2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Troy]

Thanks to @Troy - 7% of existing owners have reservations as of the Q1 earnings call

This is going to sound a little tricky but that is not actually what Tesla says here. They said 7% of reservation holders are Tesla owners, not 7% of owners are reservation holders. The second percentage is much higher and it is possible to calculate it. Here is my attempt:

Tesla made that statement on 4 May 2016. At that time, the Model 3 reservation count was 348,529 units (after the cleanup removing cancellations and duplicates). 7% would be 24,397 units. On the same day, the global Tesla fleet was 129,980 units. Therefore 24,397/129,980= 18.8% of existing Tesla owners reserved a Model 3.

 

[mmd]

Someone else just posted that the Buena Park Enterprise ordered 8 MSs, but they have only gotten two of them so far: Battery Charge Level Will Be Restricted

It's called fleet sales. So is this how the lower end of the guidance was met?

From the post about Buena Vista:

.. the Enterprise rep at Buena Park told me Enterprise had just purchased eight Model S 75 kWh cars, and had just taken delivery of the first two. These cars will be rented to service center customers when the SC runs out of loaners.

a) If the cars are purchased but not delivered at the end of Q2, can more than the deposit (limited to the purchase price) be counted in the customer deposit at end of Q2? That will fudge up the customer deposit number quite a bit.
b) If these cars will only be rented to Tesla owners in for service when the SC runs out of Tesla loaners, meaning the cars will be sitting idle other times, Enterprise must have gotten a really really good deal to agree to this arrangement. Any comments?

 

[Reciprocity]

This is going to sound a little tricky but that is not actually what Tesla says here. They said 7% of reservation holders are Tesla owners, not 7% of owners are reservation holders. The second percentage is much higher and it is possible to calculate it. Here is my attempt:

Tesla made that statement on 4 May 2016. At that time, the Model 3 reservation count was 348,529 units (after the cleanup removing cancellations and duplicates). 7% would be 24,397 units. On the same day, the global Tesla fleet was 129,980 units. Therefore 24,397/129,980= 18.8% of existing Tesla owners reserved a Model 3.

I actually did mean 7% of reservations are from existing S/X owners. I think your total S owners numbers are US only. World wide should be closer to 200,000 or more.

Edit: nevermind see may 2016 fleet size. I was just trying to figure out how many used cars would hit the market. 30% of 24,397 is even a smaller number then I was estimating.

 

[erthquake]

The Free Folk will not bend the knee to The King in The North much less the Fresh King in Bel-Air.

Maybe we should start referring to the shorts as the White Walkers. Summer's coming, Bitches!

 

[AlMc]

Maybe we should start referring to the shorts as the White Walkers. Summer's coming, Bitches!

Personally, I think the shorts should be called Lannisters as'they always pay their debts'

 

[elasalle]

It's called fleet sales. So is this how the lower end of the guidance was met?

From the post about Buena Vista:


a) If the cars are purchased but not delivered at the end of Q2, can more than the deposit (limited to the purchase price) be counted in the customer deposit at end of Q2? That will fudge up the customer deposit number quite a bit.
b) If these cars will only be rented to Tesla owners in for service when the SC runs out of Tesla loaners, meaning the cars will be sitting idle other times, Enterprise must have gotten a really really good deal to agree to this arrangement. Any comments?

Hertz and Avis are jumping after news of big tech partnerships (CAR, HTZ, AAPL, GOOGL) | 06/26/17

This might just be another partnership that has not been mentioned so far ... Sometimes "Actions speak Louder than Words"

 

[jhm]

Negative. Super-exponential is a mathematical term, not some filler BS

4. Superexponential Growth (J-curves) – The Foresight Guide

This may help some folks.

I think of superexponentiality as period within the rate of growth increase. Exponential growth is when the rate of growth (relative to current level) is constant. But sometimes new technology or feedback from other systems can actually speed up the rate of growth. Other times the rate of growth can decline due to limits and saturation, which would be subexponential.

So If someone is spouting off about superexponential growth, all they are saying is that they think the rate of growth is increasing.

 

[Drumheller]

4. Superexponential Growth (J-curves) – The Foresight Guide

This may help some folks.

I think of superexponentiality as period within the rate of growth increase. Exponential growth is when the rate of growth (relative to current level) is constant. But sometimes new technology or feedback from other systems can actually speed up the rate of growth. Other times the rate of growth can decline due to limits and saturation, which would be subexponential.

So If someone is spouting off about superexponential growth, all they are saying is that they think the rate of growth is increasing.

Thank you! I had a fair bit of math background in my studies and don't recall ever hearing the term, "superexponential" so I also thought it was a made-up word. Appreciate learning something new.

 

[jhm]

Thank you! I had a fair bit of math background in my studies and don't recall ever hearing the term, "superexponential" so I also thought it was a made-up word. Appreciate learning something new.

No problem.

BTW, mathematically the log of a superexponential function is convex. So if you plot it out on a log scale, it's not linear but curves up.

 

[SPadival]

She explained to me that the local Enterprise car rental just recently took delivery of 25 MSs and the in-house loaner program just started. Only bad part is that she explained the car has AP disabled. I guess Enterprise is worried about liability. Zzzzz

It may have something to do with people like Tom @talkingtesla turning on the one month free trial on the rental car. Hahaha.

 

[Dagger]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Reciprocity]

Elon: Production unit 1 of Model 3 is now built and going through final checkout. Pics soon.

From Twitter just now!

@Dagger beat me with the dagger in the ballroom!

Fun watching the retweets and favorites clicking off. Any better on how many favorites? 75k+ at a minimum.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Negative. Super-exponential is a mathematical term, not some filler BS

Don't you mean super BS?

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 234758
Elon Musk on Twitter

Time for a re-run from our fun archives:

 

[JRP3]

Elon gets Model 3 SN1
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Dagger]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[TMSE]

Elon gets Model 3 SN1
Elon Musk on Twitter

I guess he wants to do all the testing that he can

 

[LoveTSLA]

I guess he wants to do all the testing that he can

Oh please. It is much more significant than that. Elon deserve it! This man make our life better.

 

[JRP3]

Wonder if he was sleeping on the line for this one Maybe he did part of the build, I would.

 

[Zaxxon]

Maybe we should start referring to the shorts as the White Walkers. Summer's coming, Bitches!

Personally, I think the shorts should be called Lannisters as'they always pay their debts'

Let's not insult the Others or the Lannisters... Shorts reside in Flea Bottom.