Will Tesla Buildup Superchargers to Accommodate Anticipated Demand from Ford, GM, Rivian, and whoever else, Adopting NACS circa 2024/2025?

[E90alex]

Lucid already surrendered.
Actually the list should include the Chinese EV manufacturers which are more significant than VW and Stellantis. SAIC already agreed to use NACS in China.

SAIC-GM strikes deal with Tesla for Supercharger Network access in China

The partnership will allow owners of SAIC-GM EVs built on the Ultium platform to access Tesla's Supercharger Network.

www.teslarati.com

That’s supercharger access. Tesla does not use NACS in China. They use GB/T due to government regulations. Just like CCS2 is required in EU.

Chinese automakers are not yet selling in the US and none have made solid plans to. Doesn’t make sense to broker a deal with Tesla for US supercharger access when they don’t even have cars here yet.

 

[MP3Mike]

Actually the list should include the Chinese EV manufacturers which are more significant than VW and Stellantis. SAIC already agreed to use NACS in China.

No, they signed on to use the Supercharger network in China. Which uses the GB-T plug, not NACS. (Chinese law requires all EVs to use GB-T.)

 

[kpanda17]

Lucid already surrendered.
Actually the list should include the Chinese EV manufacturers which are more significant than VW and Stellantis. SAIC already agreed to use NACS in China.

SAIC-GM strikes deal with Tesla for Supercharger Network access in China

The partnership will allow owners of SAIC-GM EVs built on the Ultium platform to access Tesla's Supercharger Network.

www.teslarati.com

Please don’t help China
They are the worlds biggest threat

China stealing technology secrets -- from AI to computing and biology, "Five Eyes" intelligence leaders warn

Intelligence leaders from the U.S., Canada, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand are issuing a stark warning on the danger of China's global espionage campaign.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[rlsd]

Another company plans to use Tesla superchargers:

EG Group teams up with Tesla for ultra-fast EV charging technology | TheBusinessDesk.com

evpoint was founded in 2021 as part of EG Group’s investments in energy transition with focus on lower carbon vehicular fuels

www.thebusinessdesk.com

 

[ALdawg]

Let’s estimate how many Superchargers will be needed in the US and project the needed growth rate of the network to accommodate all cars.


3 x 10^12 miles driven in US per year. Unclear if this number includes non-passenger trucks and buses.
Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data - Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States
Assume 80% of all miles are level 2 home/work charged and 20% Supercharger
600,000,000,000 (6 x 10^11 miles per year) for Superchargers
600,000,000,000 miles/365 days = 1.6 x 10^9 miles to Supercharge per day

Assume 200 miles per charge and that each Supercharger stall provides 20 sessions per day (4000 miles/supercharger day) without frequently needing to wait. Currently, Supercharger use is lower across the entire network and this higher assumption use will significantly determine how many will be needed. Interstate geography for travel coverage drives lower Supercharger use early in network rollout but perhaps this will change over time. Faster Superchargers would be expected over time to mitigate potential congestion and allow more charges per day.

1.6 x 10^9 miles/4000 miles per Supercharger per day = 400,000 Supercharger stalls needed in US.

If use is significantly less than 20 sessions/day, then the required number of Superchargers is potentially much higher. One estimate in 2022 was supercharge average of only 5 times per day per stall.
Tesla Reveals Charging Stats: Almost 2 Million Sessions Per Day

Currently, there are ~22,000 US Supercharger stalls so we are talking about ~20X size of the current network to provide Supercharging for 20% of all miles when all cars are EVs. That is about 35% annual growth rate over 10 years. Worldwide supercharger growth is about 33% so that does not sound that crazy. Furthermore, it will take more than ten years to replace ICE fleet so the required rate of growth of Supercharger stalls to avoid congestion may be lower than 35% per year.

Factors potentially leading to underestimate of SuperCharger need:

• Robo taxis (or EV Ubers) increase total miles driven and need for Superchargers. Percent of charges on Superchargers may be higher for these vehicles.
• Fleet efficiency < rated miles charged
• Network needs to be over built to accommodate peak demand for travel. The demand distribution between peak and non-peak travel or holidays is not clear but Tesla has this information.
• Tesla uses free unlimited supercharging in the future to market newer cars and that changes charging behavior away from level 2
• Urban level two charging options do not grow to meet demand and actual percentage of SuperCharging is greater than 20% of the three trillion miles.
• 20 charge sessions per day average per Supercharger stall is not feasible due to preference for most to charge during the day. This is potentially mitigated by variable pricing.
• A short term bolus of third party Supercharger use may locally overwhelm Supercharger capacity during peak travel before Tesla can react to build additional capacity to meet this demand. This is hopefully a short term problem and Tesla has 1-2 years to plan.
• Larger (CyberTruck) or slower charging EVs (non-Tesla) will slow down throughput at Superchargers

Please check my assumptions and math, but it seems that Tesla Supercharger network will be able to broadly grow as fast as needed even if other venders do not step up significantly. Note this calculation excludes any third party level 3 charging infrastructure (non-Tesla).

For comparison, there are just over 100,000 gas stations in the US (number seems to be declining each year but latest I saw was 115K in 2022 compared to almost 200k in 2004). Those 100K+ stations have to cover almost all 3 trillion miles driven. Let’s ignore current EV charging as a rounding error and assume there are 10 pumps per station (I know Buc-ees’ has 120). So that is about 1,000,000 pumps for 3 trillion miles per year or about 3,000,000 miles per pump per year. That is about 8,200 miles per pump per day. Assume 300 miles per fill up, then that is about 27 fill ups per pump per day (more at Buc-ee’s and Costco).

 

[kpanda17]

Key locations are currently taken by gas stations. To keep using the locations, let’s highlight me an out of the box, profound designer, designs a new location type that can be 50/50 gas and electric refilling and easily change over time to all electric recharging

 

[kpanda17]

So fix

Hope an out of the box, profound designer, designs a new location type that can be 50/50 gas and electric refilling and easily change over time to all electric recharging

 

[rlsd]

Big gas company will work with Tesla to support EV.

Exxon wants to be a leading lithium supplier for EVs by 2030 - Autoblog

Exxon acquired rights to 120,000 acres in the Smackover formation in southern Arkansas and plans to begin output of lithium by 2027.

www.autoblog.com

 

[Earl]

Key locations are currently taken by gas stations. To keep using the locations, let’s highlight me an out of the box, profound designer, designs a new location type that can be 50/50 gas and electric refilling and easily change over time to all electric recharging

except, of course, that a gas station location is fine for a 5 minute stop but with an EV, having something to do is nice.

 

[kpanda17]

except, of course, that a gas station location is fine for a 5 minute stop but with an EV, having something to do is nice.

New design we can’t imagine
Maybe lift and stack rotisserie

 

[phxazcraig]

I suppose your math is correct, but I wonder about some of the assumptions. For instance, in some number of years, cheap EV's will be available (new or used), and a bunch of apartment dwellers will finally get an EV. That's a big boost in people who mostly can't charge at home. Then, if plenty of charging stations are around, EV's will be driven more aggressively, using a bit more charge than before. And when EV's really spread into the colder states, winter conditions will affect charging a lot. And when some of the charging deserts have a few stations, a whole region might tip into EV's.

 

[RTPEV]

Another issue with your assumptions is this: intuitively it may seem that 80% home / 20% road is a realistic split, but in my own experience, I found that while about 95% of the TIME I charge it's at home, the mileage split was more like 50 / 50. The reason is that while I may drive 10,000 miles a year, a good 5,000 miles of that are on long distance road trips. The local driving just doesn't add up to much.

I'm not sure how that skews the statistics though.

One other thing to point out though: just like Tesla is not going to supply 100% of the EVs in the future, neither do I think it will supply 100% of the charging infrastructure. Other parties will come into the picture (hopefully with better reliability and availability than what we have today).

 

[henderrj]

Let’s estimate how many Superchargers will be needed in the US and project the needed growth rate of the network to accommodate all cars.


3 x 10^12 miles driven in US per year. Unclear if this number includes non-passenger trucks and buses.
Alternative Fuels Data Center: Maps and Data - Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States
Assume 80% of all miles are level 2 home/work charged and 20% Supercharger
600,000,000,000 (6 x 10^11 miles per year) for Superchargers
600,000,000,000 miles/365 days = 1.6 x 10^9 miles to Supercharge per day

Assume 200 miles per charge and that each Supercharger stall provides 20 sessions per day (4000 miles/supercharger day) without frequently needing to wait. Currently, Supercharger use is lower across the entire network and this higher assumption use will significantly determine how many will be needed. Interstate geography for travel coverage drives lower Supercharger use early in network rollout but perhaps this will change over time. Faster Superchargers would be expected over time to mitigate potential congestion and allow more charges per day.

1.6 x 10^9 miles/4000 miles per Supercharger per day = 400,000 Supercharger stalls needed in US.

If use is significantly less than 20 sessions/day, then the required number of Superchargers is potentially much higher. One estimate in 2022 was supercharge average of only 5 times per day per stall.
Tesla Reveals Charging Stats: Almost 2 Million Sessions Per Day

Currently, there are ~22,000 US Supercharger stalls so we are talking about ~20X size of the current network to provide Supercharging for 20% of all miles when all cars are EVs. That is about 35% annual growth rate over 10 years. Worldwide supercharger growth is about 33% so that does not sound that crazy. Furthermore, it will take more than ten years to replace ICE fleet so the required rate of growth of Supercharger stalls to avoid congestion may be lower than 35% per year.

Factors potentially leading to underestimate of SuperCharger need:

• Robo taxis (or EV Ubers) increase total miles driven and need for Superchargers. Percent of charges on Superchargers may be higher for these vehicles.
• Fleet efficiency < rated miles charged
• Network needs to be over built to accommodate peak demand for travel. The demand distribution between peak and non-peak travel or holidays is not clear but Tesla has this information.
• Tesla uses free unlimited supercharging in the future to market newer cars and that changes charging behavior away from level 2
• Urban level two charging options do not grow to meet demand and actual percentage of SuperCharging is greater than 20% of the three trillion miles.
• 20 charge sessions per day average per Supercharger stall is not feasible due to preference for most to charge during the day. This is potentially mitigated by variable pricing.
• A short term bolus of third party Supercharger use may locally overwhelm Supercharger capacity during peak travel before Tesla can react to build additional capacity to meet this demand. This is hopefully a short term problem and Tesla has 1-2 years to plan.
• Larger (CyberTruck) or slower charging EVs (non-Tesla) will slow down throughput at Superchargers

Please check my assumptions and math, but it seems that Tesla Supercharger network will be able to broadly grow as fast as needed even if other venders do not step up significantly. Note this calculation excludes any third party level 3 charging infrastructure (non-Tesla).

For comparison, there are just over 100,000 gas stations in the US (number seems to be declining each year but latest I saw was 115K in 2022 compared to almost 200k in 2004). Those 100K+ stations have to cover almost all 3 trillion miles driven. Let’s ignore current EV charging as a rounding error and assume there are 10 pumps per station (I know Buc-ees’ has 120). So that is about 1,000,000 pumps for 3 trillion miles per year or about 3,000,000 miles per pump per year. That is about 8,200 miles per pump per day. Assume 300 miles per fill up, then that is about 27 fill ups per pump per day (more at Buc-ee’s and Costco).

Perhaps I missed it, but it looks like you assume every mile driven needs to be replaced by a supercharger or a type 2 charger. The fact is I hardly ever use superchargers, only when I'm on a road trip. Which we do more than most people but only four or five times a year. Charging at home is far and away my most common method. I'm guessing that most people drive more within 100 miles of their home than they do anywhere else. So, they will never need a supercharger for that.

 

[Earl]

I suppose your math is correct, but I wonder about some of the assumptions. For instance, in some number of years, cheap EV's will be available (new or used), and a bunch of apartment dwellers will finally get an EV. That's a big boost in people who mostly can't charge at home. Then, if plenty of charging stations are around, EV's will be driven more aggressively, using a bit more charge than before.

I think the likely analogy for this is the washer and dryer.
Initially, of course, they were just for the rich with extra room and plumbing in their houses. The poor still washed by hand in the back and hung their laundry out their tenement windows (clever pulley schemes) to dry.

Since washers and dryers were a lot more convenient, up sprung coin laundromats for folks to use - driven by the market. That was (and still is) inconvenient so that, today, folks with choices choose places (including rentals) with onsite laundry, in-unit much preferred.
The infrastructure to support EV charging is similar to a washer/dryer. I suspect that as apartment owners begin adopting EVs (likely leading with used ones as pointed out), demand will rise for public charging, just like laundromats.

Personally, I think government meddling will just continue to make this worse by rewarding bad behavior and creating miserable charging experiences.
Having just spent the weekend with a rental Hyundai Kona EV, I can assure you it is a completely different experience than a Tesla. I charged 3 times and there were bad things all times:
1) Only one EVgo station available but could only get 24 KW out of it.
2) $1.48/KWhr and only 46 KW charging speed at the EVConnect at a dark, lonely GMC dealer.
3) Had to wait about 10 minutes for an open charger, then, it wouldn't register on my EA app but luckily, my credit card worked to get 49 kW charging at a per-minute cost.

 

[Earl]

Perhaps I missed it, but it looks like you assume every mile driven needs to be replaced by a supercharger or a type 2 charger. The fact is I hardly ever use superchargers, only when I'm on a road trip. Which we do more than most people but only four or five times a year. Charging at home is far and away my most common method. I'm guessing that most people drive more within 100 miles of their home than they do anywhere else. So, they will never need a supercharger for that.

@ALdawg covered that with

Assume 80% of all miles are level 2 home/work charged and 20% Supercharger

I believe this is a fairly reasonable assumption. It would be hard to argue that any other number is better. 20% probably covers road trips where many miles are driven at a time as well as apartment dwellers, salesmen, and taxi/rideshare drivers fairly well.

 

[ALdawg]

The 2023 Investor Day included 2022 data for the entire Tesla fleet. I should have included this above.

1.9 million total charges sessions per day for entire fleet. ~214,000 per day were Superchargers. This is about 11% of all charging sessions on SuperChargers so 20% in the calculation is higher than currently observed. Also in the Investor Day presentation, Tesla explicitly states the overall plan is to significantly expand daytime AC charging with a primary goal to maximize renewable use. Looks of work to do on this. Hotels, apartments and condos need lots of work. I am interested to see progress in this area as an alternative to in-town Supercharging.

Note that my overall point is that Supercharger growth as planned will grossly match demand even with other brands charging.

(Charging presentation starts about 1:35:35)

 

[burfoerste]

It's not a privelege. It's the fruits of our labor. Most of us busted our butts in school to get a job where we busted our butts to earn money for a house, a car, and a charger. If you're not there yet then keep working at it, but please don't dismiss the efforts of others.

With prices starting $2000000 at my area? Besides, I love to travel, I don’t want detached house, it’s too much hassle and too much space to accumulate junk in the garage.

 

[burfoerste]

Don’t buy an EV yet

In my case I have free level 2 charging at work, 20 urban chargers stalls and 12 V3 stalls in vicinity from my place (0.6km) with rate 0.14$ per kWr. That makes perfect sense to buy an EV. Prices for gas $2 per litre regular $7.4 per gallon. But can think about people who don’t have even this options

 

[BrintTessla]

The Fed funding requires 1 station every 50 miles so there will be many more soon.

 

[rstx]

The Fed funding requires 1 station every 50 miles so there will be many more soon.

"Requires"?