What other tech stock to consider?

[30seconds]

I'm buying Relypsa (RLYP). Their drug was approved last week and stock dropped because of some misinterpretation regarding the label. Current market cap is about $600m, stock is trading at $16 and all analyst price targets are at least $36. Even though the drug was approved, launch is in Jan. There is a competitor coming, but I think Relypsa has a better side effect profile.

I think the stock can easily go to $32. The low was last Thursday just under $12 and it was trading about $20 around mid-Oct.

 

[Lump]

Mobileye reports Q3 results before the bell on Tuesday followed by conference call, Tesla autopilot likely discussed.

Mobileye Schedules Its Third Quarter 2015 Financial Results Release for Tuesday, November 3, 2015 - Yahoo Finance

 

[Cattledog]

Mobileye reports Q3 results before the bell on Tuesday followed by conference call, Tesla autopilot likely discussed.

Mobileye Schedules Its Third Quarter 2015 Financial Results Release for Tuesday, November 3, 2015 - Yahoo Finance

Listening to the call, crushing it. TSLA Autopilot got a short mention at the start of the call.

CEO - Autonomous driving is a future Megatrend...More than 80% of autos will have at least one semi-autonomous system in 5-8 years...8 cameras will likely be the number required for fully autonomous driving (imagine this will be a hardware upgrade on S and X in the next couple years.) Vision systems are the dominant feature of autonomous driving. (Elon validated again when he said a few years ago cameras were more important than Google's LIDAR.)

CEO - Tesla lane-keeping assist is best in class. However some drivers are abusing the system by driving too fast. Tesla willing to push the envelope faster and more aggressively than any other OEM.

CEO - Shift from passive to active driver assist features puts greater emphasis on all OEM's having the 'best' system. We are the best system.

CEO - Working closely with Tesla because they are excited about our efforts. That Tesla's are connected makes learning easier. Will make the cars fully autonomous when Tesla integrates the 8-camera suite and pushes out the software update.

Andrea James - Tesla's deep learning - is it MBLY's system? CEO - No, self-learning is part of the TSLA system. We have a much larger fleet of cars (every OEM) where we are using that data set. (This is big - Tesla's 'self-learning' appears to be internal and unique.)

 

[Lump]

Listening to the call, crushing it. TSLA Autopilot got a short mention at the start of the call.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Earnings/Mobileye+(MBLY)+Tops+Q3+EPS+by+2c/11027648.html

Mobileye (NYSE: MBLY) reported Q3 EPS of $0.15, $0.02 better than the analyst estimate of $0.13. Revenue for the quarter came in at $70.6 million versus the consensus estimate of $67.36 million.

raises FY15 adjusted EPS view to 46c-47c from 44c-45c

*Some Tesla Drivers abusing system (driving too fast)
*Multiple cameras next year, 360°

 

[krnshh]

Just listening in now. He pretty much invariably confirmed that Tesla is next to have the 8 camera system and that will help enable full autonomous driving. So next up will be a hardware upgrade to 8 camera system and then software updates all the way.

On Deep learning and Auto pilot is self improving. Mobileye is not part of the self learning. Mobileye have their own massive database that builds on a wider scope of scenes, scenarios and geographical roads and is much bigger than Tesla's. They have data from all automakers as opposed to Tesla.

 

[Cattledog]

Just listening in now. He pretty much invariably confirmed that Tesla is next to have the 8 camera system and that will help enable full autonomous driving. So next up will be a hardware upgrade to 8 camera system and then software updates all the way.

On Deep learning and Auto pilot is self improving. Mobileye is not part of the self learning. Mobileye have their own massive database that builds on a wider scope of scenes, scenarios and geographical roads and is much bigger than Tesla's. They have data from all automakers as opposed to Tesla.

I thought he said they are working with 2 OEM's right now on an 8-camera system. Not sure is TSLA is one of the two (makes sense though, he said they are the most aggressive.)

 

[Drax7]

Mobileye has a sustainable competitive advantage
and massive market potential.
This calls for a massive market cap in time.

 

[Lump]

Mobileye's Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

http://seekingalpha.com/article/363...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

 

[Cosmacelf]

Mobileye has a sustainable competitive advantage
and massive market potential.
This calls for a massive market cap in time.

The only problem is that they already have a massive market cap...

 

[uselesslogin]

OK guys SolarEdge (SEDG) reports today. Enphase had a bad report yesterday due to increased competition. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but that "competition" is basically SolarEdge. So today SEDG is getting hammered to to the bad report from Enphase but they were the cause of that bad report.

Right now SEDG just had a tick at $16.85. Their EPS last quarter was $0.24. The analyst estimate for the FY ending June 2016 is an EPS of $1.40. So the forward PE for FY 16 is 12. 12! And there is every reason to expect a great report today. This one seems a little crazy and if the stock continues to get beat up I'll probably be adding a bit more throughout the day. As long as they beat expectations of $0.30 I'm pretty sure this will be up significantly tomorrow.

- - - Updated - - -

Here is what sums the situation up:

 

[Cosmacelf]

It'll be interesting to see what the market does with Solaredge. I'm expecting a great quarterly report, but the market is anti solar right now, so who knows. Is it possible the market has no clue that Solaredge is eating Enphase lunch? And that their revenues comes from more than the US? I guess anythings possible...

 

[Drax7]

It'll be interesting to see what the market does with Solaredge. I'm expecting a great quarterly report, but the market is anti solar right now, so who knows. Is it possible the market has no clue that Solaredge is eating Enphase lunch? And that their revenues comes from more than the US? I guess anythings possible...

most solar companies do not have pricing power, so unless they are the low cost producer,
its hard for them to have a competitive advantage. My reason for disqualifying them.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Solaredge does have some pricing power. Their architecture is unique in the industry and better than the string solar inverters and enphase. The architecture also uniquely works the best with Tesla Powerwall.

 

[Drax7]

The only problem is that they already have a massive market cap...

it is massive for a nascent situation.

Considering 80 million cars are produced annually.
If Mobileye can get 25 million customers, at $40 profit per customer,
then we are taking 1 billion dollars profit.
with a 30 multiple we are taking minimum of 30 billion within 2 years.

 

[Ocelot]

Picked up a few SEDG, but must say, it always worries me to see a such a downtick the day of earnings, as I usually figure something has leaked.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I bought some sedg as well. They have investor presentations scheduled in the near term. You usually wouldn't do that unless the future looked good.

 

[Johan]

Well done, SEDG up 10% in aftermarket.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I listened to the SEDG conference call. The newer, higher efficiency, lower cost, inverter line based on HD Wave technology will be rolled out across all product lines by Q3. Sounds like 2016 will be a barn burner of a year for them. Considering the US is about 70% of their market, everyone will be wondering what 2017 brings with the expiration of the ITC.

 

[hcsharp]

most solar companies do not have pricing power, so unless they are the low cost producer,
its hard for them to have a competitive advantage. My reason for disqualifying them.

You were commenting on SEDG but I disagree with your assessment. They currently have the best technology for rooftop solar inverters and aren't comparable to the commodity producers and installers in the industry.

I listened to the SEDG conference call. The newer, higher efficiency, lower cost, inverter line based on HD Wave technology will be rolled out across all product lines by Q3. Sounds like 2016 will be a barn burner of a year for them. Considering the US is about 70% of their market, everyone will be wondering what 2017 brings with the expiration of the ITC.

I added to my SEDG holdings today. My initial investment was at a higher price shortly after their IPO. I invested because I was using their equipment in my solar system and was very impressed with it. Nobody knows where it will go but if they can keep producing technology breakthroughs like they have been then they have some potential.

 

[allz]

For me this Q3 has been harmful. SCTY dropped and ENPH dropped. Just made my "plans" to be extended to.. say 1 or 2 extra years till any sufficient gains.