Wow you quoted a comment from March 2014. Your punishment should be having to read every post in all threads since then. It is so old I couldn't remember writing it. It should be catalogued in the classic section
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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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Model S and X will be delivered in Germany in early 2017 if you order now. Model X shows March 2017 as the earliest in the drop down menu, and Model S late january.
I wonder when do they produce the cars to be delivered in Germany in late January? Surely they must be produced in 2016 in order to arrive on time? So does that mean they are already sure to hit guidance without producing and delivering everything they can to the US in very late 2016?
I wonder when do they produce the cars to be delivered in Germany in late January? Surely they must be produced in 2016 in order to arrive on time? So does that mean they are already sure to hit guidance without producing and delivering everything they can to the US in very late 2016?
Q4 is now sold out. Estimated delivery time for Model S (US) moved out from end of December to February, Model X - from end of December to January.
dc_h
Active Member
This would imply they have at least 5,000 international model S orders in pocket and at least 2-5000 Model X orders as well.
Going purely from memory, this seems like it's a week or two earlier than what we've seen recently, no?
All indications are that Tesla is planning to maximize deliveries of cars produced this quarter by the end of December, similarly to Q4 2015. This means that Telsa use similar batching of production by geographic area - Asia/Pacific in the very end of previous quarter and beginning of the current quarter, Europe afterwards, through the middle of the current quarter and, finally NA in the second half of the current quarter.
This means that the most relevant comparison is with the cadence of the estimated delivery time changes in Q4 2015. As seen here, similar switchover in Q4 2015 happened on December 12th, 2 weeks later than the switch over that happened today.
This is very good news, as it implies that the only way Tesla could miss it's guidance is if there were hick-ups with production. I do not recall seeing any posts indicative of production delays (if somebody has information otherwise, please link it here).
Or as some people assume have build a significant amount of Inventory cars that yet have to be sold. EV CPO lists almost 1500 Inventory cars.
At any given time, just by the virtue of Tesla needing to maintain demo fleet, there should be about 1600 "demo" fleet cars for sale. Looks like you are not accounting for this reality.
The first post on this thread says his DS "said the delivery date would slip to late December as the AP2 introduction has caused some delays at the factory and put everything slightly behind."
Model X December Deliveries
Of course, we can't know if the DS was just making up excuses, or there was a real issue. But this is the only instance I've seen of someone mentioning production issues this quarter.
Why does Tesla need 27 Demo cars in Denmark a country where they have been selling 2 cars per month over the last months?
Two stores in Denmark would need 8 Model S in demo fleet. 16 cars are AP1, which as was discussed repeatedly, were built as inventory before the switch over to AP2 to prevent unhappy customers receiving AP1 cars just before the switch over. So that accounts for 24 Model S cars out of 27 you mentioned. Why cherry pick the data?
BTW the Cpo now lists 1299
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I don't see those 1299 CPOs? What am I missing? Looked on ev-cpo and teslainventory.com
Cpo = ev-cpo website, 1299 - US + EU + HK Model S cars on the ev-cpo website. Apologies for the cryptic language.
WHY? They are did not even sell 8 cars in last quarter, why the heck would they need 8 Demo cars then? And since Tesla only sold very little cars in Denmark they should still have most of their old demo cars, why get even more? Yes, I get the build AP1 Inventory to not have unhappy customers, but there is no point to ship those cars as demo cars to Denmark.
What do you want them to display? Cutout of Porsche Mission E? How are they supposed to give test drives? Borrow BMW i3?
Old demo cars were pre-refresh, they were sold long time ago, using appropriate discounts. Are you suggest that they adopt new business model of holding onto the cars with outdated design and features? How is that going to help them selling cars with refreshed design and new features?
And once again, you are cherry picking the data. It is well known that Denmark, with the change in tax laws is a special case. A lot of demand was pulled forward in Q4 2015 because of tax law change. The natural demand is higher than what is currently sold - it will take some time to sort out.
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So they didn't have any Demo cars for the last 3-5 months then and are just now putting facelift cars into their stores, is that what you are telling me? Or did they have facelift cars, then why replace them now? If they are replacing 27 demo cars why do I not see any old demo Inventory listed for Denmark? Why are they right now putting in AP1 cars as demo cars and not new AP2?
With the new tax, price basically doubled. That meant natural demand was cut ten-fold (see Short Term thread for discussion). I don't think there is much point for Tesla to keep a huge Model S/X sales presence in Denmark. Better concentrate on fleshing out the service infrastructure (which was/is kind of overwhelmed from all those cars) and then come back once the model 3 is there to renew sales commitment. Meanwhile it may be better to reinforce German sales efforts : now that the entry level Model S qualifies for a nice incentive there should be potential to lift up sales from the current level.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
So now we have March delivery dates in the US? I really hope this has nothing to do with AP2 production issues. February deliveries didn't last long at all.
I doubt they would be so quick to push back delivery dates even if they were having some AP2 production delays.
Looks like US deliveries were recently updated to late March from March for both S and X.
For comparison, on 12/14/2015 US Model S deliveries were updated to February from January -- see post #663:
Website wait times for delivery change
Edit: Another reference point, last year NA deliveries were moved from March to late March on January 25, 2016 -- roughly a month and half later than this year. See post #716: Website wait times for delivery change
For comparison, on 12/14/2015 US Model S deliveries were updated to February from January -- see post #663:
Website wait times for delivery change
Edit: Another reference point, last year NA deliveries were moved from March to late March on January 25, 2016 -- roughly a month and half later than this year. See post #716: Website wait times for delivery change
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