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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I don't think they do. I'm hearing all sorts of chatter from people I run into everyday who've never said a word before about buying a Tesla, now lusting for a Model 3. A few weeks ago one acquaintance put down their $1,000, today someone else I know, who I had no idea even knew Tesla existed, is putting down a deposit, wants the AWD version and knows they'll have wait at least a year for it - read, they've done their homework.

This car is already selling itself. Once people start seeing it on the road, in parking lots, get a chance to test drive it - yeah, non-issue. Although I fully expect to hear some version of 'Model 3 demand has plateaued' in a few months.
Exactly. People at work that isn't car people were talking about the "cheaper" Tesla.
 
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Is Tesla’s truck goal really a battery leasing program?

The only things that make me question some of the stated assumptions is a) Tesla's track record of brilliant strategic thinking and generally getting the large math right enough from day one (actually, from day zero); b) Adam Jonas' (a bastion of solid, consistently reasonable thinking :eek:) being included in the article; c) the hope that the John Petersen quoted is not *that* John Petersen (apologies to all those John Petersens who are not *that* John Petersen).
 
Yep. Sky is falling. End of the world. Demand problems galore. :rolleyes:
I do think it is important to keep the pump primed and running (purchasing traffic in the stores) next summer.

The key is tons of testimonials from people about the economic sense the car makes, with a testimonial time constant to drive traffic in the summer. That means a lot of $35K versions in the hands of the middle class in December and January and February.

What Tesla really needs is a recommendation from this guy:

The Total Money Makeover: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness

View attachment 239565

What would it take to actually get that?...

I'm all for being cautious and asking the right questions, but is anyone really worried about demand? Assuming there are no crucial design flaws this car is best in class, it's going to sell it itself for years to come, and it doesn't even drive itself yet. BMW sold over 400k 3 series last year, it's hard to imagine anyone comparing the two and still deciding to go with the BMW. And that's only one series of one competing brand. 106k of those 3 series were sold in the US, it's going to be interesting to see what happens to that number over the next year or two.BMW 3 Series - Wikipedia
 
I'm all for being cautious and asking the right questions, but is anyone really worried about demand? 106k of those 3 series were sold in the US, it's going to be interesting to see what happens to that number over the next year or two.BMW 3 Series - Wikipedia

Yes, step transitions in price of 10% tend to cause customers to rethink, balk and then mostly come back after 3 weeks.

If you are trying to create momentum, the balk causes even more people to balk and pretty soon the machine is not running so great and you have to discount or do things that hurt the company like ship only internationally and let the showroom sales dry up. Choppy water can take the wind out of your sails. Then you have to build momentum again. If you want to really gap people, you plan for the chop and power up before, so you can drive through.

If you integrate contribution dollars over the next two years, you don't try to coast through next summer on $50,000 cars, or by introducing the $35K car suddenly then. Rather you:
  1. Establish a reference price of $50K this autumn.
  2. Salt the middle class with $35K cars this winter. Enough to get local promotion based on legit economics, that are now locally endorsed.
  3. Power through next summer with zero distress and a healthy mix.
The edge of the incentive should not be accentuated by a perceivable change in product mix.

Transitions can spill money. If you work like crazy to make them imperceptible there are huge financial benefits.
 
Is Tesla’s truck goal really a battery leasing program?

The only things that make me question some of the stated assumptions is a) Tesla's track record of brilliant strategic thinking and generally getting the large math right enough from day one (actually, from day zero); b) Adam Jonas' (a bastion of solid, consistently reasonable thinking :eek:) being included in the article; c) the hope that the John Petersen quoted is not *that* John Petersen (apologies to all those John Petersens who are not *that* John Petersen).

Hey, props to the analysts who are at least trying to get their heads around the possibilities for Tesla Semi. That alone puts them at the head of the pack (ok, I admit it's a low bar).

Could be a lot worse than a $750 billion battery leasing business. The bulk of the money with the Semi business is in fueling, which for an EV Semi is batteries plus electricity.

Becoming the Exxon of the Semi business (either through battery swap or charging) requires affordable batteries plus a charging network along Interstates. Gee, I wonder who could do that?
 
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Yes, step transitions in price of 10% tend to cause customers to rethink, balk and then mostly come back after 3 weeks.

If you are trying to create momentum, the balk causes even more people to balk and pretty soon the machine is not running so great and you have to discount or do things that hurt the company like ship only internationally and let the showroom sales dry up. Choppy water can take the wind out of your sails. Then you have to build momentum again. If you want to really gap people, you plan for the chop and power up before, so you can drive through.

If you integrate contribution dollars over the next two years, you don't try to coast through next summer on $50,000 cars, or by introducing the $35K car suddenly then. Rather you:
  1. Establish a reference price of $50K this autumn.
  2. Salt the middle class with $35K cars this winter. Enough to get local promotion based on legit economics, that are now locally endorsed.
  3. Power through next summer with zero distress and a healthy mix.
The edge of the incentive should not be accentuated by a perceivable change in product mix.

Transitions can spill money. If you work like crazy to make them imperceptible there are huge financial benefits.
Yeah I'm sure they will be strategic about pricing and pretty much everything and it's good to be cautious, the car could end up being a lemon for some reason. IIRC the model S originally started out at 50k before credits and they discontinued that fairly quickly, which I suppose might happen with the model 3, but then again I wouldn't be surprised if they lower the price too. But the thing is, if this this is a) the safest car in it's class b) cheapest to own c) extremely high customer satisfaction d) drives itself at some point and potentially even generates money for customers, it's a no brainer at 35k or 50k, nobody is going to balk unless they do a bad job with it. The model 3 is an iPhone, all it's competition for now is a Blackberry or Nokia.
 
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I appreciate the simplicity - no 0% financing, or we'll make your first 5 payments, or mfr. rebate with $1,500 dealer cash - just drop the price.

The other day I saw an ad for $8500 off an MSRP of $37k.

In small print the ad said you must finance through the dealership and you must have a FICO score BELOW 600. First time I have seen an ad mentioning buyer credit worthiness and instead of restricting deal to well qualified buyers it was for poorly qualified buyers.

This dealer,apparently, wanted to get into the loan sharking business instead of the selling cars business.
 
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