US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

[Doggydogworld]

2021 US Vehicle Sales Figures By Brand

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

www.goodcarbadcar.net

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302k Tesla in 2021 looks low and 293k in 2020 is way too high. Total 2020 was 499k. Subtracting 138k China and 99k Europe leaves 262k for North America plus ROW. No number above 210k for US makes sense.

This year North America plus ROW is more like 450k. That should put US close to 350k and y/y something like +66%. We also know Fremont built more cars in 2021 and exported far fewer. That's completely inconsistent with 9k y/y delivery growth. I'd use Troy's numbers for Tesla and ignore these. Makes me wonder about their numbers for other brands, though Ford and Lincoln are within 1%.

 

[RobStark]

The Wall Street Journal had a lengthy article on the EV industry.

They site a firm called Motor Intelligence giving Tesla 72% US BEV share and selling 352.5k vehicles.

Electric-Vehicle Race Heats Up as Detroit Makes Its Move

GM, Ford and Chrysler-owner Stellantis are looking to close the gap versus startups with initiatives such as new battery-powered pickups and electric-van sales to Amazon.

www.wsj.com

 

[RobStark]

New Car Price Keeps Climbing, with Average Now at Almost $47,100

Reduced supply, increased demand: It all adds up to higher prices for the new-car-buying public.

www.caranddriver.com

 

[RobStark]

Honda Tempers ‘Out of Whack’ Expectations for EV Demand in U.S.

Honda Motor Co. expects to announce a decision soon on where it will manufacture electric vehicles for the U.S. market, but says questions remain about how much demand there is for battery-powered cars and trucks.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[RobStark]

Cumulative US EV Sales

Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out Tracker By Automaker | EVAdoption

evadoption.com

 

[wws]

Cumulative US EV Sales...

Shouldn't Volkswagon, Audi, and Porsche be combined into a VAG number?

 

[RobStark]

Shouldn't Volkswagon, Audi, and Porsche be combined into a VAG number?

I don't know for a fact but it may be that each brand has a distinct Federal tax ID number giving them 200k Federal credits each. Therefore listing there sales totals separately.

I know that is the case with Volvo and Polestar. Even though they have Lucid and Rivian listed there without listing Polestar's handful of sales.

Porsche and Audi stock trade independently of VW stock and from each other.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Beats BMW In 2021 US Luxury Car Sales: Report

Elon Musk continues to insist that Tesla's competition isn't other EVs, but rather, gas-powered cars. Tesla is achieving its mission by outselling top rivals.

insideevs.com

 

[RobStark]

2021 California Auto Registrations

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-21.pdf

 

[RobStark]

California 2021 Registrations

Tesla passes Renault-Nissan Alliance( Nissan Brand+Infiniti+Mitsubishi)!!!

Brand..................CA 2021 YTD.................................... % Share

1. Toyota........335,587 ...........,..........................18.1
2. Honda........201,196.........................................10.8
3. Ford...........136,486..........................................7.9
4. Chevrolet...123,006..........................................6.6
5. Tesla.........121,080......................................6.5
6. Nissan........95,650..........................................5.2
7. KIA.............78,715............................................4.2
8. Hyundai......71,271...........................................3.8
9. Merc Benz..70,453..........................................3.8
10. Subaru......66,700............................................3.6
11. BMW..........65,310............................................3.5
12. Lexus..........57,005..........................................3.1
13. Jeep............56,215..........................................3.0
14. RAM.............49,343.........................................2.7
15. Mazda..........45,286.........................................2.4
16. Volkswagen..44,471........................................2.4
17. Audi..............37,524.........................................2.0
18. GMC.............32,879..........................................1.8
19. Dodge..........23,108.........................................1.2
20. Acura ...........18,455.........................................1.0
21. Porsche........17,130...........................................0.9
22. Land Rover ..16,167.........................................0.9
23. Volvo.............14,547..........................................0.8
24. Chrysler........10,760..........................................0.6
25. Cadillac.........10,295..........................................0.6
26. Infiniti............7,813..........................................0.4
27. Buick.............6,816..........................................0.4
28. Mitsubishi.....6,301..........................................0.3
29. Genesis.........5,952.........................................0.3
30. Mini...............5,294.........................................0.3
31. Lincoln..........4,853..........................................0.3
32. Alfa Romeo....3,159........................................0.2
33. Jaguar...........2,755.........................................0.1
34. FIAT................136...........................................0
35. Other..............3,381.........................................0.2
    
    
    Total...........................1,856,391................................100
    
    https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-21.pdf

Genesis move up 2 spots. Other than that brand positioning stayed the same vs last quarter.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

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If Kia and Hyundai can do that well with their ICE vehicles, then their EV's are worth a second look (for my friends and family who can't wait a year for a Tesla).

 

[Doggydogworld]

View attachment 767168

That last chart is weird. 475 different BEV models available in the US plus another 450+ HEVs and almost 300 PHEVs? Does every different wheel size and color count as a different model?

 

[RobStark]

That last chart is weird. 475 different BEV models available in the US plus another 450+ HEVs and almost 300 PHEVs? Does every different wheel size and color count as a different model?

I think it is every EPA certified variant.

Some OEMs certify every battery, motor, wheel and equipment (because different weights) combination.

Some certify each major variant. Choosing the worse efficiency model and give each sub variant the same efficiency/mileage number. You get in trouble with EPA and/or Courts if you certify it has worse efficiency that advertised. Not if it has better efficiency than advertised.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

BEV registrations in the U.S. - January 2022

• Tesla Model Y - 18,549 (36.8% of all BEVs)
• Tesla Model 3 - 13,604 (27% of all BEVs)
• Tesla Model S - 3,903
• Ford Mustang Mach-E - 2,781
• Nissan LEAF - 1,479
• Hyundai Ioniq 5 - 1,253
• Volkswagen ID.4 - 1,153
• Kia Niro EV - 1,146
• Tesla Model X - 1,106
• Porsche Taycan (all versions) - 972
• other - 4,438
• Total - 50,384 (up 62% from 31,174) and 4.3% share (up from 2.3%)
  including 37,162 Tesla (73.8% of the total) and 13,222 non-Tesla

US: Three Tesla Models On Top Of BEV Sales Chart In January 2022

The all-electric cars start the year 2022 in the US with significant year-over-year sales growth, although the segment remains dominated by one company.

insideevs.com

 

[RobStark]

What's the Matter with Alaska?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

What's the Matter with Alaska?


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The Leaf is cheap and has enough range to reach the next town. I imagine inter-state road trips aren't a big priority for their BEV's and the cooler weather is pretty ideal for preserving the Leaf's battery health.

Edit: Washington state is a very big Nissan Leaf market, so whatever worked for them probably applies to AK as well.