Wow, there is a ton of variance. I'm jealous of the mugs and jackets? Some people got jackets?!
Our first Model S pick up was way back when in the dark ages, before we'd even had the option for a test drive, and there was no swag to be had. Though another pickup scheduled for the same day had a balloon tied to the side mirror because it was the new owner's birthday, and I thought that was sweet.
When we finalized for our upgraded Model S, our "owner advisor" said he was authorized to give us a certain dollar amount of swag. We didn't try to push back- it wasn't enough for a jacket (or the loot list some people got) but we picked up a gift for a family member (we're trying to influence the next generation) and it was nice to be able to do that. Of course, they didn't have the mugs, or I would have seriously campaigned for them. Different locations may have either goodie bags stored or a dollar amount from the merchandise stocked in the showroom (and staff may adhere to that with different stringencies).
When we picked up (Dedham, MA) our new key fobs were in the Maumee leather sleeves, which they sell for $30 each, so I think that's pretty respectable in the swag department. We did get umbrellas at a different event, and those were about expected freebie quality, so I wouldn't feel too left out if you don't score one (unless they have different versions). If they decide to screen a Tesla logo on a nice gustbuster style umbrella, I'd pay for it. But y'know, they're Californian, so I understand their confusion about the umbrella concept. I'd covet the pin just because it's one thing I don't see available for purchase anymore.