Website wait times for delivery change

[Quant]

Delivery time seems to be based on IP on the US Design Studio.

gsxdsm comments on teslamotors.com changed the updated delivery estimate of Model S from Late December to January.

I would rather see shorts stay convinced that TSLA won't make 50 K. I would prefer to see stock say sideways and see more shorts pile in and so in Jan and again in March more shorts get creamed ! That's just the best thing one can have for lunch or dinner!!

And if I lose all my investment in TSLA it won't change my future financial shape much....so my joy comes from seeing shorts go broke.

So, if you want to see the same, I suggest not posting too much positive stuff. Better to create doubt and see them lose big ! . So, please go ahead and make my day...ah no....my life !

 

[chickensevil]

Delivery time seems to be based on IP on the US Design Studio.

gsxdsm comments on teslamotors.com changed the updated delivery estimate of Model S from Late December to January.

Explains why VG and I see Jan. This is a new one and might be worth investigating further.

 

[MikeC]

Explains why VG and I see Jan. This is a new one and might be worth investigating further.

Well, I'm in Los Angeles and right now I'm seeing February for all Model S models.

 

[dha]

Well, I'm in Los Angeles and right now I'm seeing February for all Model S models.

In Los Angeles as well, also seeing "February Delivery" for all Model S trims.

 

[RobStark]

In Los Angeles as well, also seeing "February Delivery" for all Model S trims.

I'm in LA too and this morning it was late December delivery for all trims and now it is February delivery for all trims.

 

[uselesslogin]

I'm in LA too and this morning it was late December delivery for all trims and now it is February delivery for all trims.

Austin, TX is also showing February delivery.

 

[schonelucht]

Makes sense that they skipped January. All model S production slots are already occupied by overseas orders. However, the fact that they tried to squeeze in a few more Californian orders until today may mean 50k was not yet in the bag after all but just that shipping logistics meant east coast delivery simply ran out of time.

 

[sub]

Makes sense that they skipped January. All model S production slots are already occupied by overseas orders. However, the fact that they tried to squeeze in a few more Californian orders until today may mean 50k was not yet in the bag after all but just that shipping logistics meant east coast delivery simply ran out of time.

Or they realized they could fit in a few more to push deliveries even further above 50k. We can all make WAG.

 

[dakh]

I can't help but think they're going to do a capital raise, otherwise why would they be going so much out of their way to meet some numbers pulled out of thin air?

 

[bh1783]

I can't help but think they're going to do a capital raise, otherwise why would they be going so much out of their way to meet some numbers pulled out of thin air?

Another reason to clear inventory is a Model S refresh(LED headlights, new front fascia, ventilated seats).

 

[schonelucht]

Or they realized they could fit in a few more to push deliveries even further above 50k. We can all make WAG.

Sure it's an (un)educated guess. Here is my thinking : they went to the trouble of doing something that they never did before (AFAIK), which is making expected delivery times on their website differ depending on geo location within the US. If you're in a crunch, is that something the company would spend resources in if it wasn't absolutely necessary?

 

[Hogfighter]

Whatever the reason for doing it, it now appears that we were correct in assuming that Tesla was putting the rest of the world on hold and concentrating their deliveries in the US. The good news of this is that the relatively short wait times in the US was apparently not caused by a lack of demand.

 

[SebastianR]

Do we know if that number includes CPOs? Or are those on top? Either way, it must be incredibly busy at Danish locations. When there was a quarterly surge in Norway or the Netherlands before we always had good pictures of rows and rows of cars being prepped for delivery.

Honestly, I wouldn't know. But my assumption (warning, that's only a rumor) would be that CPOs are on top of that.

 

[sub]

Sure it's an (un)educated guess. Here is my thinking : they went to the trouble of doing something that they never did before (AFAIK), which is making expected delivery times on their website differ depending on geo location within the US. If you're in a crunch, is that something the company would spend resources in if it wasn't absolutely necessary?

How much resources would that take? One guy and 30 minutes? Something like this..."Hey, we need to deliver as many cars as we can before Dec 31st. Look at our delivery time to each market and adjust delivery window on the website accordingly. As end of year gets closer, remove those markets that we can no longer deliver to before Dec 31st".

I doubt anywhere in that conversation this is mentioned.... "let's stop all model S deliveries when we get to 50k deliveries and let the factory go idle until 2016/Model X prodction ramps".

Yup, huge resources.

 

[Quant]

How much resources would that take? One guy and 30 minutes? Something like this..."Hey, we need to deliver as many cars as we can before Dec 31st. Look at our delivery time to each market and adjust delivery window on the website accordingly. As end of year gets closer, remove those markets that we can no longer deliver to before Dec 31st".

I doubt anywhere in that conversation this is mentioned.... "let's stop all model S deliveries when we get to 50k deliveries and let the factory go idle until 2016/Model X prodction ramps".

Yup, huge resources.

hahaha ....my sentiments exactly, but maybe not 30 minutes but maybe a few hours ...dunno with some of the posters here though....

 

[FredTMC]

I can't help but think they're going to do a capital raise, otherwise why would they be going so much out of their way to meet some numbers pulled out of thin air?

My view is that they are simply working to meet or exceed their guidance. The numbers aren't from thin air. It's their guidance

 

[stopcrazypp]

My view is that they are simply working to meet or exceed their guidance. The numbers aren't from thin air. It's their guidance

Right, their guidance was 50-55k. I think even if 50k is in the bag, they will do their best to approach 55k.

 

[Quant]

I can't help but think they're going to do a capital raise, otherwise why would they be going so much out of their way to meet some numbers pulled out of thin air?

Perhaps, you are new to how public companies are managed? All companies try to meet or exceed guidance , every quarter . And TSLA guided to between 50-52.5 deliveries for 2015. So, they are trying to exceed 50 k for the year.

No, there is no capital raise coming right now because they have a good cash cushion and expect to be cash flow positive on a GAAP basis by March '16. After they unveil the Model 3 and Model Y , if orders are over 100 K ( reservations ) within the first 6 months and Tesla Energy demand forecasts are firmly set at high levels then they might be right to do a raise at that time .

 

[dakh]

Perhaps, you are new to how public companies are managed? All companies try to meet or exceed guidance , every quarter . And TSLA guided to between 50-52.5 deliveries for 2015. So, they are trying to exceed 50 k for the year.

No, there is no capital raise coming right now because they have a good cash cushion and expect to be cash flow positive on a GAAP basis by March '16. After they unveil the Model 3 and Model Y , if orders are over 100 K ( reservations ) within the first 6 months and Tesla Energy demand forecasts are firmly set at high levels then they might be right to do a raise at that time .

Well, now that I think about it, the previous statement was that they'll stop doing this type of thing but AFAIR it came with a clause that they'll optimize for profit margin vs. deliveries. In this case yes they're going out of their way to meet the number but also there's no evidence of them throwing money away doing truck deliveries vs. train. Maybe there is some. As a long term investor, if they don't plan to raise capital, I'd prefer them not to engage in this type of behavior. But if profit margins aren't affected and it's just a bit of extra logistics, way to go TSLA.

 

[Quant]

Well, now that I think about it, the previous statement was that they'll stop doing this type of thing but AFAIR it came with a clause that they'll optimize for profit margin vs. deliveries. In this case yes they're going out of their way to meet the number but also there's no evidence of them throwing money away doing truck deliveries vs. train. Maybe there is some. As a long term investor, if they don't plan to raise capital, I'd prefer them not to engage in this type of behavior. But if profit margins aren't affected and it's just a bit of extra logistics, way to go TSLA.

Elon IS a long-term investor...so am I, and most others on this board - from what I see.

As as for optimization and logistics, I am confident being on the inside, they know what they doing with their math and logic ( objective function ), and I suspect, being on the outside, we don't ! So, second guessing them on these kind of details, from the outside, is futile.