When will Model 3 be available if you don't reserve?

I would say late 2019 maybe.

 

The answer is nobody knows. Tesla does not have a good history of making their self imposed due dates. The fact that Chevy will get the Bolt to market well before the 3 puts more pressure on Tesla to produce this time.

I am kind of looking at the same question. My CPO Tesla has 3 years left on the warranty. When that gets near my choices will be Model 3 or CPO Tesla Model S or new Model S.(base model) The market could change a lot between now and then, so no need to lose sleep over it today.

 

I say you better reserve. If you get your design studio open to early, order with a later delivery date, defer or cancel and get your money back, then make a new reservation.

 

Factors that will have an affect on the date will be:

The initial production date of the Model 3.
The speed of the ramp up.
The number of people that reserve.

Nobody here can answer any of those questions with certainty.

What you do currently know as a fact is that the reservation is 100% refundable.
Another fact is that in the present and past, Tesla has had no issues with people delaying their configuration.

So if you reserve, you can later decide to cancel that and get your deposit back, or you can simply delay your order if Tesla is ready before you are.

If you don't reserve, you can't decide to get in line earlier.

The choice that leaves you the most flexibility is to place the deposit as early as possible.

 

Some positives recently include the analysts who toured the factory and remarked how far it had come since the last visit and their comments seemed to be towards the Model 3 capacity ramp up. Of course we need the Giga factory to be producing enough batteries to meet the ramp up demand. I think it's reasonable to imagine some Model 3's will be delivered in late 2017 with a slow ramp up into January 2018 (like the Model X's). By mid 2018 I'd hope to see lots of Model 3's available for delivery so if you reserve you could get one in mid 2018.

 

After the Model 3 starts delivery, how soon could we see CPO's available?

 

Officially? It took about 3 years from initial 2012 sales to make their own CPO website. That said, I think some people got some CPO's slightly before the website went live. I would say 2 years at the soonest... most people are on a 3 year cycle for new cars.

 

^ I'll guess two years. My reasoning is that the tech in the cars will continue to advance and a small number of 3 owners will trade in their cars for the latest and greatest. But those might be early highly optioned cars, so they might not be all that cheap as CPOs.

This assumes that Tesla will continue with CPOs. The last month they haven't added any to the tiny remnant list of CPOs. It may be that they are moving to another used car sales model, as has been much discussed elsewhere.

 

Reserve. In addition to better likelihood of getting the car when you want you will have a much better chance of getting the federal $7.5k tax credit.

 

OP, also keep in mind that if, when deliveries begin, you decide you want one and place an order then, there may still be a 6-18month backlog.

 

Also, I think the current situation with the Model X might provide some guidance, although as most everyone is stating, no one really knows. From what it looks like, the MX is really starting to ramp up deliveries, but you still can't just "go out and buy" one even now. They are still working through the initial reservation queue of orders.

So, once Model 3 deliveries start, I imagine you won't be able to just order one. But rather, you will be able to submit a new reservation and be at the veeeeery end of the line.

Now, if M3 production looks like MX looks to be going, you may be able to order a fully loaded M3 and still get into the earlier production dates.

 

There is usually over production of highly optioned cars, before custom car orders are completely filled. Both 'S' and 'X' followed this trend. So, if you don't reserve my guess is ~45 days after the first delivery, you'll be able to find a $55,000, loaded Model 3. That would mean starting with a confirmed order, maybe 30 days ahead.

I'll be surprised if one can't layer $15,000 of options onto this car.