When do you think the 2170 battery comes to MX and MS?

[dhanson865]

The Model 3 is announced to run on the 30% more efficient 2170 batteries. This could mean a significant weight reduction for the Model X and Model S at the same capacity.

When do you think the current models will be upgraded to use the new batteries?

Do we really need 10 threads for this question? I'm not sure why the moderators don't just lock threads as duplicates or merge them.

anyway here is my answer from the other top page thread on this:

Tesla has a contract for 16850 cells from Panasonic until 2018. They have to wait for that contract to expire or have to pay for cells they won't use (not going to happen anytime soon).

Tesla has a contract with Panasonic that guarantees a minimum purchase of 2 billion 18650s in order to defray the expansion of their battery factory in Japan, signed and beginning in 2013, re-written and expanded in 2014, running until 2018

So just take it that 16850 will be used in S/X until the old Panasonic contract is satisfied in 2018. After that at some point they may switch S/X to 2170.

 

[Troy]

@dhanson865, Elon's latest tweet yesterday leaves the door open for a chemistry upgrade in the current 18650 form factor. Cost reduction is a big incentive for them to do that. Check out JB's video I mentioned in my previous message.

It is not like Panasonic and Tesla have never changed the 18650 chemistry before. Check out this article about the 85 to 90 upgrade which happened in September 2015. The agreement you mentioned wasn't a problem back then:
Charged EVs | Tesla tweaks its battery chemistry: a closer look at silicon anode development

Elon picks his words carefully when tweeting about these subjects. Because he specifically mentioned no change in the forum factor, I think that makes it more likely that we will see a change in the chemistry.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Oh look: Twitter

I've already seen all the links and charts being posted. The idea that 2170 will be meaningfully superior to 18650 in any metric but cost is silly.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

Troy and others you bring up a good point - the chemistry could be the key equalizer helping bring some parity between 2170 and 18650. Thank for the graph that shows the battery progression.

While this has been informative and humbling (changing my handle to Clueless Battery Dude), thank you to the battery savants! Unfortunately this is starting to feel like one of those loser Model 3 threads about every nitnoid detail - the questions weren't really answered:::::Faster?, Lighter? Cheaper? Longer lasting? Charges Faster? works all weekend? Increases Teslatosrone.... blah blah blah.

Tune In tomorrow night when we start a new thread "Is Tesla secretly upgrading the 2018 Key FOB?"

• Will Tesla upgrade the CR2032 to the CR1865 and use the new battery chemistry?
• Will Tesla continue to use Panasonic, 18650's and slice them into 20 CR1865's?
• Will Tesla THROTTLE BACK the FOB output if you press the buttons to many times?
• When will the FOB firmware be updated? Can I be a luddite and not accept the update?
• Will Tesla add Reverse Summon? (have the car summon the key FOB!!!)
• Will Tesla enable the FOB to have SPOTIFY channel changer?
• Will Tesla put a little hitch on my FOB so I can tow my lanyard?
• Why isn't the Model 3 FOB a hatchback?
• Will Tesla allow lifetime Supercharger access for the FOB?
• Will 22 mm rims fit on my 2018 FOB?
• Will my FOB range decrease in cold weather?
• Will the new FOB FSD have the promised hovercraft option in the next firmware upgrade even after the vendor breakup with MobileFOB? In which century?
• Will the new FOB battery combust - when you struck by your mother in law's rear end? Will Tesla install the new Titanium motherinlaw shield? Why would you want this?
• Will USDOT upgrade the law to allow mirrorless FOBs?
• Will the IRS still provide Tesla buyers with the .7500 dollar tax rebate?
• Will NADA stop blocking FOB Sales in X State?
• And more!!!!!!!

 

[Gwgan]

"Tech" = size + chemistry + cooling, right? Then no change planned.

I was just hoping there would be range enough for winter travel and anytime travel to the Maritimes and northern Maine. Planning a long trip south and will have to charge my 90 for an hour at least twice each way until,there are more superchargers.

 

[Troy]

No plans to change 100 kWh pack tech.

Elon specifically says "pack tech" which is different than "cell tech". In the battery industry, you need to specify what you are talking about. The following screenshot is from a document Tesla published recently. Notice how they differentiate between cell and pack cost, cell level energy density and pack level energy density, cell design and pack design. Therefore, the statement above does not eliminate a change in cell tech or cell chemistry.

Source: Tesla Gigafactory1 Tour Jan 2017 Handout FINAL | Battery (Electricity) | Physical Universe

You'll never worry about running out if range.

Elon is reassuring the person by saying range will be enough but the person is not worried about range. He is worried about missing out on the latest and greatest. This statement almost sounds like he is giving people a reason not to be upset if Tesla increases the S/X range.

Elon is in a difficult position here. They need to continue selling the Model S and X for a while. Ideally, they want to finish this year with 100K Model S and X sales. So Elon has to reassure people while choosing his words carefully so he doesn't say something incorrect.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

Yes. He is being very measured in his response.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Elon specifically says "pack tech" which is different than "cell tech". In the battery industry, you need to specify what you are talking about. The following screenshot is from a document Tesla published recently. Notice how they differentiate between cell and pack cost, cell level energy density and pack level energy density, cell design and pack design. Therefore, the statement above does not eliminate a change in cell tech or cell chemistry.

He also specifically wrote "100kWh". That doesn't exclude a higher capacity pack...

(Just kidding.)

 

[Ed Hart]

So, my take from all of the TMC discussions and online info about the 2170:

1. Yes, there is likely a 18650 contract with Panasonic, so some kind of agreement will mean no scrap or loss of income. It is just business, folks. They will figure it out.

2. There appears to be no technical reason why S/X cannot be changed over to 2170s.

3. The costs of the 2170 is likely to be MUCH lower than the 18650, so the change will have to take place.

4. Tesla just built a $5 billion factory to make the 2170...and only the 2170; logically, the 2170 will go in everything.

5. Sanyo and Samsung have already announced plans to build the 2170 for a full range of applications.

6. Samsung’s claims for the 2170 are truly spectacular in terms of EV packaging and charging speeds.

7. The lower cost of the 2170 will allow slight oversizing of the battery pack; this will minimize any apparent capacity loss over the life of the vehicle.

8. A slight oversizing also provides for much faster charging times. (see chart)

9. S/X would enjoy a significant weight reduction in the change to the 2170: maybe 200 pounds(?)

10. A lower current draw per cell means longer cell life. My read suggests the 2170 is favorable for this.

11. There IS a demand for longer range in all EVs: 400 miles will quickly become the “I-no-longer-worry-about-range” goal.

12. There is speculation that the S75 is already using the 2170

13. I believe that the very high volumes the gigafactory will drive down 2170 costs very quickly. (see prediction)

Tesla is quickly moving the target for all others who hope to enter this space.

 

[vigge50]

@Ed Hart I don't agree with you on all points

7, 8, 9. How will Model S and X both get more capacity and a significant weight loss? I know that the energy density on maybe have got little better but if they can get the weight down and the capability up at the same time I'm not sure.

10. The 2170 cells have a wider diameter wish hardly means that tesla they will have more cells, it will be the opposite, they will have fewer cells to take care of the high current.

 

[Ed Hart]

@Ed Hart I don't agree with you on all points

7, 8, 9. How will Model S and X both get more capacity and a significant weight loss? I know that the energy density on maybe have got little better but if they can get the weight down and the capability up at the same time I'm not sure.

10. The 2170 cells have a wider diameter wish hardly means that tesla they will have more cells, it will be the opposite, they will have fewer cells to take care of the high current.

Fair comments and criticisms, vigge50, because I am obviously not a Tesla insider. However, given the main concerns that the general public and the press have about electric vehicles - cost, range, charging time, charging locations - it is hard to imagine that Tesla and Panasonic (Samsung and Sanyo, too) would be investing so much real money to create an all-new cell design that only address the cost issue. It seems to me that the gigafactory/2170 goals also include giving EVs longer range for fewer stops and more roaming range, plus faster charge times...both contributing longterm to the need for fewer charging locations.

 

[Julie's MS]

Still surprised they have not rolled out the new battery packs across the whole range of Tesla products. Seems only the Model S & X are still using the old battery packs. Where as the Model 3 & the power walls use the newer 2170 form factor cells.

Also surprised the motors also have not been upgraded on the Model S & X.

Once these changes happen the range should improve on the Model S & X. Like the new iPhone you just never know when it will launch. No one wants to be stuck with old

How Tesla Made the Model 3 Better Than the Model S

https://jalopnik.com/how-tesla-made-the-model-3-better-than-the-model-s-1828052113

 

[xyeahtony]

Still surprised they have not rolled out the new battery packs across the whole range of Tesla products. Seems only the Model S & X are still using the old battery packs. Where as the Model 3 & the power walls use the newer 2170 form factor cells.

Also surprised the motors also have not been upgraded on the Model S & X.

Once these changes happen the range should improve on the Model S & X. Like the new iPhone you just never know when it will launch. No one wants to be stuck with old

How Tesla Made the Model 3 Better Than the Model S

https://jalopnik.com/how-tesla-made-the-model-3-better-than-the-model-s-1828052113

Its been discussed multiple times that there is no model x/s refresh coming til late next year. Elon has already publicly stated no change to the batteries on model s/x. That would require a complete redesign to be able to carry the new 2170 cells which are different size.

Nevermind that Tesla currently has a shortage of 2170 cells. Powerwalls are being delayed in favor of making model 3 batteries. Tesla does not have the time/money/resources to commit to new batteries for the Model S/X and why would they? People are still buying the S/X in ever increasing numbers.

 

[Ed Hart]

Its been discussed multiple times that there is no model x/s refresh coming til late next year. Elon has already publicly stated no change to the batteries on model s/x. That would require a complete redesign to be able to carry the new 2170 cells which are different size.

Nevermind that Tesla currently has a shortage of 2170 cells. Powerwalls are being delayed in favor of making model 3 batteries. Tesla does not have the time/money/resources to commit to new batteries for the Model S/X and why would they? People are still buying the S/X in ever increasing numbers.

At the core of my contention that the 2170 is coming soon is the fundamental fact that they build a monster factory to make a higher performance battery, summarized in the ironic conclusion that they need to not disrupt current sales of S and X.

 

[AndreyATC]

At some point, if cost savings on building 2170 packs for S/X outweighs the cost of the change, why not?
It'll be cheaper to produce flagship models while staying more competitive.

 

[ek993]

I am not sure how anyone on this forum - unless they work for Tesla and are privy to inside information - can categorically state with absolute 100% certainty that a battery upgrade is either coming, or not.

 

[Ed Hart]

I am not sure how anyone on this forum - unless they work for Tesla and are privy to inside information - can categorically state with absolute 100% certainty that a battery upgrade is either coming, or not.

I don't think I have said that I am 100% certain that Tesla will do a battery upgrade...and I am not an insider. What I AM saying, however, is that the circumstantial evidence - a higher energy density battery, a lower cost per kWh, a faster charging battery, an easier-to-cool battery, a safer battery construction, a light weight battery, a massive, dedicated investment in a new battery factory - strongly suggests that Tesla will logically convert all vehicles to the new cells. Is that better?

 

[ek993]

I don't think I have said that I am 100% certain that Tesla will do a battery upgrade...and I am not an insider. What I AM saying, however, is that the circumstantial evidence - a higher energy density battery, a lower cost per kWh, a faster charging battery, an easier-to-cool battery, a safer battery construction, a light weight battery, a massive, dedicated investment in a new battery factory - strongly suggests that Tesla will logically convert all vehicles to the new cells. Is that better?

My post was more aimed at the comments that state as fact that a battery upgrade is not coming.

 

[RDoc]

I'm with the camp that says it's all about cost to Tesla. They are focused on making money, and thus far, and for the foreseeable future, they don't have any real competition. There's no pressure to lower prices or increase functionality.

 

[Ed Hart]

I'm with the camp that says it's all about cost to Tesla. They are focused on making money, and thus far, and for the foreseeable future, they don't have any real competition. There's no pressure to lower prices or increase functionality.

There are two fundamental rules of business that apply to your response:

1. If you are entering a market new to you, change the rules. Do not go in on the leader's rules; he will clobber you. To wit: Tesla entered the automobile business with a compelling long-range electric vehicle with city-to-city charging network, not an ICE.

2. If you are the leader in a market segment, MOVE THE TARGET!; Tesla is now a target, thus must keep moving that target. For example, while Porsche, Jag, Audi and others are about the enter the market with compelling vehicles, their "urban use" ranges and no city-to-city charging network will make the sales story more difficult. Now, imagine how much harder that would get if Tesla did a refresh to add more range to the S and X at little or no additional cost. THAT is what a leader should do.