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US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

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It's simplistic, and I realize that the future won't necessarily play out exactly this way, but I view these reports of alternative fuel market share from the California market like market share reports from the future of the car market. I cross check these with the alternative fuel market share reports from the Norwegian market.

And in this simplistic view of things, Tesla is the 30% market provider for that future car market. And I'm pretty sure that's share measured in units, while I find share measured in revenue to be more valuable - my guess is Tesla is more like the 50% revenue share provider in this market.

Now just to scale up from the California and Norwegian market, to the world market.
 
In the first two months of 2019, the model 3 order tracker had 20 US entries. Then in the barely 2 weeks after the SR announcement we have 63 lines. It's clear that there was a significant amount of demand set free with the $35K model. This ties well into Fremont switching back to US only production and no shipments leaving from Pier 80 for the next two weeks at least. It would make sense for Tesla to switch back to international production near the end of March, even if that leaves US backlogged demand for the SR unfullfilled until June.
 

Tesla is the 6th most popular brand in California!

Brand
....CA March YTD..................YTD % Share
  1. Toyota........75,730...........,............................16.3
  2. Honda........59,859........................................12.9
  3. Ford...........39,811.........................................8.6
  4. Chevrolet...34,833.........................................7.5
  5. Nissan........26,914........................................5.8
  6. Tesla...........20,491..................................4.4
  7. Subaru........17,803............................,...........3.8
  8. Merc Benz...17,776.......................................3.8
  9. Kia...............16.073......................................3.5
  10. Hyundai......14,790........................................3.2
  11. Lexus............14,597......................................3.1
  12. Jeep............14.545.......................................3.1
  13. BMW.............14,434.....................................3.1
  14. Volkswagen..11,447......................................2.5
  15. Mazda...........11,155......................................2.4
  16. Ram.............8,983........................................1.9
  17. Dodge..........8,964........................................1.9
  18. Audi..............8,803........................................1.9
  19. GMC............7.114 ........................................1.5
  20. Acura ...........5,306........................................1.1
  21. Land Rover ...4,808.......................................1.0
  22. Infiniti............4,588........................................1.0
  23. Porsche........3,668........................................0.8
  24. Mitsubishi.....3,176.........................................0.7
  25. Volvo.............2,750........................................0.6
  26. Chrysler........2,712........................................0.6
  27. Cadillac.........2,545........................................0.5
  28. Buick.............2,043.........................................0.4
  29. Mini................2,000........................................0.4
  30. Jaguar............1,745........................................0.4
  31. Lincoln...........1,439........................................0.3
  32. Alfa Romeo.....935..........................................0.2
  33. Fiat..................351..........................................0.1
  34. Genesis...........149..........................................0.0

Total............... 463,835..................................100


https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-19.pdf
Info Released today 5/20/2019
 
Tesla is the 6th most popular brand in California!

Brand
....CA March YTD..................YTD % Share
  1. Toyota........75,730...........,............................16.3
  2. Honda........59,859........................................12.9
  3. Ford...........39,811.........................................8.6
  4. Chevrolet...34,833.........................................7.5
  5. Nissan........26,914........................................5.8
  6. Tesla...........20,491..................................4.4
  7. Subaru........17,803............................,...........3.8
  8. Merc Benz...17,776.......................................3.8
  9. Kia...............16.073......................................3.5
  10. Hyundai......14,790........................................3.2
  11. Lexus............14,597......................................3.1
  12. Jeep............14.545.......................................3.1
  13. BMW.............14,434.....................................3.1
  14. Volkswagen..11,447......................................2.5
  15. Mazda...........11,155......................................2.4
  16. Ram.............8,983........................................1.9
  17. Dodge..........8,964........................................1.9
  18. Audi..............8,803........................................1.9
  19. GMC............7.114 ........................................1.5
  20. Acura ...........5,306........................................1.1
  21. Land Rover ...4,808.......................................1.0
  22. Infiniti............4,588........................................1.0
  23. Porsche........3,668........................................0.8
  24. Mitsubishi.....3,176.........................................0.7
  25. Volvo.............2,750........................................0.6
  26. Chrysler........2,712........................................0.6
  27. Cadillac.........2,545........................................0.5
  28. Buick.............2,043.........................................0.4
  29. Mini................2,000........................................0.4
  30. Jaguar............1,745........................................0.4
  31. Lincoln...........1,439........................................0.3
  32. Alfa Romeo.....935..........................................0.2
  33. Fiat..................351..........................................0.1
  34. Genesis...........149..........................................0.0

Total............... 463,835..................................100


https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-19.pdf
Info Released today 5/20/2019

Over 2/3rds of US Q1 Teslas were delivered in CA??? That's..... interesting.