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What happened to the cpo inventory?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Nototrader, Feb 17, 2016.

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  1. andrewknight

    andrewknight Member

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    Skotty don't do this. Yes shipping charges suck but make your search national! There is a wide range of pricing between each market and California easily has the most inventory available. My SFO CPO was $10k less than any of the P85's in Atlanta so I was happy to pay the $1,500. My Tesla CPO Buying Experience
     
  2. shfaxx

    shfaxx New Member

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    Not sure if someone mentioned this yet, but it also seems all the CPOs cars prices have dropped. All but ~7 of the 96 posted all show a delta now.
     
  3. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    Most of the S60's have gone.
    There are only three left - and counting
     
  4. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    The guy is trolling us - let's stop feeding him. He's pretending to be emotionally unstable and irrational.
     
  5. dgpcolorado

    dgpcolorado high altitude member

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    Makes sense. S60s, and other lower priced cars, figure to be suitable for loaner use and have less value for sales as CPOs. Makes me glad I got mine when I could (for a lot less than the current $60k minimum price).
     
  6. HankLloydRight

    HankLloydRight No Roads

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    I haven't had time to do this until today, but there still seems to be a lot of theories about what cars were removed from the CPO list and why -- low VINs, higher mileage, older cars, cheaper cars, undesirable cars, etc. I'm here to dispell those myths once and for all.

    Taking 274 cars removed during the two big distinct drops on 2/17 an 2/18, here are the facts:

    Lowest VIN: S00144 (yup, Sig 144)
    Higest VIN: 098784

    Lowest miles: 1,827 (VIN 33213)
    Highest miles: 52,028 (VIN 32169)

    Lowest price: $48,900 (VIN 12177)
    Highest price: $112,900 (VIN 94411)

    Trim levels removed:
    S60 28 cars
    S85 126 cars
    P85 58 cars
    P85+ 47 cars
    P85D 13 cars

    With Autopilot: 15
    With TechPackage: 256
    Neither AP or TP: 3

    By Model Year:
    2012 9 cars
    2013 137 cars
    2014 123 cars
    2015 4 cars

    Histogram of VINs (each bin line is VIN "up to" that value, so the first bar are VINs 0 to 10000):
    hist.png


    Histogram of Price:
    hist2.png

    The important thing to keep in mind that there were all customer trade-ins, and therefore skew heavily towards the middle VINs and years where most of these cars were bought, and less so for the more recent years where people had just bought new cars and are not trading them in as much.
     
  7. whitex

    whitex Active Member

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    If you have data of what those histograms looked like for all available CPO's before and after the removal, you could speculate whether a specific vin or price range was targetted. If the distributions look the same before and after, then it would mean that they just reduced their inventory across the board.
     
  8. HankLloydRight

    HankLloydRight No Roads

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    Yes I can do that tomorrow.
     
  9. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    #129 Skotty, Feb 21, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2016
    This statement doesn't even make any sense. Some might think I am emotionally unstable, and who knows, maybe they are right, but it's not pretend. But nothing I said is irrational.

    Are you suggesting irrational because I would exclude potentially cheaper overall cars from California due to shipping charges I find higher than reasonable? That's not irrational. It's a matter of principle. Let me give you another real world example from my life. I frequently go to a particular restaurant and get a to-go meal. The bar tender can optionally give me my soda for free, but some bartenders go ahead and charge me for it. I know the bar tender doesn't set the prices, but a to go soda from that restaurant is about 12 oz of soda and the charge for it is almost 3 dollars. I find this to be a completely unreasonable charge for a 12 oz to-go soda. If they charge me for the soda, I tip them nothing; their tip pays for my soda. If they go ahead and give it to me for free, I tip them roughly the cost of the soda plus a couple of dollars extra for their generosity. Overall, I end up paying more when they give me my soda for free. This isn't irrational. It's a matter of principle.
     
  10. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    After going over things with my wife, looking at finances, options, etc, based on the current CPO market what we will do is push our budget up another $5K. That will put our max budget at $75K, with < $70K preferred (up from 70/65), which opens up a reasonable market of CPO cars again. This is getting awfully close to new car cost territory, and we did take another look new car options, but CPO still looks like the better path for getting the desired options...that, and some have suggested the inventory changes are to get CPO buyers to consider buying new instead, which makes me want to keep pushing for CPO on the off chance they are right (I'm not only immune to peer pressure, I often actively rebel against it, though not consistently so, as I wouldn't want anyone being successful trying to use reverse psychology on me; I suppose this makes me a difficult person to deal with sometimes).
     
  11. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    The deciding factor for me was no AP on the reasonably priced CPO vehicles. This pretty much forces you into INV or NEW if you want AP.
     
  12. MsElectric

    MsElectric Active Member

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    Or the third option is to wait a couple of months for the inventory and pricing levels to return to what they were :)
     
  13. Daniel Smith

    Daniel Smith Member

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    I received this reply today from my CPO rep. I've underlined the key point.


    Hello Daniel,


    Many of our vehicles have been selling quite quickly but we have also set some cars aside to be permanent Service Loaners. Fortunately, in the next few weeks we will see another influx in pre owned vehicles available for sale once we get many lease returns and RVG vehicles back. If you see any that are on our website that you’re interested in now please let me know.
     
  14. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    I can understand that. Personally, I've tried auto-pilot, and I'm completely indifferent towards it, so I'm probably better off trying to find a good deal on a non-AP car.
     
  15. wolfson292

    wolfson292 Architect

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    In my case I was looking for a 70 not a 85 or 90, and I am not expecting a large amount of CPO 70's or 70D's anytime too soon. Sure some INV vehicles might show up, but they are barely discounted.
     
  16. SabrToothSqrl

    SabrToothSqrl Active Member

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    cheapest CPO AP car is (or was) $95.

    I think I now have my sights set on a P85D instead of a X for my next one...
     
  17. lemonhead18

    lemonhead18 Member

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    Take a look at this for $69800. I would buy this if I had not already placed my deposit.
    85 kWh Performance Model S P39584 | Tesla Motors
     
  18. EVenthusiast

    EVenthusiast Member

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  19. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    The kind of people that get a new car every 2 years will be turning in their 70D later this year. Just depends on if late 2016 is your idea of "anytime soon".

    They won't be as common as P85D CPOs but they'll show up.
     
  20. whitex

    whitex Active Member

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    The kind of people who get a new car every 2years usually don't buy the base model. You may need to wait for lease returns in 2017 for a larger wave of 70's, though even then i would expect 70's to be in a minority.
     

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