I just think it is a quick way to illustrate how much future growth is already built in to the current TSLA valuation.
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What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
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I just think it is a quick way to illustrate how much future growth is already built in to the current TSLA valuation.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Say it with me three times: Tesla is not just a car company. Tesla is not just a car company. Tesla is not just a car company.
So I decided to load up on some more ABML...wish I had the funds available yesterday to buy the dip. This is hopefully a long term play so hopefully todays price will seem cheap in 5 years.
It’s almost as if I said exactly that but you didn’t read it.
But that couldn’t be, because people always read the original post someone responded to before making snarky replies right?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I did read your post. Maybe I misunderstand you position. "Everything has to go right over the next 5 years to justify the current valuation". Let's assume they continue on the same path they've been on for many years - this is after all the most likely isn't it - in that case do you believe TSLA should trade at $800-900 in 5 years or should it trade at $800-900 now?
Not even considering other revenue sources...
Do this for how many vehicles will be doing in 2026.
Then break down how much profit comes from each part of the process and compare to others.
2021 does not matter in valuation of growth companies. Just math and game theory
I’m saying that there is no way to justify the current valuation based on current sales for Tesla products, so there must be the assumption of tremendous growth built in to the current value.
That’s neither here nor there in regards to what you said to me though. The part you didn’t choose to keep in my quote clearly shows that I do not consider Tesla to just be a car company which is why I didn’t like your response.
It is probably my bad for commenting on the Tesla valuation in this particular thread to begin with... but it was in direct response to another poster considering dumping a bunch of cash into 3 stocks were Tesla was one of them so it’s not like I brought it up out of the blue. Either way, this thread is not the place for debates about Tesla valuation so I will leave it at that.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I agree this is not the right thread, so this will also be my last response. The way I see it of course future potential is baked in the stock price, which is why the chart you posted is so irrelevant because you are comparing Tesla to other companies who are currently only making money per car they produce and sell and only ever in the futre will make money from every car the produce and sell. So after reading you response I still don't understand why you found it relevant to post that chart at all - because basically you're saying it's a meaningless metric, and I also don't understand on what other basis (because you basically admit that the market cap per car sold metric is meaningsless) you think the current valuation is wrong. But hey that's what makes a market isn't it - different players estimating the fair value of a stock differently at any given time.
I am just some clown on the internet that trades in his spare time, so take this with a grain of salt, but what kind of short-medium term upside do you think TSLA has at this point? It seems like everything has to go right over the next 5 years to justify the current valuation. I love my car, love what TSLA does and I get that TSLA is well positioned for the "green" era with a lead on other companies for solar, battery, EV, and other tech but when I see charts like this I get nervous.
Full disclosure. I sold all but 1 of my TSLA shares at $875. I wanted to still be a shareholder so I had to keep one but I think that the stock can't keep growing at the kind of rate is has.
Short answer: everything will go right.
Longer answer: First, that chart is misleading since the other manufacturers sell cheaper cars than Tesla does. Second, all those manufacturers are struggling to make cheap EVs, and more importantly, in volume. So it isn’t only that Tesla will do well,
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I see Coinbase is going public Coinbase Global to Go Public Through a Direct Listing
Edit: Probably better discussed in the Crypto thread Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread
Edit: Probably better discussed in the Crypto thread Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread
Never heard of them, but I've never heard of ABML until I came to this thread, their website is crap, I cannot access any financials.
interested in the opinion of others here.
So, maybe like others on here, I'm a Patreon supporter of The Limiting Factor. Jordan has started releasing his vids to us before the general public and this most recent one was all about how he got into his channel and what's on the horizon content wise. It got me thinking, so I emailed him to see if he knew about ABML and he said it has definitely caught his attention and will mention it in the salt + clay video of his.
All good things!
All good things!
D Unit
Member
I’m long term on SENS. I’ve accumulated 12,000 shares so far and recently bought some at $2.40. There are still so many foreseeable catalysts left. I have other speculation plays in CCIV, ACTC, SBE, BNGO, BTWN, and PSTH, but my favorite play considering upside is still SENS. Let’s get rich people.
So, maybe like others on here, I'm a Patreon supporter of The Limiting Factor. Jordan has started releasing his vids to us before the general public and this most recent one was all about how he got into his channel and what's on the horizon content wise. It got me thinking, so I emailed him to see if he knew about ABML and he said it has definitely caught his attention and will mention it in the salt + clay video of his.
All good things!
finished it for you. One day..,post COVID, market cap 3b, wherever the party is remind me to tell u my run for the roses story.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
This is not quite right. MP materials only produces REE concentrate, not refined rare earths. All of the concentrate produced by MP is sold to refineries in China that produce purified REE oxides and metals.
MP has raised capital to build an REE separation facility over the next couple of years. By comparison, Lynas has been producing refined rare earths for the better part of a decade. Over that time, Lynas survived a long period of weak REE prices, developed new specialized products, lowered costs of production, and established a strong customer base.
MP is a potential challenger to Lynas sort of like the Porsche Taycan was a Tesla killer. Experience and cost of production matter quite a lot in the REE business. It’s important to note that MP is built from the ashes of Molycorp, which invested hundreds of millions of dollars in an REE refinery at the Mountain Pass mine, only to go bankrupt when REE prices fell in 2013. Before that, Molycorp stock went parabolic in speculative fervor when China cut off REE exports to Japan in 2011 in a territorial dispute.
MP Materials is a high profile company as the only REE mine in the US and has done very well building political support and investor interest. It might very well succeed this time around, now that REE prices have recovered and global demand is increasing every year. But as MP is still pre-production, their future profitability in REE refining is pretty uncertain
Overall, I see more upside potential in Lynas stock.
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