TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Working on Autopilot v2 hardware suite - Confirmation by Elon

Discussion in 'Model X' started by satheesh.net, Jan 12, 2016.

  1. satheesh.net

    satheesh.net Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2013
    Messages:
    153
    Location:
    Norway
    So as you probably know by now, Elon has confirmed that they are working on a new hardware suit, let's call it Autopilot v2.


    It's a shame that existing TMX owners and near future owners (including yours truly) will not have this new set of features already installed and up and running. The current Autopilot actually gives me the features I need today and probably for a little while longer. Summoning the car from another city isn't really something I need per say.


    So the question is; wait for the new hardware or be happy with the current one that's already here?


    (From the conference call on Sunday 11th. of January. TOCN Live! Elon Musk on firmware 7.1)
     

    Attached Files:

    • A-1.png
      A-1.png
      File size:
      76.3 KB
      Views:
      227
    • A-2.png
      A-2.png
      File size:
      42.3 KB
      Views:
      216
  2. spentan

    spentan Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2012
    Messages:
    1,256
    Location:
    SoCal
    I wonder if they learnt their lesson and made it retrofittable this time. Model X especially Signature owners are gonna be really pissed that they waited 4 years for a car that was obsoleted in 6 months
     
  3. satheesh.net

    satheesh.net Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2013
    Messages:
    153
    Location:
    Norway
    I totally agree! I'm also hoping that they learned their lesson but not holding my breath on this one... Maybe we should start a petition to be sure that we get their attention as early as possible.
     
  4. J1mbo

    J1mbo Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2013
    Messages:
    611
    Location:
    UK
    It is possible that the X already has two rear corner radars. See the screenshot from 7.0 developer mode in this thread.

    (Important to note that S had a bunch of settings for Autopilot hardware in the Developer screen for years before AP was launched).

    Rear corner radar helps with overtaking, as the car has a better view of cars that are coming up from behind than the ultrasonic sensors can provide. I would guess that this is a critical feature for the sort of autonomy that Elon was talking about.
     
  5. ankitmishra

    ankitmishra Member

    Joined:
    Sep 1, 2015
    Messages:
    337
    Location:
    India
    He said that the new hardware suite will take time. And why would a feature that will make people want to upgrade their cars would be retrofittable? If people want the new hardware, upgrade to the latest model.
     
  6. satheesh.net

    satheesh.net Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2013
    Messages:
    153
    Location:
    Norway
    #6 satheesh.net, Jan 12, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2016
    Btw, a cool thing with v7.1 and the current hardware, is that it appears to "see" this cyclist and slows down before passing it and then speeds up again. (YouTube)
     

    Attached Files:

  7. timf

    timf Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2013
    Messages:
    900
    Location:
    Michigan
    The way I read it, the upgraded sensor set is still 2-3 years away. It may be ready about the time of Model 3 release or shortly thereafter. Is it worth waiting that long in order to achieve full autonomy? I would say no, because there's no guarantee the software and regulatory approvals will be in place to allow it. The amount they are able to achieve with the current feature set is impressive enough and by the time full autonomy is readily available I'll likely be ready for a new car anyway.
     
  8. MXinCT

    MXinCT Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    20
    Location:
    Connecticut
    I would venture to guess the new hardware suite is a solid year away as they have just now really started pushing autopilot software and promised features on the original sensor suite. The longer they can support a single sensor suite in the wild the better as far as development and implementation goes. I would bet they don't make the same mistake the second time around and roll out the hardware a year before anyone gets to use it. All of the features Elon mentions required for truly autonomous driving are going to add some cost to each car for sure and with their push for profitability i doubt they will throw a couple grand of hardware in the cars without getting paid for it.
     
  9. hockeythug

    hockeythug Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2013
    Messages:
    1,499
    Location:
    Minnesota
    The 8-camera suite and the new EyeQ4 chips is not going to be a retrofit.
     
  10. Dysong1

    Dysong1 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2013
    Messages:
    13
    Location:
    Maryland
    I don't know, this is seriously making me think about putting off my Model X purchase. My wife could still drive her current SUV for another year or two. I already did the upgrade thing with my Model S when autopilot was announced; don't feel like doing it with Model X again once v2 comes out.
     
  11. Vitold

    Vitold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2015
    Messages:
    990
    Location:
    NM
    How long are you willing to wait? Tesla has one of the best systems at the moment and they are still improving it. Considering that Tesla's AP engineer quit and EM announced that he is assembling new AP team I personally think that they are at least one year away.
     
  12. roblab

    roblab Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2008
    Messages:
    2,030
    Location:
    Angwin (Napa Valley) CA
    First off, we are pretty sure EyeQ from Mobileye will not be the hardware. Or the software.

    Second, at least in my car, there is room by the rear view mirror, on the right, for a bunch of cameras, radar, who knows what else.

    Elon is building his own version of AP. I think a lot of it will work in my current car, and I expect hardware upgrades. As to a "year", I wouldn't conjecture that far out. There are times it seems Tesla takes a long time, but other times when, "poof", it downloaded over the air and is waiting for you to install.

    I wouldn't wait. The perfect is the enemy of the good. You will likely buy another Tesla and upgrade, and find the prices have dropped again.
     
  13. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2014
    Messages:
    4,854
    Location:
    North Bay, CA
    ^ Yes. Shop the car you know, not the car you're extrapolating. If you need or even really, really want full autonomous driving, Tesla doesn't meet your needs, so just wait until it does. If not, they have a pretty great product available today.

    You could easily make the same argument about waiting for another manufacturer's EV. Those are all "coming soon" as well, and they might be awesome.

    I'd change one point - "there are times it seems that Tesla takes a long time, then there are times that it seems like Tesla takes a really long time." When it comes to developing 100% in house autopilot, I am going to guess it's one of those two.
     
  14. AdamSM

    AdamSM Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Messages:
    43
    Location:
    United States
    Yeah, I'll be sad if I get my Model X in 6 or 9 months and then AP2.0 hardware rolls out 3 or 6 months later. But there's no guarantee that will be the pattern--it could just as easily be a year or 18 months later for AP2.0 hardware, and another year for AP2.0 software that actually opens up meaningful new functionality that AP1.0 hardware can't support. Not getting the car I want now because there might be a better version later is a pattern that results in not buying a Tesla for 5 or 10 years, if ever. :)

    If it's the faster timeline, then we'd have to figure out whether it's worth the very large expense of selling the old model and buying a new one. It would probably mean a few years delay to when we get the new model. But frankly, that's not the end of the world. And getting a Model X soon is a big deal for us.

    Also, the collective action issue is worth thinking about. If everyone waits for the new technology, it may never arrive, because Tesla needs to sell their current cars to afford the R&D for their future cars.
     
  15. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2013
    Messages:
    10,387
    Location:
    San Mateo, CA
    @ohmman's points are persuasive. The only thing we know for sure is that Tesla will continue to improve their vehicles. We don't know when improvements will occur because Tesla does not operate on the traditional "model year" schedule. If you are considering buying a Tesla, make your purchase decision based on what you can buy right now. If you think you might wait to buy because "something better is coming" you will never buy. "Something better" is always coming. So what? Teslas are awesome cars right now! My "classic" S is an awesome car.
     
  16. zer0cool

    zer0cool Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2015
    Messages:
    203
    Location:
    charlotte, nc
    The fact is that Elon's promises generally come later than he say they would. For example, model X took 2 more years, autopilot software took 1 more year than the hardware, and Falcon 9 took 3 tries. Although he's thinking v2 will be full auto driving, but first that might be 2 to 3 years away, and in fact I think there will likely need to be a v3, if not more, and that's 5-6 years away etc. At the end, every car improves, and the new car is always better than the previous car, for every car company... If you don't buy the current car, which is the best there is today, in hopes of a better car 2 or 3 years down the line, then you ll never actually have a car... This is true for Tesla, for Porsche, Mercedes, whatever.

    E.g. people all knew like a year ago that the new Mercedes E class would be amazingly better compared with the current E, but did people just stop buying the current E? Not really... because that new E was still a couple years away.
     
  17. mn4az

    mn4az Member

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2015
    Messages:
    151
    Location:
    USA
    According to MobilEye... the production EyeQ4 chips will not be in car manufacturers hands until 2018.
     
  18. HoptownT

    HoptownT Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2015
    Messages:
    25
    Location:
    Hopkinsville, KY
    Tesla time people. It warps space time to slow everything down. Your 3 to 4 months translates to few years from now. 2 years from now means about 3 to 4. You can have your model X with no regrets. Even if full autonomy is ready, your local legal system isn't ready.
     
  19. CarlK

    CarlK Member

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2013
    Messages:
    650
    Location:
    SF Bay Area
    It's also a shame that people who waited and buy AP v2 cars would be screwed when AP v3 comes out. Buy the car if it best suits you needs and not if it doesn't. Out-smarting yourself never does one any good.
     
  20. ModelXBoy

    ModelXBoy No More Door Captain of TMC! Oh Yeah Baby!

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2016
    Messages:
    488
    Location:
    Orange County, CA
    Total agreed! There is never a end to chase the next greatest technology. Elon does things base on what he thinks what is advance and base on how feasible their engineers can execute his vision. If it's possible, they will do it regardless how long their customers have been waiting for the previous generation of technology. They will piss some people regardless when to come out the new technology anyway, so the best way is to come out at anytime when the technology is ready.

    On the other hand, i really hope they can integrate this v2 tech into the production model X since we are still waiting for the x to be delivered. Finger crossed : )
     

Share This Page