Website wait times for delivery change

[ggr]

If everything Tesla told public is truth, then we should not had seen SP up and down between 180 and 280 in past two years. Historically a lot of misleading information which needs investors to do reality check.

Misleading the market and investors is a serious crime. (Admittedly, not one that is often successfully prosecuted.) But still, they would be on very shaky ground having told Credit Suisse something blatantly inaccurate, this close to the end of a quarter, if they were wrong.

 

[maoing]

All TM gave is the prediction, but if investors treat everything from Elon or TM's prediction as "truth", then it's likely to get "misleading" information and it's been proved in many occurences in past two years.

Misleading the market and investors is a serious crime. (Admittedly, not one that is often successfully prosecuted.) But still, they would be on very shaky ground having told Credit Suisse something blatantly inaccurate, this close to the end of a quarter, if they were wrong.

 

[Spidy]

You have to keep in mind that these are delivery times. Doesn't it take 6-8 weeks or something like that to deliver to Europe. Most of those cars with delivery March probably have production in January. So they will probably have production capacities in February for NA.

 

[stopcrazypp]

All TM gave is the prediction, but if investors treat everything from Elon or TM's prediction as "truth", then it's likely to get "misleading" information and it's been proved in many occurences in past two years.

This isn't a case of giving some guidance at the beginning of the year where things can easily change. There's less than 1 month left so the credibility is far higher.

 

[schonelucht]

I will not be surprised if the lead time in NA goes straight to March once they finish with December. They will push as many as they can into December with whatever they can't fit into January (since they will have still made the cars), but at the point of the cutoff where they know they no longer can make the dates and start pushing people into January we will likely see the website change to March. All other countries might very well start showing April at that point and we will be starting all over again with trying to refill the pipe. I expect January deliveries to basically fall through the floor, especially with NA.

Agree. NA wait times will rapidly increase once they can't deliver this year anymore. Maybe not straight away to March but very quickly indeed. On top of your stated reasons, they'll start Model X production for real in Q1 so that will take even more capacity away so filling the pipeline again will take quite a bit of time.

 

[Hogfighter]

NA wait time changed to January.

All TM gave is the prediction, but if investors treat everything from Elon or TM's prediction as "truth", then it's likely to get "misleading" information and it's been proved in many occurences in past two years.

The word 'prediction' is not the same thing as stating something will 100% happen. You can't use the word 'truth' when something in the future does not occur that you thought would happen.

It's an important difference.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Thank you, Hogfighter!

There are two updates today:

• Estimated delivery time for US orders changed from Late December to January (28 days after the previous update on 11/14/2015)
• Estimated delivery time for Chinese orders changed from Late February to March (22 days after the previous update on 11/20/2015)

So US wait time moved out by two weeks within the span of four weeks (note that Canadian delivery time is not updated so far and remains to be Late December, but I think that Tesla is just late to update Canadian estimated delivery times). Since factory was manufacturing exclusively NA orders within the last four weeks, and US orders are roughly 50% of the world wide orders, this is very good outcome. In fact, to the questions about NA demand, assuming the average production rate of 1200 cars/week, and taking into account the above would indicate that incoming NA orders are about 600 per week or 28,800 cars/year (assuming 48 working weeks per year). This is, of course an approximate number, but one which show that US demand if very healthy.

Given latest Tesla statement about strong demand in Europe and improving orders from China, it seems that annual MS demand easily exceeds 50,000 cars. This might spell trouble for Tesla, because if MX demand is at least equal to MX (it actually likely to exceed it) the total MS/MX demand would be around 120K cars per year. Given Tesla projection of producing 83K to 93K cars per year, we might again see that Tesla will be production constrained in 2016.

 

[Hogfighter]

Given latest Tesla statement about strong demand in Europe and improving orders from China, it seems that annual MS demand easily exceeds 50,000 cars. This might spell trouble for Tesla, because if MX demand is at least equal to MX (it actually likely to exceed it) the total MS/MX demand would be around 120K cars per year. Given Tesla projection of producing 83K to 93K cars per year, we might again see that Tesla will be production constrained in 2016.

Sure thing!

It also seems that once X production hits full stride, S production will decrease from around 1,200 per week to something like 800 (assuming 800-1000 X's per week and 1,600 - 1,800 total capacity). Of course that assumes that the capacity constraint is the final assembly line. The bears will cry that demand has fallen if that occurs.

 

[FredTMC]

Sure thing!

It also seems that once X production hits full stride, S production will decrease from around 1,200 per week to something like 800 (assuming 800-1000 X's per week and 1,600 - 1,800 total capacity). Of course that assumes that the capacity constraint is the final assembly line. The bears will cry that demand has fallen if that occurs.

+1. Yes, this is my assessment too.

 

[schonelucht]

NA wait time changed to January.

50k is now in the bag.

 

[vgrinshpun]

50k is now in the bag.

Well, tecnically, all these cars need to be delivered too, with massive, record deliveries to be done across at least NA and European regions. So we are half way there - it is most likely that Tesla manufactured all cars needed to meet the min guidance (50K), hopefully deliveries will go as planned as well.

 

[FredTMC]

Well, tecnically, all these cars need to be delivered too, with massive, record deliveries to be done across at least NA and European regions. So we are half way there - it is most likely that Tesla manufactured all cars needed to meet the min guidance (50K), hopefully deliveries will go as planned as well.

Honestly, I don’t believe end of December deliveries will be all that bad. No huge surge... reason: ModelS deliveries have been humming along and it doesn’t appear we any issues or delays in producing MS (unlike last year - port strike, MS seats, etc)

Sure, MX deliveries will be bunched up during the final weeks of December but there won’t be more than 500 delivered (IMO) and likely only a few hundred.

Weather and availability of customers to receive their cars remain an issue. last year there were apparently customers that couldn’t make themselves available to receive their cars.

 

[maoing]

A cautious view. Wouldn't your guys think TM was forced to move the delivery date estimate because the minimum time (3 weeks) required from ordering --> confirmation --> sourcing --> production to delivery? If that's the case, the 50K model S still not in the bag yet. If TM needs to hit 17K low end Q4 guidance, it represents 50% jump from Q3. Go check the EU Oct./Nov. delivery number vs. July/August in http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showwiki.php?title=Europe+2015+Model+S+sales. It's almost flat or at best single digit growth. To do a simple math below:
EU Q3 delivery total: 3516
Estimated Q4 delivery: 3516 * 1.5 = 5274
Q4 Oct./Nov. delivery: 2439

So December is expected to deliver 5274-2439=2835 or sth. around that number. I read from twitter that Norway only delivered 123 model S in first 12 days of December. Norway is the 2nd biggest market of Tesla and largest market in EU. So I leave your guys figure out where is the delivery growth come from instead of TM's prediction.

 

[SebastianR]

A cautious view. Wouldn't your guys think TM was forced to move the delivery date estimate because the minimum time (3 weeks) required from ordering --> confirmation --> sourcing --> production --> delivery?

Until here I agree with you - I don't think the delivery time move to January NEEDS to be for the reason that all is sold but I think it could also be for the reason that time is running out.

If TM needs to hit 17K low end Q4 guidance, it represents 50% jump from Q3. Go check the EU Oct./Nov. delivery number vs. July/August in http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showwiki.php?title=Europe+2015+Model+S+sales. It's almost flat or at best single digit growth. To do a simple math below:
EU Q3 delivery total: 3516
Estimated Q4 delivery: 3516 * 1.5 = 5274
Q4 Oct./Nov. delivery: 2439

So December is expected to deliver 5274-2439=2835 or sth. around that number. I read from twitter that Norway only delivered 123 model S in first 12 days of December. Norway is the 2nd biggest market of Tesla and largest market in EU. So I leave your guys figure out where is the delivery growth come from instead of TM's claim.

You keep focussing on Norway. That's entirely wrong right now. In Denmark the game will be decided for the EU in 2015. If they manage to deliver +1200 cars for DK in December, then all is good for Europe. If not, well....

 

[vgrinshpun]

A cautious view. Wouldn't your guys think TM was forced to move the delivery date estimate because the minimum time (3 weeks) required from ordering --> confirmation --> sourcing --> production to delivery? If that's the case, the 50K model S still not in the bag yet. If TM needs to hit 17K low end Q4 guidance, it represents 50% jump from Q3. Go check the EU Oct./Nov. delivery number vs. July/August in http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showwiki.php?title=Europe+2015+Model+S+sales. It's almost flat or at best single digit growth. To do a simple math below:
EU Q3 delivery total: 3516
Estimated Q4 delivery: 3516 * 1.5 = 5274
Q4 Oct./Nov. delivery: 2439

So December is expected to deliver 5274-2439=2835 or sth. around that number. I read from twitter that Norway only delivered 123 model S in first 12 days of December. Norway is the 2nd biggest market of Tesla and largest market in EU. So I leave your guys figure out where is the delivery growth come from instead of TM's prediction.

You've picked wrong quarter for the comparison. Q3 was first quarter when Tesla tried to level monthly deliveries within quarter. Q4 will be the most backloaded quarter of any so far, because they are planning to deliver about 2K cars more than produce. The proper comparison is to Q2, done here for Europe. Similar could be done for US. That is why there will be massive deliveries during second half of this month.

 

[maoing]

I see your point. If I compare Oct/Nov. vs. April/May, it's about 35% growth.

You've picked wrong quarter for the comparison. Q3 was first quarter when Tesla tried to level monthly deliveries within quarter. Q4 will be the most backloaded quarter of any so far, because they are planning to deliver about 2K cars more than produce. The proper comparison is to Q2, done here for Europe. Similar could be done for US. That is why there will be massive deliveries during second half of this month.

- - - Updated - - -

1200 is 6-7X of normal delivery month. It must be exordinary activities in Denmark SC, any observation to confirm? Even Norway kind of ramping down right now, but it's still an important sample point for delivery and demand.

You keep focussing on Norway. That's entirely wrong right now. In Denmark the game will be decided for the EU in 2015. If they manage to deliver +1200 cars for DK in December, then all is good for Europe. If not, well....

 

[SebastianR]

1200 is 6-7X of normal delivery month. It must be exordinary activities in Denmark SC, any observation to confirm? Even Norway kind of ramping down right now, but it's still an important sample point for delivery and demand.

EV incentives will be cut in 2016 for DK. There are rumours that DK sold 2000 cars in the last quarter of 2015. The last bump in the numbers was an early indication for that being true. The key month will be DEC. Not much going on in Norway as I believe sales / DS personnel is helping out in DK. Have not gone to any SC to see anything myself.

 

[schonelucht]

EV incentives will be cut in 2016 for DK. There are rumours that DK sold 2000 cars in the last quarter of 2015.

Do we know if that number includes CPOs? Or are those on top? Either way, it must be incredibly busy at Danish locations. When there was a quarterly surge in Norway or the Netherlands before we always had good pictures of rows and rows of cars being prepped for delivery.

 

[hobbes]

I read from twitter that Norway only delivered 123 model S in first 12 days of December.

Correct - and the count for November 1-14 was at only 65 for comparison: (Nesten) 1500 nye Model S registrert i Mars!
So one could extrapolate and say we´re on track to almost double deliveries in Norway Dec over Nov. But it is only one single country and not the one that will move the big numbers this month.

 

[Spidy]

Delivery time seems to be based on IP on the US Design Studio.

gsxdsm comments on teslamotors.com changed the updated delivery estimate of Model S from Late December to January.