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Mike Smith
Active Member
On Sun July 3 2016 Tesla reported abysmal Q2 deliveries. A huge miss. Only 4600 Model X deliveries.
The next trading day TSLA rose $4 and rose every day that week, and continued rising the rest of the month.
Why? Because they reiterated guidance for the rest of the year. When investors are concerned about a production ramp they don't care what just happened, they only care about whether things are still on track.
This is the same situation now with Model 3. All that will matter is MS/X deliveries and new Model 3 guidance, which they'll give when they announce deliveries. Q3 Model 3 numbers won't matter.
The next trading day TSLA rose $4 and rose every day that week, and continued rising the rest of the month.
Why? Because they reiterated guidance for the rest of the year. When investors are concerned about a production ramp they don't care what just happened, they only care about whether things are still on track.
This is the same situation now with Model 3. All that will matter is MS/X deliveries and new Model 3 guidance, which they'll give when they announce deliveries. Q3 Model 3 numbers won't matter.
MartinAustin
Active Member
No.
The difference is... Tesla can ship something with half-finished software, knowing they can easily issue fixes. Which causes them to ship their product with internally-known bugs... to keep on schedule.
Honda simply didn't know about their bugs. There's no way they wanted to pay dealerships for more under-warranty work.
dennis
Model S Plaid
When Honda found out about their 12V problem, did they stop shipments until they had created a fix? Did they tell the dealers to not sell any cars off the lot until the fix was available to the dealers? Highly unlikely. So what is the difference, other than that Tesla can get the fix installed in the entire fleet much more quickly and with less expense?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla today does this better than Apple, and I hope Tesla never compromises on this.
I also have to focus better, so catch y'all tomorrow.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
dennis
Model S Plaid
RobStark
Well-Known Member
This from end of 2016 IEEE Spectrum article. Many points/facts in it are dubious 9 months later, but it is a serious article and I suspect this was true at the time:
"the vertical integration at the Gigafactory may be missing the biggest cost saver of all: making the cathode materials. CMU’s Ciez says that suppliers of nickel cobalt aluminum oxide and nickel manganese cobalt powders command large markups. Tesla declined to comment on whether the Gigafactory will make these powders."
Has anyone seen anything speaking to whether GF is currently or planned to process the cathode materials from constituents?
Likewise anything as to having lined up sufficient amounts of Li, Co, Ni for target GF cell production for next year?
"the vertical integration at the Gigafactory may be missing the biggest cost saver of all: making the cathode materials. CMU’s Ciez says that suppliers of nickel cobalt aluminum oxide and nickel manganese cobalt powders command large markups. Tesla declined to comment on whether the Gigafactory will make these powders."
Has anyone seen anything speaking to whether GF is currently or planned to process the cathode materials from constituents?
Likewise anything as to having lined up sufficient amounts of Li, Co, Ni for target GF cell production for next year?
Tesla doesn’t need to raise cash anytime soon with their recent unsecured bond offering
Tesla is likely going to substantial increase its popularity to the general public given m3 being driven on streets and avail to be seen in person and at stores (will increase marketing and visibility)
While lots of players are trying to get their electric game on - tesla has mind share and is focused 100% on this. (Think of retailers many years ago building websites to compete with the likes of amazon - while focusing on their existing stores - where are they now?)
Tesla has several new categories (solar roof, powerwall storage, commercial vehicles, etc) that will open up their future enterprise value calculations.
Tesla has a hit with the m3 (based on early indications) - just don’t understand why the paid shorts on here are still battling the envitable. Seems like they are about to get spanked pretty hard with the fact pattern emerging.
Tesla is likely going to substantial increase its popularity to the general public given m3 being driven on streets and avail to be seen in person and at stores (will increase marketing and visibility)
While lots of players are trying to get their electric game on - tesla has mind share and is focused 100% on this. (Think of retailers many years ago building websites to compete with the likes of amazon - while focusing on their existing stores - where are they now?)
Tesla has several new categories (solar roof, powerwall storage, commercial vehicles, etc) that will open up their future enterprise value calculations.
Tesla has a hit with the m3 (based on early indications) - just don’t understand why the paid shorts on here are still battling the envitable. Seems like they are about to get spanked pretty hard with the fact pattern emerging.
Apple’s new phones are powered with their new Bionic SoC chipset suite
(Designed and owned by Apple, chip sets manufacturing farmed out)
For other key users like Tesla that create products defined by computational hardware and software—
It demonstrates the rapid trend away from standard chip sets, in favor of self determined specialized design and control, with fabrication (capital) farmed out.
This paints a picture for Tesla likely plans as volumes build along with expanding application profiles.
Particularly note separate chip sets for GPU, CPU, Neural, real time controllers, parallel processing, and security enclaves
Here’s a good summary of the Apple Bionic to help map to what Tesla might do
Inside iPhone 8: Apple's A11 Bionic introduces 5 new custom silicon engines
(Designed and owned by Apple, chip sets manufacturing farmed out)
For other key users like Tesla that create products defined by computational hardware and software—
It demonstrates the rapid trend away from standard chip sets, in favor of self determined specialized design and control, with fabrication (capital) farmed out.
This paints a picture for Tesla likely plans as volumes build along with expanding application profiles.
Particularly note separate chip sets for GPU, CPU, Neural, real time controllers, parallel processing, and security enclaves
Here’s a good summary of the Apple Bionic to help map to what Tesla might do
Inside iPhone 8: Apple's A11 Bionic introduces 5 new custom silicon engines
Reciprocity
Active Member
Focusing on whats in bold.. Even if competitors solve the manufacturing problems of EVs with profitability and battery supply/durability, they have no way to deal with the dealership issues where dealers cannot make any money selling or servicing EVs. And traditional autos will never ever be allowed to sell direct to end consumers. At least not without going bankrupt and being resurrected with no dealership agreements. Rock, meet hard place.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Dealers can still make money selling BEVs.
It just won't be enough to pay for those multi-million-dollar custom buildings they seem to love constructing by the freeways.
Like a lot of mature businesses, profits at all places along the chain are always under downward pressure, often via disruptions. It seems it just took longer to get to dealerships.
It just won't be enough to pay for those multi-million-dollar custom buildings they seem to love constructing by the freeways.
Like a lot of mature businesses, profits at all places along the chain are always under downward pressure, often via disruptions. It seems it just took longer to get to dealerships.
John Petersen over at SeekingAlpha has articles from 9+ months ago written in regard to both Cobalt supply issues and cathode powder production at the GF. The article I recall indicated that Tesla had diagrams originally for the GF with powder production, but that current evidence had been that it didn't exist (perhaps because the drums that press the powders onto the conducting substrates was the start of the tour -- can't remember). Anyway, he writes in a deliberately inflammatory and anti-Tesla manner but his facts and analysis are quite good.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
This looks like a horror show.
Social Democrats(20.6% of the vote) unwilling to enter grand coalition with Conservatives.
Greens(9% of the vote) will only enter a coalition with the Conservatives(33% of vote) if the Conservatives make the overwhelming amount of compromise.
Both the Social Democrats and the Greens are doing what is best for their party but not for Germany.
The Libertarians seem willing to compromise but only have 10.6% of the vote.
Conservatives unwilling to compromise with either the Fascist (12.8% of the vote) or the Communist (9.1% of the vote). And rightly so.
We are headed for weak unstable minority governments in Germany.
Bad for Germany,Europe, the Markets, and the world.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
"Tesla’s early production vehicles have often found themselves in Germany way ahead of their launch in Europe.
That’s because German automakers managed to get their hands on them to reverse-engineer the cars and learn from them.
For example, one of the first Model X in Europe was spotted near to Audi’s headquarters in Ingolstadt. The vehicle was a ‘Signature version’ reserved years ahead of production. Audi imported it from the US likely to benchmark or reverse engineer it.
Unfortunately for them, they didn’t realize that the US version of the car doesn’t have the same plug as European vehicles and an Audi engineer was even spotted stranded at a Tesla Supercharger station unsuccessfully trying to charge the electric SUV."
First Tesla Model 3 spotted in Germany
That’s because German automakers managed to get their hands on them to reverse-engineer the cars and learn from them.
For example, one of the first Model X in Europe was spotted near to Audi’s headquarters in Ingolstadt. The vehicle was a ‘Signature version’ reserved years ahead of production. Audi imported it from the US likely to benchmark or reverse engineer it.
Unfortunately for them, they didn’t realize that the US version of the car doesn’t have the same plug as European vehicles and an Audi engineer was even spotted stranded at a Tesla Supercharger station unsuccessfully trying to charge the electric SUV."
First Tesla Model 3 spotted in Germany
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