2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[RobStark]

Audi on fuel cells: Maybe later

"I'm sure [VW Group] thinks that at some point the technology and cost of fuel cells will all make sense in certain circumstances like commercial use, and they want to have a stake in that game when it does," Brauer said. "But everything you heard in Frankfurt was dead set on EVs as the near-term solution."

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I've been pointing to an upcoming surge in oil prices for some time now:

IEA: Price Spike Coming In 2020 | OilPrice.com

I expect the surge to happen earlier than IEA's estimate, starting later this year.

I repeat: Demand for Tesla's products will be higher than we all expect. Production ramp should be accelerated, again.

 

[kenliles]

"<
Uber lost its license this week to operate in London, beginning in October. Transportation regulators said the decision was made "in relation to a number of issues which have potential public safety and security implications."
[ ]
Dara Khosrowshahi, who was officially announced as Uber's new CEO at the end of August, sent an email to staff saying that disappointed by the situation in London, and that he doesn't believe everything being said about Uber in London is true.
But Khosrowshahi also wrote that employees should resist the urge to call all the criticism unfair, and should instead opt for "self-reflection."
>"

----
Full internal employee email from Dara Khosrowshahi (new CEO):
From: Dara Khosrowshahi
Date: Fri, Sep 22, 2017 at 12:53 PM
Subject: Re: Update on London's License

Thanks Pierre, and thanks to everyone working on this issue.

Like all of you, I'm hugely disappointed in the decision by London's Mayor and Transport for London. It could have profound negative consequences for the 40,000 drivers who depend on Uber for work and the 3.5 million Londoners who rely on Uber to get around.

It's particularly discouraging that this is happening in the UK, where the team has led the way on partnerships with local groups to increase the number of wheelchair-accessible and electric vehicles on the road.

While the impulse may be to say that this is unfair, one of the lessons I've learned over time is that change comes from self-reflection. So it's worth examining how we got here. The truth is that there is a high cost to a bad reputation. Irrespective of whether we did everything that is being said about us in London today (and to be clear, I don't think we did), it really matters what people think of us, especially in a global business like ours, where actions in one part of the world can have serious consequences in another.

Going forward, it's critical that we act with integrity in everything we do, and learn how to be a better partner to every city we operate in. That doesn't mean abandoning our principles—we will vigorously appeal TfL's decision—but rather building trust through our actions and our behavior. In doing so, we will show that Uber is not just a really great product, but a really great company that is meaningfully contributing to society, beyond its business and its bottom line.

Thanks for everything you're doing to make Uber the best company it can be, and particularly to our teammates in London and across the UK.

-Dara



----
Uber CEO on losing London license: 'There is a high cost to a bad reputation'

 

[Crowded Mind]

"<
Uber lost its license this week to operate in London, beginning in October. Transportation regulators said the decision was made "in relation to a number of issues which have potential public safety and security implications."
[ ]
Dara Khosrowshahi, who was officially announced as Uber's new CEO at the end of August, sent an email to staff saying that disappointed by the situation in London, and that he doesn't believe everything being said about Uber in London is true.
But Khosrowshahi also wrote that employees should resist the urge to call all the criticism unfair, and should instead opt for "self-reflection."
>"

----
Full internal employee email from Dara Khosrowshahi (new CEO):
From: Dara Khosrowshahi
Date: Fri, Sep 22, 2017 at 12:53 PM
Subject: Re: Update on London's License

Thanks Pierre, and thanks to everyone working on this issue.

Like all of you, I'm hugely disappointed in the decision by London's Mayor and Transport for London. It could have profound negative consequences for the 40,000 drivers who depend on Uber for work and the 3.5 million Londoners who rely on Uber to get around.

It's particularly discouraging that this is happening in the UK, where the team has led the way on partnerships with local groups to increase the number of wheelchair-accessible and electric vehicles on the road.

While the impulse may be to say that this is unfair, one of the lessons I've learned over time is that change comes from self-reflection. So it's worth examining how we got here. The truth is that there is a high cost to a bad reputation. Irrespective of whether we did everything that is being said about us in London today (and to be clear, I don't think we did), it really matters what people think of us, especially in a global business like ours, where actions in one part of the world can have serious consequences in another.

Going forward, it's critical that we act with integrity in everything we do, and learn how to be a better partner to every city we operate in. That doesn't mean abandoning our principles—we will vigorously appeal TfL's decision—but rather building trust through our actions and our behavior. In doing so, we will show that Uber is not just a really great product, but a really great company that is meaningfully contributing to society, beyond its business and its bottom line.

Thanks for everything you're doing to make Uber the best company it can be, and particularly to our teammates in London and across the UK.

-Dara



----
Uber CEO on losing London license: 'There is a high cost to a bad reputation'

Impressive. Looks like Uber might have found an actual leader.

 

[DurandalAI]

Off Topic:

Does anyone know how Elon tracks his progress vs. goals? Spreadsheet? Sharing them with close friends? Twitter?

I was told by my advisors that tracking my goals more closely would help me improve focus. Looking for an effective method.

I don't know what Musk does, but many people use Microsoft Project for tracking projects/goals. For free collaborative versions, you could use things like Trello.

 

[Paracelsus]

Austin owner answering questions on M3OC: #131

Lots of ear to ear smiles.

It's over folks. The 3 is going to be a runaway success. Once they get the ramp going, Tesla becomes a juggernaut.

This is an excellent post and the link provided is well worth exploring. Reading the excitement between the lines of the enthusiastic new Model 3 owner sharing his experience with wonderfully inquisitive people from around the globe.......staying up too late and getting up too early the next day to continue.........really hammers home your point @erthquake - that this is already a 'runaway success', and also that the world is hungrier for this than WS has ever prepared themselves for. And with the benefit of social media, the number of people that will become exposed to the facts regarding how advanced Tesla vehicles are compared to every other vehicle in production will grow exponentially, just like how we have all watched the number of Elon's twitter followers grow exponentially (which BTW could break the 13,000,000 mark this weekend). More proof that people feel Elon & Tesla are good for our planet.

It will take more than BS hit pieces to bring the stock price down as the number of people that are touched by the Good News grows exponentially around the globe and the number of potential investors grows accordingly. I wouldn't be surprised if the next move out of the WS playbook is to start claiming Fake News regarding the Model 3 Good News. Doesn't history repeat itself when any entity has success?

 

[geneclean55]

Tesla’s 90D qualifies for government subsidies

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Moved from the Market Action thread:

The person who took delivery of a Model 3 in Texas has been generously participating in a Q&A over at M3OC. He said it’s a blast to drive.

I’m not sure how much more there is to learn about the actual features of Model 3. The Morooney sticker revealed the MPGe and power train type. The body shop repair manual told us much technical detail regarding structural composition. First Responder’s guide shows operation of doors, frunk, and emergency access/egress info.

Much of what’s left to learn are subjective long term evaluations. It will probably be months before a picture of the car’s overall performance and reliability in a variety of conditions will be in clear. I’m optimistic that the lessons of Model S and X have resulted in a great Model 3. The overall quality of the 3s is much better than S or X at early stage of production, in terms of fit/finish.

Thank you for summarizing the Q&A and what we so far know. I think the key aspect that we still don't have much clarity on is autonomy. What's up with the camera? Spaceship-like controls? Can the Model 3 achieve Level 3/4 autonomy, at least in metropoles? I hope to hear more on this in the coming weeks.

 

[kbM3]

Moved from the Market Action thread:



Thank you for summarizing the Q&A and what we so far know. I think the key aspect that we still don't have much clarity on is autonomy. What's up with the camera? Spaceship-like controls? Can the Model 3 achieve Level 3/4 autonomy, at least in metropoles? I hope to hear more on this in the coming weeks.

It is very likely that the spaceship steering system is a feature that was cut when the model three production ramp was moved forward.

Another possibility, is that they want to introduce it on the top end models first.

 

[AlMc]

Some of the new 3 owners are being very generous with their time/info. While I agree with @Krugerrand that we will know more soon enough it is nice to learn about the car, what they are working on, etc. as it gives us an idea of how things are progressing.

One of the concerns brought up on the Austin delivery video was 'problem with the 12 volt system'. The response to a question I posed to a recent 3 owner about it was answered as follows:

Yeah, there's an issue with the car not going into sleep mode & draining the 12v battery. I was just told to not let the charge get real low and it shouldn't be an issue. It's supposed to be resolved soon in an update.

 

[geneclean55]

Software instead of hardware. Phew

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Some of the new 3 owners are being very generous with their time/info. While I agree with @Krugerrand that we will know more soon enough it is nice to learn about the car, what they are working on, etc. as it gives us an idea of how things are progressing.

One of the concerns brought up on the Austin delivery video was 'problem with the 12 volt system'. The response to a question I posed to a recent 3 owner about it was answered as follows:

Yeah, there's an issue with the car not going into sleep mode & draining the 12v battery. I was just told to not let the charge get real low and it shouldn't be an issue. It's supposed to be resolved soon in an update.

12v systems with programming errors are causing more and more problems in cars with lots of electronics. The latest Honda CR-V (5th Generation, MY2017) has a similar issue where engaging the electronic parking brake would prevent the car from going to sleep, even when the ignition was off. The power draw resulted in a car that wouldn’t start the next morning. Honda eventually resolved the issue with a firmware update.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The moment when you skip a word and read the notification:

"@ElonMusk_Newz is following you"

as:

"@ElonMusk is following you"

and your heart stops for a split second...

 

[kenliles]

Reminder
Elon will be presenting SpaceX updated plan to colonize Mars friday (29th)
Down Under at the IAC
It will be live-streamed

Elon Musk at IAC 2017 in Adelaïde | Iaf

 

[22522]

Moved from the Market Action thread:



Thank you for summarizing the Q&A and what we so far know. I think the key aspect that we still don't have much clarity on is autonomy. What's up with the camera? Spaceship-like controls? Can the Model 3 achieve Level 3/4 autonomy, at least in metropoles? I hope to hear more on this in the coming weeks.

The performance of autopilot does matter.
The key to reaching company objectives is volume not margin. So Elon has some metrics tripping him up.

Right now EV and self driving are confounded. If an ICE company delivers self driving at a much lower price point, because the investment is spread over many more customers, that hurts Tesla and Tesla's goals.

Tesla's main objective right now is to push as many Model 3s to customers who would not purchase without the $7,500 rebate as possible. Then price, or rent to own, autopilot to those same people. Margin games right now destroy scale. Scale wins.

 

[bdy0627]

Reminder
Elon will be presenting SpaceX updated plan to colonize Mars friday (29th)
Down Under at the IAC
It will be live-streamed

Elon Musk at IAC 2017 in Adelaïde | Iaf

I really wish he would figure out this Model 3 ramp first and then move on to colonizing Mars stuff.

 

[Skryll]

The performance of autopilot does matter.
The key to reaching company objectives is volume not margin. So Elon has some metrics tripping him up.

Right now EV and self driving are confounded. If an ICE company delivers self driving at a much lower price point, because the investment is spread over many more customers, that hurts Tesla and Tesla's goals.

Tesla's main objective right now is to push as many Model 3s to customers who would not purchase without the $7,500 rebate as possible. Then price, or rent to own, autopilot to those same people. Margin games right now destroy scale. Scale wins.

Not too worried. Just look at recent videos of tesla model 3. The technology advancements are radical, it's not going to be hinging on autopilot alone, nor on the battery advantage, nor on the supercharger network. It's the combination plus everything else they push way past what others do. Autopilot is one nice puzzle piece especially for fleets of distributed ownership (tesla network), but thats it.

 

[22522]

Autopilot is one nice puzzle piece especially for fleets of distributed ownership (tesla network), but thats it.

For a lot of people you are right.

For an aging demographic that wants to live in the home they know, a car that automatically drops them off with people they know, and does not get lost doing it, is very valuable. The expense of an ambulance discourages medical care, or attentiveness to needs for medical care. A car that causes no inconvenience to anyone and takes you to a urgent care center means a lot.

There are less than 10 destinations.

Each one should get an icon.

Push and go.

Like speed dial on an old fashion corded phone.

 

[dennis]

The power draw resulted in a car that wouldn’t start the next morning. Honda eventually resolved the issue with a firmware update.

Did they do that over-the-air?

 

[SBenson]

Moved from the Market Action thread:



Thank you for summarizing the Q&A and what we so far know. I think the key aspect that we still don't have much clarity on is autonomy. What's up with the camera? Spaceship-like controls? Can the Model 3 achieve Level 3/4 autonomy, at least in metropoles? I hope to hear more on this in the coming weeks.

The spaceship controls were later clarified to be just AP2 hardware (and simple manual controls that we all already see on the Model 3).

There is no real chance that Model 3 will somehow leapfrog S/X. On the other hand Model 3 is expected to have the same hardware/software suite as S/X for autonomy... So if you want to know about Tesla's progress on autonomy, we have all the info we ever need, in near realtime, here on TMC and Electrek.

Tesla already claimed their current hardware and future software is fully capable of level 5!

So I am not sure what you are hoping to hear that would be exclusive to Model 3 in next couple of weeks.

How long have you been following Tesla anyway? How could you not be knowing this type of basic stuff if you are running a paid service?