Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register
This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
So with this speculation about a silicon-anode in Tesla's new batteries, does that diminish the prospects of companies like Novonix that are developing graphite-based anode materials? I imagine it does. Anyone else have thoughts?
 
I am seriously considering buying $10K each of Li Auto, Nio & Xpeng Motors (when they list)
Should I wait for the latter 2 to be quarterly profitable before buying in?
Any other thoughts?

I might get in on Xpeng. Copying Tesla is not a bad strategy even if they have done it too much. Anyone know what day Xpeng is going to IPO? Rumor is sometime this week, but I do not know the day.
 
OK guys, here's a pretty solid EV manufacturer that has been on fire the last three days (or rather, their stock price has been).

GreenPower Motor Company Inc. (GPVRF in the US or GPV.V in Canada) is listed on the Toronto Venture stock exchange. They make purpose built EV passenger vans, typically 40 or so passengers, so a class 4 vehicle. They also make EV school buses. And they just came out with an EV platform product where they sell to OEMS who can then make cube vans, motorhomes, etc.

Here's their website and latest investor presentation:
Electric Bus | EV Bus | Zero-Emission Bus | EV-Star by GreenPower Bus
https://www.greenpowerbus.com/wp-co...reenpower-Investor-Presentation-June-2020.pdf

A 2 year old review:
EV Star Electric Van’s Looks Belie Its Green Performance

Check out their News section, they have 21(!) pages of press releases. This is a legit company that's been flying under the radar for a while. The most recent three wild days (and the melt up for the past month) was due to them filing a step up listing to be listed on the Nasdaq in addition to the Toronto exchange (see here: GreenPower Motor | IPOScoop).

So, my take on them (obviously you can look at the stock price chart and volume - as I said its been on fire):

These are typical Canadians (I'm from Canada so I know the type :) ) in that they have been competently plodding along. They've been undercapitalized for years, yet still managed to get 100% revenue growth the last two years. While they've been "public", they've never had much money in the bank, surviving through $1M to $2M private placements every six months or year or so. For most of their history, they've been a penny stock, low volume, stock price under $1 and market cap well below $100M.

But they make real products, and have real sales. They are competent. Based on growing sales, they bought land near Porterville, CA a few years ago to build their US factory to take advantage of Buy USA incentives (something very important for sales to municipalities), and they built that factory and have it churning out buses now.

The only knock I have against them is that they aren't aggressive enough in terms of raising capital and doing step changes in production/sales. Yes, growing 100% per year is nothing to sneeze at, but they could do better with better capitalization. Having said that, they are indeed looking to do their biggest raise to date with a $35M step up IPO on Nasdaq, so maybe now's the time they'll start being more aggressive.
 
Last edited:
So with this speculation about a silicon-anode in Tesla's new batteries, does that diminish the prospects of companies like Novonix that are developing graphite-based anode materials? I imagine it does. Anyone else have thoughts?

I would think it does take the shine off Novonix. I've always been leery of companies that make pieces of battery cells and have the latest "great" technology. Battery cell technology is advancing way too rapidly and it is easy for companies to get caught out. It was like that Canadian graphite mine that had that great video (where the CEO was asking Elon to use their graphite as a supplier, NOU.V). It may be that natural graphite gets bypassed entirely going forward, and similarly, Novonix's technology might not matter.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: canoemore
OK guys, here's a pretty solid EV manufacturer that has been on fire the last three days (or rather, their stock price has been).

GreenPower Motor Company Inc. (GPVRF in the US or GPV.V in Canada) is listed on the Toronto Venture stock exchange. They make purpose built EV passenger vans, typically 40 or so passengers, so a class 4 vehicle. They also make EV school buses. And they just came out with an EV platform product where they sell to OEMS who can then make cube vans, motorhomes, etc.

Here's their website and latest investor presentation:
Electric Bus | EV Bus | Zero-Emission Bus | EV-Star by GreenPower Bus
https://www.greenpowerbus.com/wp-co...reenpower-Investor-Presentation-June-2020.pdf

A 2 year old review:
EV Star Electric Van’s Looks Belie Its Green Performance

Check out their News section, they have 21(!) pages of press releases. This is a legit company that's been flying under the radar for a while. The most recent three wild days (and the melt up for the past month) was due to them filing a step up listing to be listed on the Nasdaq in addition to the Toronto exchange (see here: GreenPower Motor | IPOScoop).

So, my take on them (obviously you can look at the stock price chart and volume - as I said its been on fire):

These are typical Canadians (I'm from Canada so I know the type :) ) in that they have been competently plodding along. They've been undercapitalized for years, yet still managed to get 100% revenue growth the last two years. While they've been "public", they've never had much money in the bank, surviving through $1M to $2M private placements every six months or year or so. For most of their history, they've been a penny stock, low volume, stock price under $1 and market cap well below $100M.

But they make real products, and have real sales. They are competent. Based on growing sales, they bought land near Porterville, CA a few years ago to build their US factory to take advantage of Buy USA incentives (something very important for sales to municipalities), and they built that factory and have it churning out buses now.

The only knock I have against them is that they aren't aggressive enough in terms of raising capital and doing step changes in production/sales. Yes, growing 100% per year is nothing to sneeze at, but they could do better with better capitalization. Having said that, they are indeed looking to do their biggest raise to date with a $35M step up IPO on Nasdaq, so maybe now's the time they'll start being more aggressive.

It does look it’s a legit company with growing revenues. Thanks for sharing, any idea why they are up 200% in 3 days? It seems like they reported earnings at least a month ago.
 
It does look it’s a legit company with growing revenues. Thanks for sharing, any idea why they are up 200% in 3 days? It seems like they reported earnings at least a month ago.

That was covered in his post:

The most recent three wild days (and the melt up for the past month) was due to them filing a step up listing to be listed on the Nasdaq in addition to the Toronto exchange (see here: GreenPower Motor | IPOScoop).
 
It does look it’s a legit company with growing revenues. Thanks for sharing, any idea why they are up 200% in 3 days? It seems like they reported earnings at least a month ago.

It started going vertical when they most recently refiled their F-1. It must have been filed after market close on the 19th. So on the 20th, it started popping.

EDGAR Search Results

It looks like they've been trying to do this Nasdaq registration since February, so I'm not sure why it caught fire last Thursday, but maybe it's just because this market is crazier now that it was earlier in the year. Or, I am misreading the SEC document trail (always a possibility).
 
It started going vertical when they most recently refiled their F-1. It must have been filed after market close on the 19th. So on the 20th, it started popping.

EDGAR Search Results

It looks like they've been trying to do this Nasdaq registration since February, so I'm not sure why it caught fire last Thursday, but maybe it's just because this market is crazier now that it was earlier in the year. Or, I am misreading the SEC document trail (always a possibility).

Thanks. Yep anything with EV in it seems to be catching fire. I will have to track this, maybe start a really small position
 
I am seriously considering buying $10K each of Li Auto, Nio & Xpeng Motors (when they list)
Should I wait for the latter 2 to be quarterly profitable before buying in?
Any other thoughts?
Of the three, Li Auto is the one which sells a PHEV, not a BEV.

NIO is notable for contracting manufacturing out, they don't own their own factories.

Xiaopeng are of course the ones currently being sued by Tesla for trying to steal Autopilot technology.
 
I would think it does take the shine off Novonix. I've always been leery of companies that make pieces of battery cells and have the latest "great" technology. Battery cell technology is advancing way too rapidly and it is easy for companies to get caught out. It was like that Canadian graphite mine that had that great video (where the CEO was asking Elon to use their graphite as a supplier, NOU.V). It may be that natural graphite gets bypassed entirely going forward, and similarly, Novonix's technology might not matter.
I'm not sure if you know the history of Novonix. But it was spun out of Pr Jeff Dahn's lab at Dalhousie Uni.

Novonix Dr Chris Burns setup the Tesla Battery Research lab with Pr Dahn before he founded Novonix.

Pr Dahn hinted this week that he plans on working at Novonix when he retires from Tesla in 2021.

The Jeff Dahn effect: superstar alumni and a growing regional battery cluster

Hyperchange Interview with Novonix and Dr Chris Burns

Novonix has filed their accounts with OTC Best Markets under the ticker NVNXF. Will be listed in the US in mid September.

https://sec.report/otc/financial-report/255947

If anyone has any questions about Novonix feel free to ask.
 
OK guys, here's a pretty solid EV manufacturer that has been on fire the last three days (or rather, their stock price has been).

GreenPower Motor Company Inc. (GPVRF in the US or GPV.V in Canada) is listed on the Toronto Venture stock exchange. They make purpose built EV passenger vans, typically 40 or so passengers, so a class 4 vehicle. They also make EV school buses. And they just came out with an EV platform product where they sell to OEMS who can then make cube vans, motorhomes, etc.

Here's their website and latest investor presentation:
Electric Bus | EV Bus | Zero-Emission Bus | EV-Star by GreenPower Bus
https://www.greenpowerbus.com/wp-co...reenpower-Investor-Presentation-June-2020.pdf

A 2 year old review:
EV Star Electric Van’s Looks Belie Its Green Performance

Check out their News section, they have 21(!) pages of press releases. This is a legit company that's been flying under the radar for a while. The most recent three wild days (and the melt up for the past month) was due to them filing a step up listing to be listed on the Nasdaq in addition to the Toronto exchange (see here: GreenPower Motor | IPOScoop).

So, my take on them (obviously you can look at the stock price chart and volume - as I said its been on fire):

These are typical Canadians (I'm from Canada so I know the type :) ) in that they have been competently plodding along. They've been undercapitalized for years, yet still managed to get 100% revenue growth the last two years. While they've been "public", they've never had much money in the bank, surviving through $1M to $2M private placements every six months or year or so. For most of their history, they've been a penny stock, low volume, stock price under $1 and market cap well below $100M.

But they make real products, and have real sales. They are competent. Based on growing sales, they bought land near Porterville, CA a few years ago to build their US factory to take advantage of Buy USA incentives (something very important for sales to municipalities), and they built that factory and have it churning out buses now.

The only knock I have against them is that they aren't aggressive enough in terms of raising capital and doing step changes in production/sales. Yes, growing 100% per year is nothing to sneeze at, but they could do better with better capitalization. Having said that, they are indeed looking to do their biggest raise to date with a $35M step up IPO on Nasdaq, so maybe now's the time they'll start being more aggressive.

Here we go, GreenPower Motor is set to do its NASDAQ IPO in one month:

GreenPower Announces Launch of its U.S. Initial Public Offering

The *very* interesting thing about this IPO is that you can buy shares of it right now. It is publicly traded in Canada (GPV.V) and in the US on the OTC exchange (GPVRF). So here you have a chance to buy pre-IPO shares, kinda of. Anyways, once this sports a $20 or so share price (they are doing a 7-1 reverse split) and have a NASDAQ listing, I expect this to climb. I must say, I'm surprised that the shares are trading down slightly on this news.

Disclaimer: I've bought a position in GPVRF.
 
Here we go, GreenPower Motor is set to do its NASDAQ IPO in one month:

GreenPower Announces Launch of its U.S. Initial Public Offering

The *very* interesting thing about this IPO is that you can buy shares of it right now. It is publicly traded in Canada (GPV.V) and in the US on the OTC exchange (GPVRF). So here you have a chance to buy pre-IPO shares, kinda of. Anyways, once this sports a $20 or so share price (they are doing a 7-1 reverse split) and have a NASDAQ listing, I expect this to climb. I must say, I'm surprised that the shares are trading down slightly on this news.

Disclaimer: I've bought a position in GPVRF.

Just to keep blabbering about this stock, I think it is undergoing what is known as a "shareholder rotation". Look at its five year chart:

upload_2020-8-25_10-35-44.png


Basically, the long suffering shareholder who bought 2, 3, or 4 years ago, watching this company competently execute, but not able to raise any real money, are now selling into this huge volume and price rise. New buyers (like me), judge the company against the current ridiculous valuations other companies that have NOTHING (like NKLA), and think that the stock has a ways to climb from here. So even though we are buying at quite the premium from the long suffering shareholder entry points, we can still make outsized returns (at a risk, there is always a risk).

And today's price action is probably the true day traders locking in profits. I don't daytrade, so they can have their fun. I'm in for the medium term (they have to demonstrate they know how to deploy $35M properly before I'll be a long term investor).
 
  • Informative
Reactions: riverFox
I would think it does take the shine off Novonix. I've always been leery of companies that make pieces of battery cells and have the latest "great" technology. Battery cell technology is advancing way too rapidly and it is easy for companies to get caught out. It was like that Canadian graphite mine that had that great video (where the CEO was asking Elon to use their graphite as a supplier, NOU.V). It may be that natural graphite gets bypassed entirely going forward, and similarly, Novonix's technology might not matter.

Elon is probably going to not only talk about breakthroughs he has already achieved with the million mile battery, or multi million mile, if you listen to Novonix. I add a link below, but Elon will also discuss what he is working on in the future.

Tesla and other battery makers have been working on Silicon anodes for many year but it damages the battery because it expands and contracts by 400% every time you charge and discharge it. After 4-5 cycles, the battery is dead. They need to get a 300mile battery to 3300 cycles for it to last for 1million miles.

If you scroll to the bottom of this reach markets Meet the CEO link Dr Burns has run another webinar where he talks about the performance of Novonix's Puregraphite anode AND Single Crystal Cathode DPMG (Manufacturing Process) AND Novonix Electrolytes to get to 1.5million miles or more. (from the 13min 30secs). "We blow 1million miles out of the water"

Novonix (ASX: NVX) powering the renewable futures needs - News

Novonix also has a JV relationship with another student of Pr Dahn, Marc Obrovac who is constantly developing new battery materials and the new Dry Particle Microgranulation manufacturing process breakthrough that Pr Dahn was so excited about and most likely Tesla is looking to incorporate this process for Cathodes and Anode. It is truly extraordinary. Let alone the silicon infused graphite breakthrough Novonix is close to announcing in the next 2-3 months 9longer range).


Pr Marc Obrovac is working on beyond lithium ion batteries like sodium ion, magnesium ion, solid state, lithium metal and lithium air batteries. Novonix owns 100% of all breakthrough patents that Pr Obrovac's team at Dalhousie achieves.
 
I forgot to add that after 2 yrs of testing Novonix's PUREgraphite anode material with Panasonic/Sanyo, Novonix signed an MOU with them in January 2020, which we are all waiting for it to be converted into a supply agreement for Tesla. Most likely for Giga Nevada at 39GWh per annum, this battery plant alone would consume 39,000 tonnes per annum of graphite anode material.

https://i.ibb.co/tP3vg48/EFC19-C3-D-8772-481-A-BB00-7-E6479280552.jpg

Below are the profit calculations that I have put together (based on conservative Novonix ASX announcements for per tonne sale price and cost price) at different production volumes that I am using for my estimated share price.

Novonix is already up 460% in the last 3 months as these supply and royalty agreements are expected to be announced.

https://i.ibb.co/0JwvBSW/Puregraphi...s-Price-5k-Costs-and-10x-NPAT-Share-Price.png

US Admiral Robert Natter and ex Dow CEO Andrew Liveris are on the Board of Directors of Novonix. Novonix has stated in the media that expansion will be funded by US Govt loans since graphite is a strategic mineral.

https://i.ibb.co/CQdhsXM/B86-E0-EAD-44-A4-42-BF-8649-510518803-AD7.jpg

Admiral Robert J Natter USN (Ret.) - Novonix

Andrew N. Liveris AO - Novonix
 
Here we go, GreenPower Motor is set to do its NASDAQ IPO in one month:

GreenPower Announces Launch of its U.S. Initial Public Offering

The *very* interesting thing about this IPO is that you can buy shares of it right now. It is publicly traded in Canada (GPV.V) and in the US on the OTC exchange (GPVRF). So here you have a chance to buy pre-IPO shares, kinda of. Anyways, once this sports a $20 or so share price (they are doing a 7-1 reverse split) and have a NASDAQ listing, I expect this to climb. I must say, I'm surprised that the shares are trading down slightly on this news.

Disclaimer: I've bought a position in GPVRF.
Green Power motor company most likely will become another customer of Novonix's battery materials at some point, Good Luck to them, the EV Van, light truck and pickup market is perfect segment to tap into given the torque characteristics of EVs.
 
So, GreenPower Motor's price has stabilized at a slight discount or equal to anticipated offering price. They announced an offering price at $18-$22/share after the 7-1 reverse stock split. As I type this, it is trading up at $2.60/share (GPVRF), so that equates to 2.6 x 7 = $18.20 per share. The big unknown that the market is discounting right now is whether or not they'll be able to place $35M worth of shares on this when they start the roadshow in a couple of weeks. Personally, I think it is a slam dunk. There are a bunch of mutual funds and other institutional investors that cannot buy GPVRF on the open market right now because it is currently just listed as either a Canadian stock or OTC, neither of which many institutional shareholders can own. Not to mention that buying a $1M or more position right now would push the price around a lot (even at these new volumes, a $1M order is very big for this stock).

My guess is that this stock is oversubscribed and goes out at $22/share, which is equivalent to $3.14 for GPVRF. If I'm right, buying now would net you a 20% gain in a month and then see where it goes from there. If I'm wrong, then this stock will bop around its current price for a while until the company shows it can continue growing at 100% per year or so.

Except for Nikola, the stock prices for other speculative EV manufacturers seems to have calm down a bit (I'm leaving Tesla out of this since they aren't speculative anymore, they are an established growth company). We could be nearing a top of EV hysteria, and things will go back to normal. Maybe.

BTW, anyone else buy GPVRF, or am I alone here? :)
 
  • Informative
Reactions: riverFox
So, GreenPower Motor's price has stabilized at a slight discount or equal to anticipated offering price. They announced an offering price at $18-$22/share after the 7-1 reverse stock split. As I type this, it is trading up at $2.60/share (GPVRF), so that equates to 2.6 x 7 = $18.20 per share. The big unknown that the market is discounting right now is whether or not they'll be able to place $35M worth of shares on this when they start the roadshow in a couple of weeks. Personally, I think it is a slam dunk. There are a bunch of mutual funds and other institutional investors that cannot buy GPVRF on the open market right now because it is currently just listed as either a Canadian stock or OTC, neither of which many institutional shareholders can own. Not to mention that buying a $1M or more position right now would push the price around a lot (even at these new volumes, a $1M order is very big for this stock).

My guess is that this stock is oversubscribed and goes out at $22/share, which is equivalent to $3.14 for GPVRF. If I'm right, buying now would net you a 20% gain in a month and then see where it goes from there. If I'm wrong, then this stock will bop around its current price for a while until the company shows it can continue growing at 100% per year or so.

Except for Nikola, the stock prices for other speculative EV manufacturers seems to have calm down a bit (I'm leaving Tesla out of this since they aren't speculative anymore, they are an established growth company). We could be nearing a top of EV hysteria, and things will go back to normal. Maybe.

BTW, anyone else buy GPVRF, or am I alone here? :)

Lol I just bought some this morning, might add more if it drops. Thank you for the information.
 
So, GreenPower Motor's price has stabilized at a slight discount or equal to anticipated offering price. They announced an offering price at $18-$22/share after the 7-1 reverse stock split. As I type this, it is trading up at $2.60/share (GPVRF), so that equates to 2.6 x 7 = $18.20 per share. The big unknown that the market is discounting right now is whether or not they'll be able to place $35M worth of shares on this when they start the roadshow in a couple of weeks. Personally, I think it is a slam dunk. There are a bunch of mutual funds and other institutional investors that cannot buy GPVRF on the open market right now because it is currently just listed as either a Canadian stock or OTC, neither of which many institutional shareholders can own. Not to mention that buying a $1M or more position right now would push the price around a lot (even at these new volumes, a $1M order is very big for this stock).

My guess is that this stock is oversubscribed and goes out at $22/share, which is equivalent to $3.14 for GPVRF. If I'm right, buying now would net you a 20% gain in a month and then see where it goes from there. If I'm wrong, then this stock will bop around its current price for a while until the company shows it can continue growing at 100% per year or so.

Except for Nikola, the stock prices for other speculative EV manufacturers seems to have calm down a bit (I'm leaving Tesla out of this since they aren't speculative anymore, they are an established growth company). We could be nearing a top of EV hysteria, and things will go back to normal. Maybe.

BTW, anyone else buy GPVRF, or am I alone here? :)
I did, based on your recommendation.