2% Drop in California of Gas Consumption in Jan / Feb 2013

[Owner]

Is this just a coincidence that the Model S was at a real production level at the same time that gas consumption dropped in California by 2% in January and February this year? Please discuss.

My source of this statistic is from this article.
I condensed the interesting statistics on my blog.

I'm not trying to start a thread about gas taxes supporting the roads. More interested in analyzing the net effect of Model S production.

 

[richkae]

It is a coincidence.
There are 34 million vehicles in California and around 10000 Tesla Model S. That is 0.03%

 

[FreeOfPge]

Is this just a coincidence that the Model S was at a real production level at the same time that gas consumption dropped in California by 2% in January and February this year? Please discuss.

My source of this statistic is from this article.
I condensed the interesting statistics on my blog.

I'm not trying to start a thread about gas taxes supporting the roads. More interested in analyzing the net effect of Model S production.

With increased Leaf and Volt sales, new Prius models including the plug in version, add to that better mpg ratings across the board and it makes sense. We seem to finally be on the right path for sure.

 

[Owner]

It is a coincidence.
There are 34 million vehicles in California and around 10000 Tesla Model S. That is 0.03%

Perhaps Model S purchases replaced a lot of gas guzzlers to have enough effect?

 

[jerry33]

Perhaps Model S purchases replaced a lot of gas guzzlers to have enough effect?

If the average mpg in CA is 30 (not saying it is) and every Tesla replaced a 15 mpg car, and let's say the average Tesla owner drives double the distance of the average CA owner, then that the maximum possible Tesla contribution about 1%. In reality the maximum will be less because only the Teslas in service January and February would be included.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I think that an interesting stat. You need to factor in all EV sales, which would boost the number quite a bit. Then see if gas consumption fell across other states too.

 

[richkae]

If the average mpg in CA is 30 (not saying it is) and every Tesla replaced a 15 mpg car, and let's say the average Tesla owner drives double the distance of the average CA owner, then that the maximum possible Tesla contribution about 1%. In reality the maximum will be less because only the Teslas in service January and February would be included.

0.03% x 2 x 2 = 0.12%

Still negligible.

 

[gaswalla]

I think it's because of the increasing popularity of the Prius... they sold 61,000 Prius cars in 2012.. that volume at 50 MPG replacing 61K cars previously giving 25mpg would make quite a difference.

 

[allanb4me]

any kind of drop in gas consumption is good.

 

[jerry33]

0.03% x 2 x 2 = 0.12%

You're right, I missed a zero. :-(

 

[Benz]

There are 34 million vehicles in California and around 10000 Tesla Model S. That is 0.03%

I don't think that there are 10,000 Tesla Model S's in California yet, as the total number of delivered Tesla Model S's is about 13,000.

But maybe I am wrong.

Would it be possible to find out how many Tesla Model S's have been registered in California so far?

 

[PhilBa]

That article is pretty vague. Is the drop from the previous 2 months or from the first 2 months of 2012. If from the previous 2 months then it's definitely meaningless (all sorts of activities drop in the first two months of the year). If it's from the first two months of 2012, it is only probably meaningless.

 

[AudubonB]

Noise in the data. Try correlating those numbers against, for example, average gasoline prices, against the number of weekend vs weekdays in those years' first two months, against average age of automobile fleet, even against differing weather patterns....there are any number of factors that will contribute more than the number of Teslas.

Yet.

 

[CalDreamin]

Gasoline consumption in the USA peaked in 2007 and has dropped 6% since that time.
U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels per Day)

Americans are driving fewer miles, and vehicle fuel efficiency has been improving.
It's Not The Economy After All: Americans Began Driving Less In 2004
http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/fetrends/1975-2012/420s13001.pdf

 

[Dave EV]

My source of this statistic is from this article.

Interesting - didn't realize the CA gas tax was going up 3.5c / gallon. Considering that I only buy about 200 gallons of gas a year (for the Prius) it's only going to cost about $7. Not quite enough to justify a Model S yet, unfortunately!

Still good to see that gas consumption is going down. I didn't see diesel mentioned at all - TDIs are fairly popular in California as well...

In reality, the federal gas tax also needs to go up to cover budget shortfalls there - it's been stuck at 18.4c/gallon since 1993. It needs to be increased and indexed to inflation at least...