enough people willing to pay $40K for FSD by itself.
Sure not everyone can afford $400 to $500 a month for a private taxi service, but that's where small players will come in. Where people will buy a few cars and they'll share them on the Tesla fleet.

The advantage Tesla has is they have a bare bones sensor/computer cost so they can price it at whatever point fits the market. The downside is its so bare bones it might never achieve L3 let alone L4 or L5.

 

[MikeHolliday]

FSD seems to have faded from the limelight. I kind of get the impression the plans of releasing the new beta FSD has been kind of cancelled or maybe put off for a couple more years. Elon hasn’t said squat about it. I don’t think I’ve even seen a new release video in the last month or two. I can’t see people paying a monthly subscription for a slightly better autopilot.

JMHO.

Where have you been, this update to the Beta was a week ago...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Where have you been, this update to the Beta was a week ago...

Damn. Guess I gotta pay a little closer attention. But a couple of months ago there was a ton of threads on the go.

Anyway. Appreciate the find.

Cheers.

 

[MikeHolliday]

Believe what you may:
Elon Musk says Tesla's Full Self-Driving tech will have Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had a number of things to talk about during Wednesday's quarterly earnings call, but spent a lot of time discussing the company's Full Self-Driving system. According to Musk, the FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021.

Now, that's a really big claim, and it's hard to see how the system will go from its current beta state -- which isn't even reliably Level 3 autonomous -- to being "at least 100% safer than a human driver," according to the CEO. Musk also claims FSD will be capable of driving the car anywhere under any conditions with no need for human interaction. Tall order, indeed.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Believe what you may:
Elon Musk says Tesla's Full Self-Driving tech will have Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had a number of things to talk about during Wednesday's quarterly earnings call, but spent a lot of time discussing the company's Full Self-Driving system. According to Musk, the FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021.

Now, that's a really big claim, and it's hard to see how the system will go from its current beta state -- which isn't even reliably Level 3 autonomous -- to being "at least 100% safer than a human driver," according to the CEO. Musk also claims FSD will be capable of driving the car anywhere under any conditions with no need for human interaction. Tall order, indeed.

Total fiction.

JMHO.

 

[boonedocks]

Believe what you may:
Elon Musk says Tesla's Full Self-Driving tech will have Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021.

 

[5thgear]

Maybe. But why would someone choose to subscribe to FSD if they know they’re going to pay the same (or close to it) as someone who bought it outright?

If I buy it today, a few years down the road I can sell a car with FSD. Cant do that if I just subscribe to it.

For a lot of us, it all comes down to what value FSD offers. I lease one car and I own one car. Am I going to pay 20k for FSD? No freakin way. Especially with my leased car, which would add a net net cost of about 4k over the duration of the 3-year lease... a smidge over $100 per month. Unless I can carry the subscription with me to any car that I own or lease, and maybe even unsubscribe if I don’t use it, I’m not interested in paying serious money for a novelty like this.

 

[vinny84]

Believe what you may:
Elon Musk says Tesla's Full Self-Driving tech will have Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had a number of things to talk about during Wednesday's quarterly earnings call, but spent a lot of time discussing the company's Full Self-Driving system. According to Musk, the FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021.

Now, that's a really big claim, and it's hard to see how the system will go from its current beta state -- which isn't even reliably Level 3 autonomous -- to being "at least 100% safer than a human driver," according to the CEO. Musk also claims FSD will be capable of driving the car anywhere under any conditions with no need for human interaction. Tall order, indeed.

 

[MikeHolliday]

View attachment 637118

As far as I can read and understand the definition, my Model Y with FSD (Not the limited beta release) meets the Standards for Level 3 Autonomy -

Level 3 autonomy means the vehicle can take over all driving functions under certain circumstances. The less-complex highway environment (all vehicles moving in the same direction, no pedestrians, no complex intersections) is the most logical circumstance.

Over 90% of my driving on Rural Roads, 4 Lane Roads and Limited Excess Highways and as an degreed engineer I stand amazed at its ability. I drive 3 days a week 36 miles round trip to my daughters home in a rural county and even on some of the poorest roads with lane markings so faint that I generally cannot see the the vast majority of the time. Yet I can set Autopilot, it stays perfectly in its lane even when being pass by a car in the opposite direction. I have seen numerous Youtube Video (Check out Dirty Tesla) where even in snow covered dirt roads the new Beta FSD is able to drive the car. From what I have seen on numerous new FSD Beta video, it is operating on Level 4.

 

[Dan D.]

As far as I can read and understand the definition, my Model Y with FSD (Not the limited beta release) meets the Standards for Level 3 Autonomy -

Level 3 autonomy means the vehicle can take over all driving functions under certain circumstances. The less-complex highway environment (all vehicles moving in the same direction, no pedestrians, no complex intersections) is the most logical circumstance.

Over 90% of my driving on Rural Roads, 4 Lane Roads and Limited Excess Highways and as an degreed engineer I stand amazed at its ability. I drive 3 days a week 36 miles round trip to my daughters home in a rural county and even on some of the poorest roads with lane markings so faint that I generally cannot see the the vast majority of the time. Yet I can set Autopilot, it stays perfectly in its lane even when being pass by a car in the opposite direction. I have seen numerous Youtube Video (Check out Dirty Tesla) where even in snow covered dirt roads the new Beta FSD is able to drive the car. From what I have seen on numerous new FSD Beta video, it is operating on Level 4.

Your definition of Level 3 only lists one point thus missing out on the main issue which is that the driver does not need to be engaged for Level 3. Of course Tesla is still Level 2 where you have to be attentive and in control at all times. Thus it is not Level 3. In addition the evidence from other videos shows that no versions of any of Tesla's beta or non-beta software are safe enough to drive unattended. Level 3 has many safety and legal requirements that your car doesn't have. FSD Beta is also Level 2 not Level 4 though in some ways the beta software is more dangerous than a public Level 2 product would have to be.

I'm glad you're happy with the features. Stay attentive.

 

[MikeHolliday]

Level 3 does not let you drive inattentive, even Level 4 requires the driver to attentive and take over if necessary. That was not my definition, it was taken directly from the BMW website...

Autonomous Driving – five steps to the self-driving car

Level 3
With conditional automation systems, the car will be able to drive autonomously over long distances in certain traffic situations, such as on motorways. The driver, however, must be able to take over control within a few seconds, such as at road construction sites.

 

[boonedocks]

Level 3 does not let you drive inattentive, even Level 4 requires the driver to attentive and take over if necessary. That was not my definition, it was taken directly from the BMW website...

Autonomous Driving – five steps to the self-driving car

Level 3
With conditional automation systems, the car will be able to drive autonomously over long distances in certain traffic situations, such as on motorways. The driver, however, must be able to take over control within a few seconds, such as at road construction sites.

All of our Tesla's are NOT Level 3. Level 3 allows for eyes off the road...allowing the operator to txt or even watch a movie until the car alerts that it needs the drivers assistance...allowing for "hands off" the steering wheel and "eyes off the road" until that time. If you are indeed operating your Tesla in the belief that it is Level 3 then you are doing so at your own peril as well as those around you.

"Level 3 ("eyes off"): The driver can safely turn their attention away from the driving tasks, e.g. the driver can text or watch a movie. The vehicle will handle situations that call for an immediate response, like emergency braking. The driver must still be prepared to intervene within some limited time, specified by the manufacturer, when called upon by the vehicle to do so. You can think of the automated system as a co-driver that will alert you in an orderly fashion when it is your turn to drive."

 

[MikeHolliday]

All of our Tesla's are NOT Level 3. Level 3 allows for eyes off the road...allowing the operator to txt or even watch a movie until the car alerts that it needs the drivers assistance...allowing for "hands off" the steering wheel and "eyes off the road" until that time. If you are indeed operating your Tesla in the belief that it is Level 3 then you are doing so at your own peril as well as those around you.

"Level 3 ("eyes off"): The driver can safely turn their attention away from the driving tasks, e.g. the driver can text or watch a movie. The vehicle will handle situations that call for an immediate response, like emergency braking. The driver must still be prepared to intervene within some limited time, specified by the manufacturer, when called upon by the vehicle to do so. You can think of the automated system as a co-driver that will alert you in an orderly fashion when it is your turn to drive."

I agree that all Tesla vehicles are not at Level 3, but the new FSD Betas seem to be right there depending on whose definition you read.
Some definitions I have read would not allow you to do anything that would distract you from taking immediate control when necessary and other definitions of Level 3 are really what most others consider Level 4 autonomy.

When operating my Model Y in Self-Driving I find myself being able to be extra attentive. Having the car take over basic controls (Steering, Braking and Acceleration) allows me to be more attentive to the idiots around me and make evasive maneuvers if necessary.

 

[BeeGood]

I think it’s a little hazy with level 3 because the definitions I’ve read basically say “conditional autonomous driving without driver attention”

Well, the car is technically capable of doing that with the FSD beta. And you could find some conditions/time of day/stretch of interstate where NoA would drive the car reasonably safely every single time without you looking at the road or managing the driving.

Can it? Yes. Should it? Most people (including me) would say heck no. But it’s a little subjective, and eventually a legal question as well.

I guess what that means is that getting to level 3 is probably not going to be 100% in Tesla’s (or any manufacturer’s) control.

 

[Microterf]

When talking about Levels, it would be safe to assume one is talking about the SAE levels.

Level 0-2 are all about capability. Levels 3-5 are all about liability.

As long as a manufacturer says "You have to pay attention at all times," the system is at best, Level 2. PERIOD!!

"But it can drive me to walmart and park, and then drive me back home with zero interventions" - Doesn't matter, it's still a Level 2 system UNTIL they say you don't have to pay attention and be prepared to take over at any moment

 

[boonedocks]

I think it’s a little hazy with level 3 because the definitions I’ve read basically say “conditional autonomous driving without driver attention”

Well, the car is technically capable of doing that with the FSD beta. And you could find some conditions/time of day/stretch of interstate where NoA would drive the car reasonably safely every single time without you looking at the road or managing the driving.

Can it? Yes. Should it? Most people (including me) would say heck no. But it’s a little subjective, and eventually a legal question as well.

I guess what that means is that getting to level 3 is probably not going to be 100% in Tesla’s (or any manufacturer’s) control.

Unless you are using a "hands on steering wheel defeat product" you can operate your current Tesla without your hands on the steering wheel. The "nag" popping up every ~20 seconds is not what is referenced to in the Level 3 definition of autonomous driving.

 

[BeeGood]

Unless you are using a "hands on steering wheel defeat product" you can operate your current Tesla without your hands on the steering wheel. The "nag" popping up every ~20 seconds is not what is referenced to in the Level 3 definition of autonomous driving.


View attachment 637541

I’m not sure I would say that “hands on steering wheel” is necessarily the same as “driver attention”. You could just rest one hand on the steering wheel and randomly move it every 10 seconds while texting with the other and defeat the nag just the same.

But point taken. Tesla explicitly and implicitly (with the nag) says that the cars aren’t level 3, so they’re simply not.

 

[MikeHolliday]

I’m not sure I would say that “hands on steering wheel” is necessarily the same as “driver attention”. You could just rest one hand on the steering wheel and randomly move it every 10 seconds while texting with the other and defeat the nag just the same.

But point taken. Tesla explicitly and implicitly (with the nag) says that the cars aren’t level 3, so they’re simply not.

I agree with you, except FSD Betas...