-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
ValueAnalyst
Closed
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Elon said that TE will start to ramp exponentially in Q3 and more in Q4. So your estimate is probably low.
Last edited:
Nobody posted this here, yet?
Three large cars win top award from IIHS
And Tesla wasn't one of them. Got only an acceptable rating in the small overlap test again, not a good one.
2017 Tesla Model S (models built after January 2017) 40 mph small overlap IIHS crash test
Three large cars win top award from IIHS
And Tesla wasn't one of them. Got only an acceptable rating in the small overlap test again, not a good one.
2017 Tesla Model S (models built after January 2017) 40 mph small overlap IIHS crash test
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I realize that.
I think he said accelerate, although he did use the phrase "super-exponential" before.
Also, some here have more experience in utilities than I do, and they say utilities make decisions extremely slowly.
Finally, did the Solar Roof installations start?
I'm assuming $1.5B for TE this year, and $5B next. I don't want to be any more optimistic than that until I see some acceleration.
Debunked? Because of Tesla's statement?
Read before you spread FUD all over. I just noticed you even created a separate thread in this regard and you are yapping in multiple threads on same topic.
Read the Tesla response again. IIHS is one of a dozen so called independent agencies with their own subjective tests. NHTSA, the official US govt agency has given top ratings to Tesla. I trust them more than anything.
Reciprocity
Active Member
The demand question.. why it's silly to think there is some kind of demand issue:
1) the market for large luxury cars and SUVs both have a fairly set size. Assuming that you might think that Tesla had reached saturation with anywhere from 30-40% share in the US for the S. But that value is only the base, as 2013-2016 cars come off leases or are traded in for newer models the base will be enhanced by recurring orders, meaning if you can add 30,000 customers in 2016 in the US, you can add that many customers every year as a base. As those cars age, something like 90% will buy a Tesla again, so for the next few years at the least the total sales in the US will continue to go up based on the growth over the passes 3-5 years.
1.5) can't believe I forgot this. Tesla still can't sell in every state in the US. Huge markets are still not ideally serviced. This will change over the next year. This will help improve sales growth as some people won't but the car if they can't get service. Model 3 is forcing expansion of service and Supercharging, which benefits model S/X more then congestion at an individual Supercharger or service center. Let's not forget that shortchanging for model 3 will not be free, free Supercharging is 90% of the reason I go to a super charger. There expansion us making it infinitly more convenient. In Chicago there are a half a dozen Superchargers in a 20 mile radius. There used to only be 3 just a month ago.
2) I focused on the US and the model S first because it is the most mature market and a good example of what we should see world wide. There are places where the S has just started selling, like UAE, South Korea which are not small car markets. There are also outliers like Norway where they are moving completely to electric and Tesla has the only car in the class which would give it more like 90% market share. All of the less mature markets will continue to grow and those cars will eventually roll over to new models.
3) model X had just recently got normal production levels, aside from the recent 100KWh battery production issue. This entire brand has realistically only 1.5 years in the market. Tesla didn't even have test drive and show room cars in all stores until recently. How do you grow in a market with out being able to manufacture even enough cars for demo? The answer is that this market is really only in ours infancy in the US and had much larger prospects world wide. In 1.5 years the X in the US will be in a similar place the S is today only the base market for large luxury SUVs is about 2-3 times the size for their large luxury car cousins. I don't believe the X will capture 40% if the market like the S but I could see 30% from the current penetration of approx. 10%.
4) model 3 could be eating into to some of that model S demand, but that pressure will flip when the 3 hits the streets in mass and tax credits start to pass out. If you didn't reserve day one, you won't get the full tax credit, period. This will drive massive demand in the US for model S which will be available and I have theorized that Tesla will pull some levers to rachet up production in anticipation. I believe this group of people are those that could not afford an S but last year would have found a way to get it, saved up or cut expenses to fit the S in their budgets. Don't underestimate the size of this group. They will eventually be model 3 customers and anyone who loves Tesla enough to give to lattes and movie channels for are going to be great long term customers that will eventually but an S/X. The issue is that has inflated the base above but should only be a tiny fraction of that base, maybe 5% or 1500 model S per year going forward. People uprating to the new model after their lease or after the first 5 years should more then compensate going forward. Next year alone 5K should be in this group every quarter. Base + turnover next year should go from 30k - 1500 + 16k (90% of 5k/Q from 2015) = 36k or 20% increase over 2016. There could be a plateau in the US in 2019, but the rest of the world will just be maturing and turnover will just be getting started in ernest so sales for S should continue to grow into 2020 world wide.
5) model X should lag model S by a year or so. Only a year because it had the advantages of piggy backing on the groundwork of model S expansion. Supercharging maturity, more stores compared to the same point in the cycle for the S.
6) exposure to model 3 will help bolster the brand more then the vampire effect on S sales noted above. I see the model Y being a bigger drag on model X but only because the small SUV is so popular and the market size so large. With battery costs coming down so quickly, the Y hitting the market in mass in 2020 should end many competitors ability to stay afloat. 2020 is also when model X will finally have full market penetration so it's good timing for mass production of the Y to contribute to growth. If you are Tesla and you're going to lose sales, lose them to Tesla.
This supposed demand issue is silly, just apply some basic logic and simple math. Tesla still has room to grow everywhere.
1) the market for large luxury cars and SUVs both have a fairly set size. Assuming that you might think that Tesla had reached saturation with anywhere from 30-40% share in the US for the S. But that value is only the base, as 2013-2016 cars come off leases or are traded in for newer models the base will be enhanced by recurring orders, meaning if you can add 30,000 customers in 2016 in the US, you can add that many customers every year as a base. As those cars age, something like 90% will buy a Tesla again, so for the next few years at the least the total sales in the US will continue to go up based on the growth over the passes 3-5 years.
1.5) can't believe I forgot this. Tesla still can't sell in every state in the US. Huge markets are still not ideally serviced. This will change over the next year. This will help improve sales growth as some people won't but the car if they can't get service. Model 3 is forcing expansion of service and Supercharging, which benefits model S/X more then congestion at an individual Supercharger or service center. Let's not forget that shortchanging for model 3 will not be free, free Supercharging is 90% of the reason I go to a super charger. There expansion us making it infinitly more convenient. In Chicago there are a half a dozen Superchargers in a 20 mile radius. There used to only be 3 just a month ago.
2) I focused on the US and the model S first because it is the most mature market and a good example of what we should see world wide. There are places where the S has just started selling, like UAE, South Korea which are not small car markets. There are also outliers like Norway where they are moving completely to electric and Tesla has the only car in the class which would give it more like 90% market share. All of the less mature markets will continue to grow and those cars will eventually roll over to new models.
3) model X had just recently got normal production levels, aside from the recent 100KWh battery production issue. This entire brand has realistically only 1.5 years in the market. Tesla didn't even have test drive and show room cars in all stores until recently. How do you grow in a market with out being able to manufacture even enough cars for demo? The answer is that this market is really only in ours infancy in the US and had much larger prospects world wide. In 1.5 years the X in the US will be in a similar place the S is today only the base market for large luxury SUVs is about 2-3 times the size for their large luxury car cousins. I don't believe the X will capture 40% if the market like the S but I could see 30% from the current penetration of approx. 10%.
4) model 3 could be eating into to some of that model S demand, but that pressure will flip when the 3 hits the streets in mass and tax credits start to pass out. If you didn't reserve day one, you won't get the full tax credit, period. This will drive massive demand in the US for model S which will be available and I have theorized that Tesla will pull some levers to rachet up production in anticipation. I believe this group of people are those that could not afford an S but last year would have found a way to get it, saved up or cut expenses to fit the S in their budgets. Don't underestimate the size of this group. They will eventually be model 3 customers and anyone who loves Tesla enough to give to lattes and movie channels for are going to be great long term customers that will eventually but an S/X. The issue is that has inflated the base above but should only be a tiny fraction of that base, maybe 5% or 1500 model S per year going forward. People uprating to the new model after their lease or after the first 5 years should more then compensate going forward. Next year alone 5K should be in this group every quarter. Base + turnover next year should go from 30k - 1500 + 16k (90% of 5k/Q from 2015) = 36k or 20% increase over 2016. There could be a plateau in the US in 2019, but the rest of the world will just be maturing and turnover will just be getting started in ernest so sales for S should continue to grow into 2020 world wide.
5) model X should lag model S by a year or so. Only a year because it had the advantages of piggy backing on the groundwork of model S expansion. Supercharging maturity, more stores compared to the same point in the cycle for the S.
6) exposure to model 3 will help bolster the brand more then the vampire effect on S sales noted above. I see the model Y being a bigger drag on model X but only because the small SUV is so popular and the market size so large. With battery costs coming down so quickly, the Y hitting the market in mass in 2020 should end many competitors ability to stay afloat. 2020 is also when model X will finally have full market penetration so it's good timing for mass production of the Y to contribute to growth. If you are Tesla and you're going to lose sales, lose them to Tesla.
This supposed demand issue is silly, just apply some basic logic and simple math. Tesla still has room to grow everywhere.
Last edited:
One of a dozen so-called independent agencies!?!? Please name the other 11. Don't get me wrong the CNBC article had a pretty obvious negative spin but the IIHS itself is basically the only other agency that anyone pays attention to in the US. So Tesla is only acceptable with the relatively new small overlap test. 2 out of the 3 cars that got the highest mark in this test were completely redesigned for 2017. Maybe Tesla figured it out for the Model 3 but either way it is the same test that all automakers are getting and a large number of them are having a hard time getting the 'good' rating. Only a complete redesign will be able to pass and I have high confidence Tesla will get it right when they release a full redesign in a couple years.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Insurance industry wants Tesla dead.
The US government's safety agency has rated both Model S and Model X top safety.
Read this part of the Tesla response carefully:
"Tesla defends the Model S and its safety record. In a statement to CNBC, a Tesla rep said: "Tesla's Model S received the highest rating in IIHS's crash testing in every category except for one, the small overlap front crash test, where it received the second highest rating available. While IIHS and dozens of other private industry groups around the world have methods and motivations that suit their own subjective purposes, the most objective and accurate independent testing of vehicle safety is currently done by the U.S. government, which found Model S and Model X to be the two cars with the lowest probability of injury of any cars that it has ever tested, making them the safest cars in history."
No idea if you are a troll or not but the forum will be just fine if you wish to extend your vacations from it.
There is a huge difference on forum between reasoned bear contributors and long standing trolls. The former elicit friendly discussion about their analysis and facts, the latter are ignored or pointed out as frauds.
But many cars fail the small overlap test since it was introduced in 2012. Sound familiar? Some new car was released that same year. So in their first production car Tesla failed to design for a test they probably didn't even realize was coming - or if they did it was probably too late. I don't see how the test existing is a bad thing and it sounds like Tesla did fairly well regardless. Someone has to do a better job explaining to me where the conspiracy is here. The negative spin is one thing and it is really sad that almost all news sources do this but the test and rating is completely fair IMHO.
OK, really? Great, Tesla is learning how to do their own PR spin. The truth is right there in the middle. The Model S and X are very safe cars. IIHS and NHTSA are the only 2 major agencies in the US that do crash testing. NHTSA gives Tesla 5 stars in every category and IIHS gives Tesla their highest mark in all but the small overlap test. I cannot believe people are seeing more than these simple facts.
Today Show spot about Tesla/model 3: Cross posted to 'Market thread' as well
Elon Musk’s big gamble: Tesla set to roll out new $35,000 electric car
Elon Musk’s big gamble: Tesla set to roll out new $35,000 electric car
there are many. perhaps an app or something for newusers "These users are ignored by "X" number of people or these folks have greater than "X" number of disagrees. give that a weighted function of some kind and
make a "Believeability index" or similar.
it could be tweaked by folks having a high "believeability index" have greater weight of their ignores or dislikes. like a WMA or EMA as opposed to a SMA.
(there's gotta be an 'app 4 that')
just a random thought
Initially I bugged out about it to, but it's pretty damning to not question if there is an agenda if there are no 7 series or S Class on the list. IIHS also has an incredibly small list of vehicles it has tested.
- Status
Similar threads
- Sticky
