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VW Fallout: $2.0 Billion for ZEV Infrastructure Buildout

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I think CARB gets credit for playing hardball with VW and forcing an innovative (and expensive) settlement to promote EVs. They could have just rolled over and buried the cheat.
I agree here. I'm a fierce hater of the damage done by CARB and VW, but this is true.
I have experienced similar frustration in Massachusetts with the MOR-EV program. The "optics" problems of assisting "expensive" EVs (namely, Teslas) that are purchased by "rich" people. The desire to fund more EVs in underprivileged areas... people who can't afford to waste time and money on a still-nascent technology and its infrastructure. Basically, they should all have Leafs and other limited EVs rather than Teslas that can actually one-for-one replace an ICE (although admittedly not for ALL use cases).
That's outdated now that the Bolt is available. And soon, the Tesla Model 3 will join it. But, I look at it like this: even if the initial stations are crappy, the buildouts will continue past the initial passes.

In a way, the Politically Correct groups are once again screwing the low income people, by giving them something they don't want, and making certain that their area is already covered with the worst possible version (the first version) of everything available for that area, such that the poorest people will have to wait the very longest for the regular high quality chargers of the next decade to replace the already installed crappy versions which have to earn their capital investments before being upgraded.
 
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In a way, the Politically Correct groups are once again screwing the low income people, by giving them something they don't want, and making certain that their area is already covered with the worst possible version (the first version) of everything available for that area, such that the poorest people will have to wait the very longest for the regular high quality chargers of the next decade to replace the already installed crappy versions which have to earn their capital investments before being upgraded.
I would argue that speeding EV adoption, and the ubiquitous decentralized renewable energy that comes along with them, is the single greatest lever we have to reverse the income and wealth inequality that's been keeping people poor since the 70's.

This isn't just a superior product we're wedging into the marketplace to offset CO2 levels, it's going to change the socio-economic dynamic of our entire civilization. If that means a few hundred million bucks end up "wasted" on sedans for rich folk, then so be it. We're clearly on a more than decent path that will get us to a flatter economic landscape. We're not China, we needed a path that fit our capitalist system.

We may soon find ourselves with a much more equitable revenue-neutral carbon tax to fund us the rest of the way. We shall see.
 
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Wow. Some serious overthinking of how to solve the problem of automotive electrification adoption.

Used electric cars are down to $5000.

However, regardless of the pricing, recharging is something all electric cars require. You put chargers based on the car's needs, not based on income levels. Why? Because it's not the driver that need L2 or DCFC, it's the car.

But increasing the cost of gasoline isn't going to have the effect on the lower and middle-lower classes EV adoption. You are reducing their weekly income, which makes it harder, not easier, to acquire an EV.
 
Under a rational renewable energy program funded by a neutral carbon tax, poor folks could be paying half their current electricity cost. That should spark some EV adoption and more than offset the greater gas cost.

Funnel tax revenues into <10kW residential renewable energy tax credits. Create a federal payback minimum for energy fed to the grid and give homeowners grid priority. Boom....you got poor people paying nearly nothing for electricity and gas is a tad more expensive for all of us. And conservation would go through the roof.

Not a bad political platform.
 
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But increasing the cost of gasoline isn't going to have the effect on the lower and middle-lower classes EV adoption. You are reducing their weekly income, which makes it harder, not easier, to acquire an EV.

That's why the most popular carbon tax is revenue neutral. Lower and middle-lower classes would for example pay $1k more per year for gas and get a $1200 credit; It's the upper-middle and middle classes that burn the most fools fuel per capita. Making it means based would be even more effective. Distribute the credit to the low income levels and phase it out at higher incomes. Help lower income people break their fools fuel addiction. Get Cleaner air. Lower energy costs long term. Everyone wins.
 
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That's why the most popular carbon tax is revenue neutral. Lower and middle-lower classes would for example pay $1k more per year for gas and get a $1200 credit; It's the upper-middle and middle classes that burn the most fools fuel per capita. Making it means based would be even more effective. Distribute the credit to the low income levels and phase it out at higher incomes. Help lower income people break their fools fuel addiction. Get Cleaner air. Lower energy costs long term. Everyone wins.
This makes perfect sense.
Unfortunately, it goes against the Republican mandate to increase upper class income (and screw the environment).
 
I'm amazed that this link hasn't showed up yet, but VW apparently released their plan on Friday for the rollout:

VW to build a ‘nationwide 150 kW+ fast charging network’ for electric vehicles as part of Dieselgate settlement

I'm still skimming through it, but one item of immediate interest so far: All DCFC in the first period will have both CCS and CHAdeMO connectors.

Sites will be, on average, about 66 miles apart, with no more than 120 miles between stations, meaning many shorter range ZEVs available today will be able to use this network.
 
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I don't have data but my WAG guess is upper and middle class is more likely to have at least one auto.
Absolutely. It is difficult to spend a lot of money in our economy without creating a correspondingly large carbon footprint. All of the accoutrements of wealth, i.e., air travel, multiple houses, limousines, yachts, private aircraft, etc., come with an expanded carbon footprint, and there are relatively few individuals who use their wealth exclusively to consume low carbon products. There is, in general terms, a certain percentage of expenditures which resolves into GHG emissions such that those with greater expenditures will, on average, have greater GHG emissions.
 
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I'm amazed that this link hasn't showed up yet, but VW apparently released their plan on Friday for the rollout:

VW to build a ‘nationwide 150 kW+ fast charging network’ for electric vehicles as part of Dieselgate settlement

I'm still skimming through it, but one item of immediate interest so far: All DCFC in the first period will have both CCS and CHAdeMO connectors.
My own article was published today at:
VW Reveals Nationwide EV Charging Plans - HybridCars.com

Although the scale of this general effort has been known since last summer the message still hasn't gotten through very well. I still frequently see discussions on auto forums and Facebook groups where people ask who's going to build fast charging for non-Tesla cars or who assert that it will be many many years before a coherent nationwide highway network is developed.

VW's buildout schedule roughly matches the pace and scope of the first 2-3 years of the Tesla Supercharger effort in the US.
 
That's why the most popular carbon tax is revenue neutral. Lower and middle-lower classes would for example pay $1k more per year for gas and get a $1200 credit; It's the upper-middle and middle classes that burn the most fools fuel per capita. Making it means based would be even more effective. Distribute the credit to the low income levels and phase it out at higher incomes. Help lower income people break their fools fuel addiction. Get Cleaner air. Lower energy costs long term. Everyone wins.

Forgive me for chiming in; anyone who has been looking at a couple of other threads on TMC knows that I'm involved in supporting my wife's activities re revenue neutral carbon pricing.

If you're looking to help at the State level, please take a peek at ClimateXChange.org; one of its activities is coordinating a set of activities pushing for revenue neutral carbon pricing at the state level. The national conversation is... um... difficult. Progress can be made at the state level. CXC is particular focused on Massachusetts, because that's where it got its start.

Thanks,
Alan

Disclaimers:
(1) My wife co-founded Climate XChange in 2012 (first named Committee for a Green Economy, re-named to Environmental Tax Reform-MA, and finally to Climate XChange). CXC's mission is education and advocacy for revenue-neutral carbon pricing legislation in Massachusetts.
(2) My wife also sits on the board of Citizens Climate Lobby, a national carbon pricing nonprofit with about 50,000 members.
(3) I am a member of Climate XChange and engage in activities intended to enhance awareness of the issue, relevant pending legislation in MA, some of the people involved, and CXC; and also to raise funds.
 
I agree here. I'm a fierce hater of the damage done by CARB and VW, but this is true.

@Ulmo, I apologize if we've tread this ground before, but I have forgotten: what is the damage you perceive done by CARB?

That's outdated now that the Bolt is available. And soon, the Tesla Model 3 will join it. But, I look at it like this: even if the initial stations are crappy, the buildouts will continue past the initial passes.

In a way, the Politically Correct groups are once again screwing the low income people, by giving them something they don't want, and making certain that their area is already covered with the worst possible version (the first version) of everything available for that area, such that the poorest people will have to wait the very longest for the regular high quality chargers of the next decade to replace the already installed crappy versions which have to earn their capital investments before being upgraded.

While I probably wouldn't spend much time arguing over who is Politically Correct or not, you might be surprised to learn that I wholeheartedly agree with you. While @McRat makes an interesting point that it is the car that needs the charger, not the owner who may have a low income, I think it's very hard to make the argument yet for a low income person to own an EV. It is my belief -- without data, without proof -- that most people operating on a low income are relying on much older, inexpensive cars. Cars that can take them wherever they want to go, whenever they want to go, with a very familiar fueling infrastructure. Also, a very familiar and potentially very inexpensive repair infrastructure! EVs may well require less repair, but when they do require attention, it's always at the dealer. You can't put one up on blocks, dig into its infrastructure, run out to the auto parts store, and take care of it all yourself (or via a neighbor, friend, local mechanic).

I think it's like pushing on a wet noodle to put EVs into the hands of people who can't afford to own and operate them, and who almost certainly don't have a spare Prius or gas-guzzler lying around when the EV doesn't fit their use case.

The thing that made Model S so great was that it could handle a *large* fraction of the typical automobile use cases. So for someone like me -- in fact, for many people! -- a Model S could completely replace an ICE. And us early adopters had the patience, time and money to deal with range issues, repair issues, whatever. People have a hard time understanding that Model S was expensive but practical in a way that other EVs were and in most cases still are not.

Model 3 will change the economic equation. Add three years to get to seriously cheaper used Model 3s. *Those* are the cars that you can start feeling good about selling to lower-income people. THEN you need a program to help them solve home charging. THEN other chargers make sense. Other FAST, modern chargers, and not slow crap.

I have had this fight before with people who come from the environmental justice / social justice angle. The worst is when we sacrifice the good on the altar of the perfect. Sorry, we are just not yet at the point that the technology and the economics makes sense for widespread deployment at low income levels!

Alan
 
Are there any specifics from VW in terms of the number of fast-charge stalls per site? And the incentive for the company to provide long-term service and support? With Tesla running the chargers we know they have an incentive to maintain uptime, as well as real-time status on availability. With this shell company, who we can expect are not aiming to run the chargers profitably, it's hard to imagine that they will be able to provide the same level of service. If it's a bunch of 4-stall charging sites, with slower-charging cars using the spots for longer times, I'd imagine planning a road-trip based on them would be a risky proposition at best.
 
Are there any specifics from VW in terms of the number of fast-charge stalls per site? And the incentive for the company to provide long-term service and support? With Tesla running the chargers we know they have an incentive to maintain uptime, as well as real-time status on availability. With this shell company, who we can expect are not aiming to run the chargers profitably, it's hard to imagine that they will be able to provide the same level of service. If it's a bunch of 4-stall charging sites, with slower-charging cars using the spots for longer times, I'd imagine planning a road-trip based on them would be a risky proposition at best.
VW is very much mimicking Tesla's initial Supercharger rollout. The first 2-3 years of installation will see sites with between 4 to 10 stalls with an average of 5 stalls. The sites will have oversized transformers and grid connections so the early sites can be easily scaled up over time. When more cars are on the road in 3-4 years I expect that, like Tesla, their newer sites will start off with more stalls.

In other words, the first couple of years of the Tesla Supercharger buildout typically had 4-6 stalls at each site as they optimized for quickly expanding the total number of sites but as the network matured and more cars were in driver hands their newly added sites now tend to have 8 stalls or more.

VW is free to operate Electrify America for profit and may well try to do that in the long run. This ZEV Initiative settlement runs for 10 years and expenses for realtime data monitoring and site maintenance are covered. VW has an incentive to keep the system well-maintained since they need it as a checklist item when competing for BEV customers against Tesla.
 
The other incentive for keeping the system well maintained is that (at least in California) there will be an 800 phone number on each station to call and report charging problems. And there will be a live operator available 24/7 to field those calls. There are also penalties associated with charging stations not be in working condition, as shown here:

settle%201_zps1ga8wicu.jpg


settle%202_zpsors7968j.jpg
 
The Interactive map has some serious problems.
Find Us | Tesla
Just clicked a few of the grey (upcoming) stations and the first one was an extra in Roseville, Ca (needed)... nice except that it gave its location as Roseville, Michigan.
Second click was on Truckee, CA which is the location of an existing station... says it's coming in by the end of 2017. The existing station isn't shown.
The existing Supercharger at the Atlantis in Reno isn't shown on the map but it does show a new "coming" station near I80.
Same with the existing station in Vacaville... it isn't shown on the map but a "new" station is coming this year.
New stations are planned on I80 across the large gap in Wyoming... hope they are real.
 
The Interactive map has some serious problems.
Find Us | Tesla
Just clicked a few of the grey (upcoming) stations and the first one was an extra in Roseville, Ca (needed)... nice except that it gave its location as Roseville, Michigan.
Second click was on Truckee, CA which is the location of an existing station... says it's coming in by the end of 2017. The existing station isn't shown.
The existing Supercharger at the Atlantis in Reno isn't shown on the map but it does show a new "coming" station near I80.
Same with the existing station in Vacaville... it isn't shown on the map but a "new" station is coming this year.
New stations are planned on I80 across the large gap in Wyoming... hope they are real.

I think we've been to this rodeo before. Tesla has been working its tuchis off to spread Superchargers. They set/advertise a beyond-ambitious set of SC targets, and then try to fill in as many as they can. Permit problems and other exigent issues inevitably force deviations between planned and actual.

Which leads me to wonder: is VW likely to prove way better at the whole permitting / installation process than Tesla? Or able to match Tesla's ability? Or playing catch up even on deployment rate for the next couple of years? When I think about it in the light of absolutely no facts whatsoever, it seems to me that VW is actually going to wind up playing catch up. Sure, I bet VW has staff able to handle permitting... but probably focused on VW corporate operations. Dealerships likely handle all the local permitting and building. So VW may actually be in the position of having to staff up and build a new operation for siting and building out their charging network. When we complain that Tesla doesn't match their own projections for SC buildouts, we may find that Tesla will nevertheless outperform VW's nascent effort. Maybe by a substantial margin.

Alan