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Reciprocity
Active Member
Our respectful disagreement (besides heralding a welcome return to forum decorum) seems to boil down to which of two likely effects proves more significant. I'll agree that BMW, MB and Audi MS competitors won't go to 0% if you'll agree there is no reason they could not go to 7 or 8% as Tesla penetrates the awareness of non EV luxury car customers! That is all that's needed to keep MS/MX growth going as M3 wave comes to shore. I'd posit that you are right that Eco and EV early adopters will stop 'stretching' to get MS once reasonably optioned M3 are available. But...I'll virtually bet you this boost effect to MS/MX sales will not be missed as the FAR larger new car buying public becomes much more aware of Tesla brand and EV choices. The number of 'Hey, check out the acceleration of my new Tesla' drives are going to rise steeply for the next 2 - 3 years. Won't Volvo's luxury and safety oriented customers ready for a new car in that class not consider MS/MX now that Volvo has declared they are abandoning ICE over next few years? Only time will tell if the push ahead effects of M3 will outweigh the pull back ones. I just doubt that high end ICE customers of Volvo, Audi, etc. will mostly decide to get stuck for years with the last production runs of cars with a drivetrain these companies have declared they now view as obsolete.
I think the confusion between us, I'm sure it's my fault, relates to the market being artificially high because of the unique nature of the Tesla customer. Tesla has also positioned the model S to somewhat straddle the large and mid sized luxury sedan market which also pulls sales from 5 series and E class level cars, probably even more so then from Camry and Prius. Model S share of this inflated market is 30+% if you remove the Prius and Camry and 5 series/E class converted customers assuming they are moving to the model 3, the share of the inflated market goes down, but the market also shrinks. It would be an interesting and a difficult effort to actually look at the sales of the large luxury sadan market over the past 5 years to determine an estimate of how much impact this model S inflation has had. In theory the market as a whole should shrink over the next 12 months as model S owners that used to be Prius owners downgrade. In that sense the model S percentage share will actually go up but it's a share of a smaller market. The good thing is that if you are doing to lose market share to someone, lose it to yourself. After 2018, then yes you could see Tesla's share eclipse 40 precent and others drop to 7-8% on the high end. But even the great model S will plateau unless car companies don't react and start going out of business, which could happen.
What I see is more differentiation between S and 3 and allowing fully optioned and thus higher margin 3 (compared to base S) to take on e class and 5 series all while improving margins for the model S as it goes further up market. Similar totals for cars sold at those levels but much better margins because the cars are appropriately fitting the segments. The allows Tesla to capture more of the meaty party of the market and hurt the competition more.
Only time will tell, but I see Tesla being more like Apple iPhone where they only have 34% market share in the US but 90+% of the profits
I wonder if this means something.
T3slaTulips
Member
A picture of a Model 3 VIN tag would be a better response.
larmor
Active Member
But that would continue to feed the bear and the bear would continue to bite the hand that feeds it... Keep up the QA and take your time tesla!
ValueAnalyst
Closed
According to Electrek's article, Tesla is moving around a few people in a little more than a handful of stores:
I wouldn't expect this to have much impact on SG&A; however, SG&A will decline in the next few months as, from what I understand, Tesla has been pretty aggressive in cutting SolarCity SG&A. I would expect some one-time termination-related (ie. severance? other?) expenses in 2Q17, and a larger drop in 3Q17.
The following are my SG&A:Revenue assumptions for the following few quarters:
2017 improvement is driven by SolarCity restructuring and 2018 decline is driven by top-line growth due to Model 3. My analysis primarily included studying trends in Apple's and other hyper-growth companies' SG&A:Revenue ratios as they grew throughout their history.
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When can we expect the reduction in posts to begin?I will likely be dramatically reducing my posts in the future as I need to focus on a few other things in the coming weeks.
Just wanted to add onto today's set of good news
And where did the other 9000 cars go they produced but not delivered and are not in the pipeline?
The thing is, it is one of the milder articles of the week....guess none of the others were written by a Charlie.
Excellent article from The Guardian. Best summary I've read of the symbolic importance of the S. Australia project, our trend of discounting facts and science in politics and public discourse and Elon's continued assault on the reality distortion imposed on people by politicians, utilities, big oil and those who want to maintain the status quo Because it benefits them personally at the expense of the community.
Elon Musk's big battery brings reality crashing into a post-truth world | Tim Hollo
I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree* with you here.
Since I have an old, slow, blind 2013 car, I have no chance for Autopilot, and yet, "I will never buy another non-EV" because I believe the drivetrain itself (quiet, torquey and responsive, one-pedal driving) is the game changer.
* Mostly in jest... I do agree awareness is not there yet.
erthquake
Active Member
Bear attack not over. Now all the opinion pieces come out to try to pile on.
Tesla’s bad week gets worse as Elon Musk’s credibility takes another hit
The loaner / floor model fleet after usage gets sold as used inventory at big discounts. So this gap between produced and delivered will keep increasing as the inventory gets refreshed. Cost of doing business.
erthquake
Active Member
Also seems like the bears have learned how to game the news section of the iPhone's Stocks app, especially by re-timestamping older news.
This happens all the time. I've seen it in the Yahoo finance app, and in my Google finance news feed.
Edit: My Robinhood news feed for TSLA is the worst. Most of what I get there are the Leeching Alphalpha troll posts.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Someone theorized, and it's a good theory and kind of brilliant, that they are wanting to use P100D because the margins on the car are so high that they can use them as loaner, test drive and floor models and still sell them at a profit as the refresh the fleet every couple of months. We have to guess on the difference in cost between the 100Ds and the P version but I imagine they can still sell them at a profit with 2 months and 4000 miles on them. Typically they take off $1000 a month and $1 a mile on trades so that would only be $6000 though they would probably have drop it another $7500 because the used sale won't get the tax credit, but that still only adds up to 10% of the original sticker price so much of the margin is still on tact. Maybe as much as 30% as the P versions have big margins.
Showroom/test drive cars aren't "used" as they haven't been titled, so they still qualify for the federal $7,500 tax credit.
Krugerrand
Meow
I ordered my Speedos online without trying them on first... and apparently they look good on me, at least according to my girlfriend...
That said, I did check out the car in person before buying it, so you have a point.
Marry her and then you'll find out what she really thinks of the Speedos.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Are we reading the same thread? I would not really call that positive.
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