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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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This is catch up post - there were several estimated wait time updates posted last Wednesday:
An interesting observation is that wait time estimates bottomed out in July and are on a steady rise ever since. This is especially pronounced for NA: the estimated wait times bottomed out at around 4 weeks, then steadily grew and now stand at 9 weeks. Barring abrupt slowdown in production (very unlikely) it is most likely an indication of the pick up in the incoming orders for MS. Elon even mentioned it in the recent tweet, linking it to the MX reveal. It appears however that there was steady rise in the rate of incoming reservations since mid July. It seems that Tesla referral program is working...
- NA 70 changed from December to Late December, all other models - from late November to December
- Europe (except Denmark) changed from December to Late December
- Denmark - projected delivery estimate did not change and remain to be December for all models. I originally thought that the variance of the estimated delivery time for Denmark is just a typo, but now, it appearsthat this is a pattern which probably means that Tesla prioritizing allocation to Denmark, trying to deliver as many cars as they can before the (potential?) change of the tax laws that favor EVs by the end of this year.
- China - changed from Late November to December
- Hong Kong - all models except 70 changed from December to Late December
An interesting observation is that wait time estimates bottomed out in July and are on a steady rise ever since. This is especially pronounced for NA: the estimated wait times bottomed out at around 4 weeks, then steadily grew and now stand at 9 weeks. Barring abrupt slowdown in production (very unlikely) it is most likely an indication of the pick up in the incoming orders for MS. Elon even mentioned it in the recent tweet, linking it to the MX reveal. It appears however that there was steady rise in the rate of incoming reservations since mid July. It seems that Tesla referral program is working...
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Perfectlogic
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Can't remember the last time I saw every country have the same month of delivery, looks like they are going for the EoY push to reach guidance.
chickensevil
Active Member
Agreed. We will also like see a total drain out of their floor models as they did previously so they can break 50k regardless of what is going on at the factory. Their excuse will of course be making room for the Model X right? HAHA! Either way, should be an interesting 4th quarter.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Wow. Someone please verify, but I just noticed that 70D went from "late December" to "December" (U.S.)
Could mean that production rate is INCREASING. We know that Elon recently said demand (orders) have seen an uptick after MX event.
Could mean that production rate is INCREASING. We know that Elon recently said demand (orders) have seen an uptick after MX event.
That doesn't look like a change from Vgrin's last chart. Also the 70 is still late December.
There has been no change since last update. 70 moved to late December from December. And, 70D moved from late November to December.
RobStark
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Though I wish this was absolutely correct, and I'm not saying it isn't, I don't think you can claim that with certainty. If production dates are moving into January that does tell you that production is sold out for 2015 for Model S but that does not tell you what that production # is.
It's actually possible that we could see the opposite:a large increase in production towards the end of the year (necessary to meet guidance) could result in at least some ETAs not moving to January until later than we might otherwise expect.
True, but I think their Q4 guidance will seal the deal for which situation it will be.
The fact that the production numbers for North America are based on their projected production #'s 2 weeks prior, means that they at least have visibility into their production rates up to that point. With North America already in December, and a 2 week lead time for deliveries by train, it would indicate that they know what their production rate will be up to mid-November (~4 weeks out from now). So by early November, they'll know whether they have the production rate necessary to deliver enough model S' to meet guidance and thus update the wait times til January. If they increase the wait time, but lower Q4 guidance, then we'll know there's no hope of production increasing enough to deliver the numbers. Q3 earnings is only 3 weeks away!
mikes_fsd
Banned
I think you mean "out" not "up" when you move something "up" in schedule, you decrease the time you need to wait and visa versa for moving out...
Cause my initial read of your post confused me
We've got another update, just two days after the previous change in estimated delivery times. It is pretty clear that Tesla is gearing up for a massive pipeline emptying: the European and Chinese estimated delivery times move out very fast, while the NA delivery times remain the same for more than a month now
(since 9/30//2015). This means that absolute majority of the cars manufactured between now and end of the year are diverted for deliveries in US. The allocation of the production to Europe is minimized, so as orders continue to come, the estimated delivery dates move out much faster than for NA.
(since 9/30//2015). This means that absolute majority of the cars manufactured between now and end of the year are diverted for deliveries in US. The allocation of the production to Europe is minimized, so as orders continue to come, the estimated delivery dates move out much faster than for NA.
- estimated delivery times for Europe, GB and China moved out by two weeks (in just two days) - from Late January to February
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