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What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
- Start date
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Gotcha, so that's the inherent risk buying pre-SPAC merger, we are all betting on a big run up, and that they don't dick us over during the share allotment post-merger.
I can wait a few hours for you to finish your analysis.
I’ve been looking into Bionano Genomics for the past couple of weeks. Here’s what I’ve gathered.
BNGO exploded from 50 cents per share to over $10 per share over a few weeks in Dec 2020- Jan 2021 following discoveries made with their Saphyr system. They issued a slew of press releases, publications, and presentations at scientific meetings. I think their most prominent advance was a genetic screening method to identify people that are most likely to suffer complications from COVID 19 infections.
Bionano Saphyr system is an optical genome mapping tool that measures structural variations in linearized DNA. It works as follows: DNA is isolated and then linearized and then fluorescent-tagged with enzymes. When illuminated under UV light, the tagged regions of the DNA molecules glow green. The tagged DNA is deposited on special chips that are scanned with the Saphyr system. Genetic abnormalities such as deletions, repeats, and inversions can be seen optically with this system.
Optical genome mapping by Bionano is much faster and 1/10 the cost of common genetic tests. Moreover, it is better at revealing large-scale structural variations in DNA than molecular analysis tools. It is being marketed as a research screening tool.
Issues:
right now, Bionano’s revenue is low compared to its market cap, although revenue growth is good (sound familiar?)
Saphyr is not yet approved by the FDA as a clinical screening tool. Bionano has apparently hired someone to work with the FDA on that issue
Investor information on Bionano site is thin
Bionano just raised a ton of capital after the stock price appreciation- carrying out two different rounds just a few weeks apart. They seem to be well funded now with relatively low debt. The stock price held up well against this dilution and the company is derisked in the near term.
There’s a lot of hype and froth surrounding the company and it’s hard to find serious analysis. YouTube for example is full of stock pumping channels shouting that BNGO will zoom to $30 or $100 this year etc with no apparent basis.
Everyone is hoping/expecting Ark Genomics to take a position in BNGO, which would obviously be an incredible catalyst for the stock. Hasn’t happened yet, but BNGO did feature in Ark G’s latest research tome as the leader in optical genome mapping.
Owing to the explosion in the stock price, the IV is quite high (over 200). I sold $11 and $12 strike puts expiring on 2/19 for $2.60. If I’m assigned, I’ll have shares with cost basis around $9. BNGO closed at $12.10 today. If you take a long position, consider selling covered calls for hefty premiums. March 19 2021 $15 strike calls are going for $2.80. Seems like a good return for one month investment, so long as BNGO doesn’t crash.
Overall, I consider BNGO a risky bet worth a modest investment.
Cheers
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i know with Romeo power the price shot up after the merger announcement and continued rising through the merger then tanked immediately after. Look at RMO over the last 3 months you can see the day where the merger was announced and then the day the merger completed (big spike then drop). It is just hard to compare with Lucid/CCIV since it has a lot more hype, a lot of folks see Lucid as a legitimate EV player.
it was real hard for me not to dump a bunch more of my stock today when it got up around $35. To make 200+% guaranteed on rumors is tough to pass up. If the deal doesn’t happen this thing drops back to $10 or so pretty quickly IMO but it’s hard to know how high it goes if confirmed.
i was in on it at $2.50 (see earlier in this thread) but unfortunately sold at $6. I really wasn’t familiar enough with the technology to know if it was good or not. You’re summary was consistent with what I’ve read, could be a great stock of the technology is as good as advertised and gets all the approvals.
pz1975
Active Member
For CCIV, a warrant allows one to exercise 1 share of CCIV and an exercised call allows one to buy 100 shares of CCIV. After a merger any changes to share allocation for warrants, common shares and options should move in lock-step under a new ticker symbol. I can’t see how they could become separated since they are for the same thing right now.
If the share price goes down for whatever reason (they decide to merge with NKLA instead of Lucid for example), then with my strategy I still pocketed the $1.75 per share and own the warrants for free (which still have some value unless the SP goes crazy low). So worst case I make $1.75 per share (if warrants are worth $0), and best case I make $27.75 per share (SP above $37.50 or $40).
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
As an additional data point,
I bought CCIV ~$15 and am holding for now.
The warrants angle @pz1975 has written about seems interesting, but I don't own any.
Some info about them:
How to Use Warrants to Boost Your Returns
Have a few questions about the CCIV warrants:
How come they trade so low relative to the stock price as of now ?
When would we most likely see significant upside on them ? (ie post- merger announcement, or some locked in period thereafter)
I bought CCIV ~$15 and am holding for now.
The warrants angle @pz1975 has written about seems interesting, but I don't own any.
Some info about them:
How to Use Warrants to Boost Your Returns
Have a few questions about the CCIV warrants:
How come they trade so low relative to the stock price as of now ?
When would we most likely see significant upside on them ? (ie post- merger announcement, or some locked in period thereafter)
I thought this was some good information on ABML that some people here would appreciate. Coincidently, it looks like he pulled some info from posts in this thread.
Now I wish I got in when it was first mentioned here instead of at the $2.6-$3.2 stock price. I believe it was $1 when someone posted about it here. Wanted to do my own DD and by the time I got around to it the SP had already jumped up.
Now I wish I got in when it was first mentioned here instead of at the $2.6-$3.2 stock price. I believe it was $1 when someone posted about it here. Wanted to do my own DD and by the time I got around to it the SP had already jumped up.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Just as I was researching CCIV warrants more, the price of CCIV fell off a cliff.
Anyone got any news? Couldn't find anything on Google.
Anyone got any news? Couldn't find anything on Google.
GrandEnigma
Member
Apparently talks are still on going and a deal is not imminent. Doesn't sound like bad news to me.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
pz1975
Active Member
CCIV seems to rise and drop on rumors. After a 30% up day yesterday on basically no news, a 5% down day is probably predictable when there is some soft, unsubstantiated news about a delay in the merger.
As an aside, the arbitrage trade I described yesterday can be done no matter what the underlying SP is as long as the warrant value stays well below its true intrinsic value (it is still $5.25 below as the time of writing). I win no matter if the SP/warrants go up or down (profit way more if it goes up of course).
As an aside, the arbitrage trade I described yesterday can be done no matter what the underlying SP is as long as the warrant value stays well below its true intrinsic value (it is still $5.25 below as the time of writing). I win no matter if the SP/warrants go up or down (profit way more if it goes up of course).
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