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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2016.

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  1. Ichabod

    Ichabod Member

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    I don't give investment advice, but I will tell you that if you put me in the "paid opposition" category, I would advise you to recalibrate your meter. I make no secret that I'm no uberbull, and I try to question everything. As the leading bull forum for TSLA, this is the best place to fully understand the bull thesis. Part of understanding that is questioning and pushing against it sometimes. I've never posted a single comment on SA, mostly because there is so much hyperbole on both sides that you can't have a reasoned discussion on there. Generally, one can get a reasoned response on here, which is why although I don't post much, I do read here constantly and occasionally post something.

    Seriously, your BS meter is calling a neutral person who questions both sides a paid bear shill, so I would bet that it couldn't even remotely call out a paid shill on the other side. And yes, there are paid shills on both sides, I am quite certain. If I was one, I would certainly feel guilty for taking payment for what I've done. Laughable.
     
  2. Spidy

    Spidy Active Member

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    Because it costs money and those cars don't have the same sales volume and are pretty expensive, so the IIHS doesn't bother and the companies probably don't want to pay. As far as I can tell the NHTSA and Euro NCAP have not tested those cars either. In addition both the the 5-Series and E-Class, which are a small step down from the 7-Series and S-Class and probably on the same platform both got a TopSafetyPick+
     
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  3. Ichabod

    Ichabod Member

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    The IIHS things is really a non-story. Another agency did some tests and the "safest in history" are still excellent and better than 99.9% on the road. Those who scored higher than Tesla can justifiably pat themselves on the back, but this shouldn't move anybody's stock price more than a half a penny.
     
    • Like x 2
  4. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    Elon's twitter followers jumped nearly 40,000 in the last 24 hours (possibly because of SpaceX launch). This is ahead of the rate I predicted just yesterday. I'll be keeping an eye on this in the coming days/weeks to see if the higher rate of increase continues.

    I track this metric as I believe it may provide us with insight into how widespread Elon's name is around the world, which may be important to Tesla's brand value.
     
    • Informative x 1
  5. supratachophobia

    supratachophobia Active Member

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    19 states have sales restrictions currently as of two weeks ago.
     
  6. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    If we could step back a moment from the, I am sure entertaining, discussion on who is a paid shill and who should be on whoms ignore list, may I venture a relevant topic instead?

    I did a very rough estimate for the upcoming quarterly report. Welcoming some discussion should I find time to refine this a little more like last quarter.

    Assuming improvement in vehicle average sale price of 75 base points and excluding recognition of any delayed EAP/FSD revenue I get a revenue of $1,732M. Assuming an improvement of the same 75BP in production efficiency, costs are $1,303M. For leasing I am estimating flat cost and revenue. Obviously the increased fleet should make them grow but last quarter saw exceptionally few leasing starts because of large Hong Kong deliveries which were straight sales. So making those cancel out against each other I get revenue of $254M and cost of $166M.

    Service cost and revenue I don't see that changing a lot compared to last quarter, so let's take identical numbers ($193M revenue, $214 costs)

    Energy storage and generation : are there any big projects that hit the bottom line this quarter? There are the first deliveries for Powerwall 2.0 to account for. 5k delivered @ $6200 adds $31M to the revenue side. Assuming gross margin of 10% (Gigafactory not yet at volumes) adds $28M to the cost side to reach $245M and $180M respectively.

    Adding it all together I get revenue of $2,392M and costs of $1,835M for a gross profit of $557M.

    R&D growing by 10%, SG&A dropping by 10% with the winding down down of SolarCity and adding $5M to the interest expense due to the new convertibles written this quarter I get to respectively $354M, $543M and $104M. On the plus side losses attributable to non-controlling interest of $66M

    Final tally a loss of $375M. Possible upsides : ZEV credits (didn't sell any last quarter) maybe up to $100M and recognition of previous EAP revenue maybe as high as another $100M.
     
    • Informative x 6
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  7. supratachophobia

    supratachophobia Active Member

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    I believe you are searching for a truthiness quotient.
     
  8. supratachophobia

    supratachophobia Active Member

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    I read somewhere that they have to actually buy the cars themselves so that's why luxury vehicles don't show up as often.
     
    • Informative x 1
  9. brian45011

    brian45011 Active Member

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    Kauai was commissioned early in the quarter but it is a 20 year PPA and likely subject to SCTY's VIE/SPE mysterious accounting.
     
    • Informative x 5
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  10. elasalle

    elasalle driVIN(188xx) it !!

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    #20290 elasalle, Jul 6, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
    Vehicle deliveries revisited:

    Here are the numbers
    2017 Q1. 25,418 Produced, 25000 + delivered, 4650 in transit
    2017 Q2. 25708 , 22000+ delivered

    based on the above, there are ( 4650+ 25708 - 22000) = 8358 Vehicles produced but not delivered (note if there was inventory prior to Q1, might be even more)

    Now here is Service Center/Gallery count (from Tesla support page, manual count)
    US - 112
    Rest of World 218
    total - 330

    So question is:
    1. Did Tesla figure out logistics so that at the end of quarter, there are no vehicles in transit?
    2. On average provide 8358/330 = 25 loaners, display vehicles per service Center

    I think there is some confusion as to why the vehicles in transit numbers were not provided in 2Q? And hence added to the S/X inventory glut discussion
    Did Tesla just not choose to report or missed it in report? it seems highly unlikely that all 8K vehicles were provided as loaners.
    Wish they could clarify, but might have to wait till earning for that.
     
    • Informative x 1
  11. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    #20291 neroden, Jul 6, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
    Seems to be a seatbelt issue. They changed seatbelts at one point -- I think they did get the top rating on this IIHS crash test for the 2013 model. Can anyone check?

    Edit: oh, I see, this test wasn't being done in 2013. It's a brand new test. Whatever, then.
     
  12. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

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    I suspect we're reaching a steady run rate for vehicles in transit -- roughly 5000 at any given time. That had to happen.

    There are a minimum of 2 cars per gallery (preferably 4) and each service center needs a *lot* of loaners (5? 10? More for busy centers... at least one per bay, maybe) so let's call it 6 each and guess around 2000 minimum to supply galleries and service centers, probably more. Don't forget 100 shipped to Dubai and 100 shipped to New Zealand to "set up shop".

    P.S. As model 3 ramps up, the number of vehicles in transit at any time will also ramp up. There's only so much you can do to speed up delivery; there will always be a steady flow of vehicles in transit, roughly proportional to delivery rate.
     
    • Informative x 2
  13. Reciprocity

    Reciprocity Active Member

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    The service center I just went to, Highland Park in north Chicago Suburbs, had at least 10 model X's for display/loaner and its a fairly small service center. Oddly, they didnt have any S to loan out, only a 2013 pre-owned. The guy was saying they never had any for display or test drives until recently. I think the first time I saw an X in the showroom, they have room for only 1 car inside, was a couple of weeks ago. I go there a lot to charge and sit and have free coffee! I think they move the demo/loaner cars out fairly quickly and dont hold on to them for long. Someone pointed out something I thought was interesting and is they chose to go with highend cars for loaners because they could still sell them at a profit after loaning them out for a few months and it makes sense because the margins are so high on the P100Ds. This service center did not have any P100Ds to loan out though.
     
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  14. DurandalAI

    DurandalAI Member

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    Honestly, stories about that along with some other accessory failures are among the reasons I haven't sprung on a used Model S versus waiting for the Model 3. At least with the Model 3, I can be reasonably assured that replacement parts will be substantially cheaper than on the Model S.
     
  15. erthquake

    erthquake Active Member

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    It could be argued that the overlap test is setup to bypass most of Tesla's superior crumple zone. That insurance companies have a vested interest in slamming slowing down Tesla keep their autonomous technology from obviating the insurance industry. I'm not sure I believe that argument, but I'd listen. It could be argued that insurance companies will make more profits on Tesla's because of reduced claims.

    That said, I think the best way to support Tesla is not to slam the test, but demand more cars be tested and see how they stack up against Tesla.
     
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  16. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    Historically we are currently at 16979 vehicles produced but not delivered.

    No there were still vehicles in transit. With Tesla not mentioning the number I would wager on a normal amount of cars in transit (4000-5000).
     
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  17. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    From the last earnings call:

    Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla Motors, Inc.

    Sure. With respect to the battery stuff, it's a little lumpy right now because we had a big inflation in fourth quarter with Southern California Edison. And then we had a bit of a gap between the Powerwall 1 and Powerwall 2. So we should start to see that correcting in, Q2, Q3, and particularly, towards the end of this year I would expect quite a dramatic ramp in storage deployment, like really dramatic.

     
  18. DurandalAI

    DurandalAI Member

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    #20298 DurandalAI, Jul 6, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
    Most car companies struggle with the slight overlap. Toyota improved the Prius by bolting on a triangle shaped deflector onto the engine the year after they did poorly on that test. No other modifications, unknown if it would be of any use in a real-world scenario, but Tesla likely could make some similar modification to the body to compensate.

    Edit: Adding link to the Prius info:
    Confirmed: Toyota only reinforced one side of the Prius (photos inside)
     
    • Informative x 3
  19. elasalle

    elasalle driVIN(188xx) it !!

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    Thanks all, I agree with the transit numbers. In one of the clips TV segments I watched after work a few days back, they were questions on why transit numbers were not reported and hence the theory on supply glut.

    So better to believe in the following statement also in the report:
    Provided global economic conditions do not worsen considerably, we are confident that combined deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of 2017 will likely exceed deliveries in the first half of 2017.
     
    • Like x 1
  20. DurandalAI

    DurandalAI Member

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    Insurance... Liability claims should be reduced for Tesla drivers, including injury claims on the opposing side. Injury for occupants inside the Tesla should also be lower. However property damage claims for comprehensive/collision are much higher from what I've read. Un-insured and under-insured drivers will bump up claim amounts, since they are ungodly expensive to fix. Minimums in most places are $25k, and most people don't carry more than $50k on property liability. (Why should they since most people with expensive cars have underinsured motorists coverage?)
     
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