Sure... but that's a big part of the reason why we are back in the 315's, in a likely trading range of 295 - 340. Right now, the July 2017 build of the first one can be seen as "faked" as it can be hand built to final, deliverable spec. But the financial performance and therefore the stock price is looking 3-9 months ahead and wondering what the next few quarters will bring. And specifically, is the volume ramp really going to be in Q3 or in Q4? That's why it is even more important that we, as investors, understand where Tesla stands in the ramp. And maybe the company knows their ramp at this juncture, barring unexpected surprises and maybe they don't. In any case, the new guidance for the ramp is already far better than the Model S and X.
Model 3 guidance: 30, 100, 1500+, x, y, 5000/week at some point
Model S: 12, 19, 43, 86, 300, 400, 1790
Model X: 6, 4, 5, 199, 270, 270, 1860
Overall, we are still stuck in the aftermath of the badly botched Model X launch. It causes a significant discounting of what the company says at times. And so we have a lot of volatility.
Too many weak longs sold out at the first real sign of trouble... it's part of having run up so far so fast. I did think we would drop, but I thought we would be in a new range... and we just need a little bit of re-assurance now I think to get back a bit. It took a NASDAQ roll over, a loosely coordinated bear attack that includes lots of media pieces, a disappointing but met-lower-end-of-guidance delivery number, and a missing sentence on number of cars in transit to get us here. I do think it's overdone. But the kind of news to get us back on track above $350 is going to be about production.
