US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

[mikevbf]

I tell you there is no demand, see

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

June 2019 YTD Tesla just a tiny smidgen under 1% US Market Share.

U.S. Auto Sales Figures by Brand

 

[RobStark]

 

[NannerAirCraft]

In June Tesla Increased Its Share In The U.S. Plug-In Market To 68%

Looking at the rest of the charts in the article it seems like the Model X is holding up well compared to the slump of the Model S compared to recent years sales.

 

[neroden]

My modeling was a new steady state of 80k/year S+X globally; I think this works. Half of S/X sales appear to be US. The S/X split is now tilted substantially towards the X. One of my models is showing 88k/year S+X, though. We probably won't get back to 100k/year because of the S decline; that's OK.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: USA June 2019

 

[RobStark]

Canada's Tesla numbers used to be a rounding error but now they becoming significant. Canada's numbers don't belong in the European thread and they get lost in the general thread so I will start posting them here.

As for the ugly duckling of the Tesla range, the Model X, it continues far from the class best sellers (for reference, the BMW X5 has 3.391 registrations this year, three times as much as the Tesla), but nevertheless, it has seen its sales grow 17% YoY, so Tesla's Sports-CUV is on the right path.

EV Sales: Canada June 2019

 

[replicant]

View attachment 427261

View attachment 427262


EV Sales: USA June 2019

I'm really surprised Tesla sold so few S compared to Mercedes E/Cs and BMW 5s. I understand some S potential customers were waiting for a refresh or want for a 3, but I didn't expect some many people choosing the BMW / Mercedes now that Tesla is popular across the US

Any explanation?

 

[RobStark]

I'm really surprised Tesla sold so few S compared to Mercedes E/Cs and BMW 5s. I understand some S potential customers were waiting for a refresh or want for a 3, but I didn't expect some many people choosing the BMW / Mercedes now that Tesla is popular across the US

Any explanation?

In price Tesla Model S competes with 6/7 Series and CLS/S Class. Model S now starts at $80k in the US.

Most of these cars are purchased by people over 55 and many won't consider a BEV.

For many people in this car class, this price means luxury and luxury means leather seats. Not polyurethane seats. Expect a further drip once Porsche Taycan is released. If Tesla refuses to use leather again they should look at other natural premium materials. Belgian linen?

Sales could expand in areas where Tesla is prohibited from opening a store once that legal hurdle is overcomed or where Tesla brand awareness is low but increases due to Model 3/Y.

 

[canoemore]

This NYTimes article offers more reporting on the trends that have been sporadically in the news lately about falling auto sales and high dealer inventories. Interestingly their projections show plateauing SUV sales and declining truck sales going forward. Not great news for those OEMs that may be depending on profits from those models to fund the switch to EVs.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Tesla Model 3, S & X Sales In U.S. In July 2019

13,450 for the first month of the quarter vs 10,050 in Q2. Demand very strong considering the loss of another half of the tax credit. Model S&X are also up compared to April.
Total Sales of 15,650 vs 11,925 in April. Obviously these are all estimates by insideevs but they have always been the most accurate.

 

[dc_h]

Tesla Model 3, S & X Sales In U.S. In July 2019

13,450 for the first month of the quarter vs 10,050 in Q2. Demand very strong considering the loss of another half of the tax credit. Model S&X are also up compared to April.
Total Sales of 15,650 vs 11,925 in April. Obviously these are all estimates by insideevs but they have always been the most accurate.

Considering much of the USA had basically no inventory the first half of the month, these are great numbers. The Chicago area now shows 12 Model 3's in stock, up from I think 3 about 10 days ago. The S has 8 in stock and the X has 10. I'd guess August sales will be back up closer to 20,000. September will likely be a big push again.
Hopefully when the Shanghai plant comes online in Q4 the quarterly push will be less important. It seems the quarter end push is less dramatic, but definitely still unwinding.

 

[RobStark]

 

[dc_h]

Do you have a link for those charts, or did you take their data and credit them? I like the first chart especially for showing Tesla's ridiculous lead.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Do you have a link for those charts, or did you take their data and credit them? I like the first chart especially for showing Tesla's ridiculous lead.

They're from InsideEVs.

US Plug-In Electric Car Sales Charted: July 2019

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is the 6th most popular brand in California!

Brand....CA June YTD..................YTD % Share

1. Toyota........158,351 ...........,............................16.7
2. Honda........120,749........................................12.7
3. Ford...........86,315.........................................9.1
4. Chevrolet...69,325........................................7.3
5. Nissan........52,927........................................5.6
6. Tesla...........40,085......................................4.2
7. Subaru........37,477........................................4.0
8. Merc Benz...36,848.......................................3.9
9. BMW.............32,540.....................................3.4
   
10. Kia...............32,488......................................3.4
11. Hyundai......30,556........................................3.2
12. Jeep............30,334.......................................3.2
    
13. Lexus............29,438......................................3.1
14. Volkswagen..23,802......................................2.5
15. Mazda...........21,037......................................2.2
16. Ram.............19,557........................................2.1
17. Audi..............18,367........................................1.9
    
18. Dodge..........18,266........................................1.9
19. GMC............15,409 ........................................1.6
20. Acura ...........10,382........................................1.1
21. Land Rover ...8,930.......................................0.9
22. Infiniti............7,921........................................0.8
23. Porsche........6,561........................................0.7
24. Volvo.............5,889........................................0.6
25. Cadillac.........5,314........................................0.6
    
26. Chrysler........5,243........................................0.6
27. Mitsubishi.....4,852.........................................0.5
    
28. Buick.............3,892.........................................0.4
29. Mini................3,695........................................0.4
30. Jaguar............3,003........................................0.3
31. Lincoln...........2.911........................................0.3
32. Alfa Romeo.....1,819..........................................0.2
33. Genesis...........797..........................................0.1
    
34. Fiat..................709..........................................0.1

Total...............948,563 ..................................100

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-19.pdf
Info Released today 8/15/2019

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Incredible the demand Tesla still has in california for all 3 models. Looking forward to the H2 numbers since seasonally the second half is much stronger in sales.