What other tech stock to consider?

[dakh]

This is not quite right. MP materials only produces REE concentrate, not refined rare earths. All of the concentrate produced by MP is sold to refineries in China that produce purified REE oxides and metals.

MP has raised capital to build an REE separation facility over the next couple of years. By comparison, Lynas has been producing refined rare earths for the better part of a decade. Over that time, Lynas survived a long period of weak REE prices, developed new specialized products, lowered costs of production, and established a strong customer base.

MP is a potential challenger to Lynas sort of like the Porsche Taycan was a Tesla killer. Experience and cost of production matter quite a lot in the REE business. It’s important to note that MP is built from the ashes of Molycorp, which invested hundreds of millions of dollars in an REE refinery at the Mountain Pass mine, only to go bankrupt when REE prices fell in 2013. Before that, Molycorp stock went parabolic in speculative fervor when China cut off REE exports to Japan in 2011 in a territorial dispute.

MP Materials is a high profile company as the only REE mine in the US and has done very well building political support and investor interest. It might very well succeed this time around, now that REE prices have recovered and global demand is increasing every year. But as MP is still pre-production, their future profitability in REE refining is pretty uncertain

Overall, I see more upside potential in Lynas stock.

Super, thanks a lot for offering your research. I have a silly question: I see the average volume for OTC ticker is ~300000, does this mean I have to trickle my buys over multiple days if I wanted to get a low 6-figure investment in? Seems totally unreasonable but just wanted to make sure I'm not stepping on a rake.

Last ER transcript here

benchmark pricing was fairly kind to us, but I think that more importantly, it reflects the strength of the key Nd segments into which we sell, particularly new automotive and by that, we're talking about the plug hybrid and electric vehicles. And I know that many investors are looking at Lynas as an excellent way to gain exposure to this electric vehicle and new energy Semantic of course continued growth in renewables, particularly in wind power and electronics.

They are operating at 75% capacity in Malaysia due to both market uncertainty and COVID restrictions in the country. But overall they seem to be in a happy place just because prices went up and they had the biggest revenues in their history so far.

 

[MP3Mike]

Super, thanks a lot for offering your research. I have a silly question: I see the average volume for OTC ticker is ~300000, does this mean I have to trickle my buys over multiple days if I wanted to get a low 6-figure investment in? Seems totally unreasonable but just wanted to make sure I'm not stepping on a rake.

You probably need to spread it out at least a little as that would be ~10% of the daily volume. Of course, you can just try it out with some smallish orders and see how much things move.

 

[JustMe]

Super, thanks a lot for offering your research. I have a silly question: I see the average volume for OTC ticker is ~300000, does this mean I have to trickle my buys over multiple days if I wanted to get a low 6-figure investment in? Seems totally unreasonable but just wanted to make sure I'm not stepping on a rake.

Not a bad idea, tbh. The overseas share price pretty much mirrors the Australian market price by the end of each day.

The share price fell after good news this week so it seems like a good time to buy.

They are operating at 75% capacity in Malaysia due to both market uncertainty and COVID restrictions in the country. But overall they seem to be in a happy place just because prices went up and they had the biggest revenues in their history so far.

Yes - you can probably tell from the transcript that the CEO is very measured and strategic about running their operation to avoid boom and bust cycles. Steady as she goes under any weather.

Good luck

 

[Brn2Run]

I have had a fantastic short ride with ABML. Have sold some, but not all. ABML havent scaled up yet, that is the question mark I think. They may have a deal with Tesla when everything is up and running.

I believe more in AQMS - Aqua Metals, as they have a finished product, separating lead from acid batteries, but also lithium-ion.
They have a small "plant" up and running. They have patented their process, and will now go out to other recyclers and sell their solution, (which can save/make them a lot of money), and AQMS will take royalties from the production.

Market cap is one third of ABML, so Either one is too expensive or.. I believe both are cheap but AQMS have the whole package clear, and ready to go. They also have several partners, as BASF and others. aquametals.com - lot of info read, financials, video of the process, etc.

 

[JRP3]

I'm not finding anything about lithium ion recycling, only lead acid. Do you have some links?

 

[ckessel]

Regarding Senseonics, I talked to a coworker that does his own close loop continuous glucose monitoring system. So, he's absolutely in their target demographic. Here's what he had to say:

I'm a user of Dexcom's continuous glucose monitoring products, and from my point of view, having to go into see a health care professional to have the sensor changed out every 3 months is less convenient than swapping my self-insertable dexcom sensor every week. It looks like they have happy customers, but I'm not sure they're likely to take much market share over Dexcom with the products they have on the market now. What will be make-or-break in my eyes is who they partner with for insulin delivery as the diabetes world moves towards closed-loop systems. Dexcom has announced a couple of partners in that area already, namely Tandem and Insulet, who already are very well established insulin pump manufacturers. Senseonics announced partnerships with Roche, who makes the accu-check Solo, which is not as popular as Insulet's omnipod currently, and with TypeZero, who were acquired by Dexcom. Closed loop, where the insulin pump adjusts your insulin delivery based on readings coming from the CGM, is 100% the future. I'd be weary of any one in the diabetes management space that isn't making big moves there.

So, some food for thought. I was going to throw a bunch of money at Senseonics, but now I'm trying to understand more about the pump and closed loop space.

Edit: Senseonics current product is a 3 month. The 6 month product is the one awaiting FDA clearance. They have plans for a 1 year monitor in 2023. I can't find much of anything about integration with a pump, other than Roche one mentioned by my coworker and that agreement might have expired literally today (Jan 31st) based on digging through their published materials in the investor site. Trying to find something indicating where they have a pump agreement with someone at this moment.

 

[ckessel]

Oh, the coworker also mentioned this regarding diabetic close loop systems, but Tidepool is a 501(c) non profit, so not an investment opportunity

There's two diy apps. "Loop" for iOS and "AndroidAPS" for android. They share efforts around algorithm development and decrypting the wireless communications used to send commands to pumps. A company called Tidepool snatched up a lot of the main people behind Loop, and are working on getting the app FDA approved. Their partnered with Dexcom, Insulet, and Medtronic in an official capacity too. That's a name to watch for sure.

 

[Brn2Run]

I'm not finding anything about lithium ion recycling, only lead acid. Do you have some links?

Stock Market Insights | Seeking Alpha

I think it was an interview with CEO, Ill se if I can find it. Several articles in link.

 

[Brn2Run]

From the article on top left, in the link:

Initially, when the company went public, the story was recycling lead acid batteries. Its total addressable market is now much larger with AQMS using its technology for Lithium-ion battery recycling.

Recycling lithium-ion batteries another opportunity not baked in the stock price.

As Steve said on the most recent earnings call:

"And there's also an interesting thing going on in the Tahoe Reno industrial center area which is there are a fair number of companies trying to move forward with how do we recycle lithium batteries. Because remember you could recycle lead acid batteries and Aqua Metals improves the way that you recycle lead acid batteries through AquaRefining greatly… And obviously Tahoe Reno industrial center has a large lithium player with Tesla being down the road. And there are some companies that are moving forward in that area and see this as a strategic hub for potentially creating an ecosystem."

 

[JRP3]

Seems as if they haven't yet tried to use their process on lithium batteries so it's more of a theoretical at this point.

"We see Aqua Metals is even having an opportunity to look at how we could work with not only lead acid battery recyclers, but recyclers of other types of batteries and that's another flavor of a possibility and potential for acquisition of a plant of that nature and size and location."

 

[UCF3]

I recommend having a look at Lynas Rare Earths, which is the only major producer of refined rare earths outside of China. LYC on the ASX or LYSCF in the OTC market. I’ve been invested in this company since 2012.

I expect the share price to double within 12 months and 4-5x by 2025. Even higher multiples are possible in the event of a global supply shortage arising from exponential growth of EV sales, wind power deployment etc. AND/OR a trade war with China - who has repeatedly threatened to restrict REE exports to the US and others.

Lynas is profitable, well managed, and is growing together with the increasing global demand for REEs. Its share price has been suppressed for years due to sovereign risk relating to a hostile government in Malaysia, where their processing facility is located. This risk is abating for two reasons. First, there has been a change of government in Malaysia and operations are no longer threatened. Second, Lynas is building two new processing facilities in Australia and Texas. In fact, the US military will help to fund the plant in Texas, as announced last week.

Lynas is currently a penny stock, traded over the counter overseas. I expect that to change this year, as the share price has risen to $4/share in the US. It’s very likely to be uplisted to the Nasdaq when it reaches $5, greatly boosting its profile and widening the pool of potential investors.

Link to Lynas’ latest QR below.

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-quarterly-activities-report.5876905/?post_id=50524441

Cheers

DOD Announces Rare Earth Element Award to Strengthen Domestic Industrial Base > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Release
nice spike today

 

[dakh]

DOD Announces Rare Earth Element Award to Strengthen Domestic Industrial Base > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Release
nice spike today

That wasn't me buying lol. I bought a little earlier than the pop. Will buy another batch tomorrow.

 

[Discoducky]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

After Steel Dynamics seemed to win a contract to supply Tesla with steel for CT, I started looking into their financials and I liked what I saw. Bought 500 shares last month and 500 more today as I didn't realize they have quite a nice little dividend. I've been in Tesla stock so long that I forgot about dividends. With 500 shares the dividend was $125

Quarterly Div / Yield
0.25 / 2.86%

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

After Steel Dynamics seemed to win a contract to supply Tesla with steel for CT, I started looking into their financials and I liked what I saw. Bought 500 shares last month and 500 more today as I didn't realize they have quite a nice little dividend. I've been in Tesla stock so long that I forgot about dividends. With 500 shares the dividend was $125

Quarterly Div / Yield
0.25 / 2.86%
View attachment 633073

Nice company. Kind of a reminder of how spoiled we are in this hyper growth market.

 

[ckessel]

After Steel Dynamics seemed to win a contract to supply Tesla with steel for CT, I started looking into their financials and I liked what I saw. Bought 500 shares last month and 500 more today as I didn't realize they have quite a nice little dividend. I've been in Tesla stock so long that I forgot about dividends. With 500 shares the dividend was $125

Quarterly Div / Yield
0.25 / 2.86%
View attachment 633073

No knock on them as a company, but what's you're theory as to growth?

They touched $50 in 2018, so I suppose that's a reasonable target in the next year or two which would be a nice investment. However, mostly their stock has been pretty lackluster in it's progression over the last few years. Not necessarily sure why it would be set to grow now. Yes, a Tesla contract is good as it's with a growing company, but net steel usage seems likely to decline as far as the auto industry is concerned as net auto sales are likely to decline. Do they have good prospects for growth outside the auto industry?

 

[gene]

Nice to see THCB (which is an existing, producing, battery pack mfg SPAC) rise 58% today. IPO may be announced tomorrow. NGA, ACTC, CIIC on the rise as well.

 

[Zloy]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

After Steel Dynamics seemed to win a contract to supply Tesla with steel for CT, I started looking into their financials and I liked what I saw. Bought 500 shares last month and 500 more today as I didn't realize they have quite a nice little dividend. I've been in Tesla stock so long that I forgot about dividends. With 500 shares the dividend was $125

Quarterly Div / Yield
0.25 / 2.86%
View attachment 633073

I've looked at their financials after the Cybertruck rumor which led me to buy some STLD. It's no tech / super growth stock but I figured it's a good alternative to keeping some spare cash.

 

[Brn2Run]

Seems as if they haven't yet tried to use their process on lithium batteries so it's more of a theoretical at this point.

"We see Aqua Metals is even having an opportunity to look at how we could work with not only lead acid battery recyclers, but recyclers of other types of batteries and that's another flavor of a possibility and potential for acquisition of a plant of that nature and size and location."

I think they have some kind of plan and know something about those metals also. I have both ABML and AQMS as to cover the recycling business. Think its a great chance at least one of them grows big.

Anybody have other companies to suggest?

 

[golfcart]

What are y'all doing with your CCIV shares? I just sold 25% of my shares at $29 premarket. Given my entry price of ~$12.75 I couldn't pass up 120% profit based on rumors. It probably is a $50+ stock if the Lucid rumors are confirmed but I bet it dips again before we hear anything concrete... any thoughts?

 

[UltradoomY]

What are y'all doing with your CCIV shares? I just sold 25% of my shares at $29 premarket. Given my entry price of ~$12.75 I couldn't pass up 120% profit based on rumors. It probably is a $50+ stock if the Lucid rumors are confirmed but I bet it dips again before we hear anything concrete... any thoughts?

I am letting my shares ride - HODL and all.
They have (not officially) confirmed the merger and that it is just delayed. I think that when it does happen, it continues a steady climb.
If it see saws 30% up and down every week I am ok with that.
I am only playing with 1k shares, so its kind of a lotto ticket at this point.
(not advise.....)