Website wait times for delivery change

[Hogfighter]

It's still too soon to do a Model S refresh. They aren't going to risk having issues with the X ramp by adding complexity with changing the S. It will be interesting, however, with how they announce the refresh, when it does come. Hopefully they learned some valuable lessons from the 'D' unveiling.

And demand isn't static, so a graph showing the historical wait times isn't as helpful as it would seem. As Elon has stated, there are numerous levers they can pull to increase demand. We've seen one with the referral program. We can be assured, however, that there is sufficient demand for 50k Model S's per year without pulling any of the other levers (advertising, for one).

 

[DaveT]

It's still too soon to do a Model S refresh. They aren't going to risk having issues with the X ramp by adding complexity with changing the S. It will be interesting, however, with how they announce the refresh, when it does come. Hopefully they learned some valuable lessons from the 'D' unveiling.

Actually doing a Model S refresh could be for the sake of avoiding complexity. With the Model X we know that it will have a new nose cone, new headlights, new door interior with storage space, etc (from Model X mule sightings). So if they don't do a Model S refresh soon then they'll be producing two types of nose cones, two completely different doors, two different headlights, etc. Of course they could do this since refreshing Model S parts could add some complexity in the short-run but it avoids complexity in the long-run. They're going to have to do a Model S refresh to match the Model X design cues sooner or later. My guess is that it's sooner than most think. And this is the major reason why Tesla is revealing the Model X so late into Q3 ( it wants to hide the design differences from Model S to avoid speculation about a Model S refresh which would hurt Q3 delivery numbers).

 

[pGo]

In the very short term, isn't that a trouble for production? Both lines will rely on newer components when they need 17K+ cars to deliver in Q4?

 

[Vger]

I suspect the X is part of the reason. X builds will be taking some of the shared capacity.

I agree. I am sure demand is fine, especially in Europe, but pushing out S's into Q4 could be a matter of making room to get the X production ramped ASAP. They have got to get X's reserved years ago out the door before people start reconsidering. Even though they will really only deliver 10 or 20 Founder's X's this Q, they have to get the production pipeline filled to deliver many many more in October.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Meanwhile delivery times in Europe get pushed out. Ordering now gets you a date in 2016.

Partial quote form the EU Market thread. Can anyone confirm this?

 

[pGo]

Partial quote form the EU Market thread. Can anyone confirm this?

I checked Norwegian and German Tesla sites and all configurations are listed to be delivered in December.

 

[vgrinshpun]

My last table update was back on 8/16/2015. Although I kept the data on the changes in estimated delivery times, I did not update the tables. Below are the snapshots of the catch-up on the updated tables:

- - - Updated - - -

- - - Updated - - -

The latest update (as of yesterday) included changes in estimated delivery time for

• NA (Late October --> November for 70, October __> Late October for other models)
• China (November --> Late November for all models)

- - - Updated - - -

I am obviously having a problem with the proper sequence of placing the images - pm me if you got an idea how to fix this (i.e. how to change the sequence in which attached images appear in the post)

 

[vgrinshpun]

There was another update to the NA delivery time estimates: 70 changed from November to late November, while all other models - from late October to November.

 

[Hogfighter]

There was another update to the NA delivery time estimates: 70 changed from November to late November, while all other models - from late October to November.

Wow....2 month wait time for NA. Looks like the referral program is working. By November, we should have more clarity as to the X ramp-up. No Osborne effect showing up yet.

 

[pGo]

NA delivery time changed:
70 - Late November to December
Everything else moved from November to Late November.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Below was just posted in the delivery tracking thread in the S forums. From our history in this thread, wait times were changed to October on 8/26. This is a full two weeks after that and an expected September delivery. User e-FTW does list their location as San Fran, but this should be a positive sign in terms of Q3 guidance, right? Anyone have any thoughts?

Order: 9/8
Confirmed: 9/15
Production queue: 9/16
Entered Production: 9/18
Production complete: 9/24
Estimated delivery: September 25, 2015 - October 2, 2015

If I were in town, I could pick it up tomorrow. That would be 10 days after order confirmation!!
But am out of town, and will pick it up on Sunday 9/27. woot

 

[RationalOptimist]

Below was just posted in the delivery tracking thread in the S forums. From our history in this thread, wait times were changed to October on 8/26. This is a full two weeks after that and an expected September delivery. User e-FTW does list their location as San Fran, but this should be a positive sign in terms of Q3 guidance, right? Anyone have any thoughts?

How is that a positive?

 

[EnergyMax]

How is that a positive?

Tesla is placing a much higher priority on local delivery in order to ace Q3 numbers.

 

[Crowded Mind]

How is that a positive?

Due to delivering before the estimate at the time of order, it may imply that Tesla is ahead of schedule and therefore would beat their estimated guidance. Do you see it another way? Of course this is just one data point so it isn't possible to draw a conclusion from only this information.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This is a catch-up post - the estimated delivery times in NA changed on 09-21, while chnage in Hong Kong happened on 9-26:

• estimated delivery time in NA for 70 changed from Late November to December, all other models - from November to late November. This change was only 6 days after the previous change.
• estimated delivery time for Hong Kong for 70 changed from January to late January
• estimated delivery time for Denmark was updated to December some time after the previous update. This is most likely just a correction to the previous error

 

[pGo]

Damn it. Where's the problem.

US deliveries for 70 moved to late December.
Non-70s moved to December.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Damn it. Where's the problem.

US deliveries for 70 moved to late December.
Non-70s moved to December.

Seems like a really good sign, especially if production ramp is going smoothly. Otherwise, it means really bad things for production, but that seems unlikely to me.

 

[uselesslogin]

Looking in the order tracker at US orders there are at best 3,000 VINs between the first Late October order and the first Late November order. It looks more like they are blocking out a few weeks hopefully for end-of-year European orders. They may want to be able to deliver as many cars to Denmark as possible in case the incentive goes away. At least I hope it is that as opposed to shutting down the factory for 2 weeks.

 

[svp]

I am thinking this points to potentially faster ramp of Model X production than people think (positive). Or some other kind of impact of Model X launch on Model S production (negative)

 

[svp]

On the other hand, first time a 100K+ VIN appeared was around Aug/6 and we now have someone reporting 110727 on Oct/1, so in exactly 8 weeks we have over 10K VINs. Either they started skipping VINs much more than before, or the order rate has really accelerated (90K+ VIN first reported assigned mid/May, so more like 12 weeks to get from 90K to 100K).